NBA Free Premium Play 03/05: Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors

Orlando   at Toronto

NBA - 503 Orlando Magic @ 504 Toronto Raptors Projected line: 189 points Toronto is coming from a win over Golden State yesterday in a low scoring game. The Warriors created some offense in the 1st half with David Lee leading the way for the Warriors with 16 points, but he would just score 6 points in the second half, as the Warriors saw their lead in the game slowly dwindle. The Raptors played some great defense in the second half with Jerryd Bayless and James Johnson, who guarded Monta Ellis and David Lee respectively, while Amir Johnson and Ed Davis also helped the team in completely stop the Warriors offense in the 2nd half. Basically what the Raptors did yesterday was to put pressure on Lee and Ellis and the other players from Golden State just didn't know what to do with the ball. With no interior game whatsoever, the Warriors saw their outside game was also ridiculous with 3-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 4-19 3pts, in a combined of 7-37 FG! On the other hand, Toronto used their usual small lineup, with the bench helping the team as well, especially Barbosa with a big game, as offensively Bayless, Kleiza and Davis shot a combined of just 3-19 FG! Toronto was also terrible at the rim with just 14-27 FG, with the backcourt not being able to be effective in the penetrations. On the outside, the Raptors struggled as usual and with such poor overall offense, the Raptors really won the game due to a great defensive game. The Raptors will play a back to back game, a tough spot even though it's a home-home spot for them. Over the last 3 back to back games, Toronto's defense wasn't good at all by allowing 119 offensive rates against Boston, 115.5 against Washington and 120 against the Spurs! Orlando is coming from three games in a row with very good offense: 119.5, 112.6 and 117.7 offensive rates. Their outside shooting continues to be very good, while their rebounding and ball movement have been very good as usual. During this span, they have also been amazing at the rim with 71% FG! Toronto will definitely have a defensive problem on this area, as even though they continue to be a very good team in defending at the rim with 58% FG allowed for the season and 54% FG over the last 5 games, they won't have any chance in defending Howard and the Magic outside shooters at the same time. Their small lineup won't help them in defending a well-balanced team like the Magic. Offensively, Toronto will attack fast in transition and especially with their fast guards who should have an edge over the slow footed guards of Orlando. Toronto is 4-0 ATS since the All Star break and they are currently playing very well. I believe they will take advantage of the offensive edge they will have in terms of backcourt, while they will definitely struggle in handling an on-fire offense of the Magic, especially when their frontcourt is so thin in depth right now. Therefore, I expect a game with both teams producing good offense in here. I have reached a totals projection of 189 points, high enough for me to take the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 185,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes