NBA 04/01 Advanced Stats Numbers

Detroit at Toronto						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DET	29	21	33	108		86.23	127.49	0.60	9.45	23.33	19.48
TOR	31	24	19	98			111.69	0.56	12.32	21.43	9.88
Cleveland at Atlanta						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CLE	25	24	26	94		90.26	104.61	0.52	13.78	22.86	11.11
ATL	27	27	23	102			112.51	0.51	11.49	21.74	23.46
Charlotte at Milwaukee						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CHAR	35	24	18	102		99.26	103.84	0.55	19.75	11.43	30.14
MIL	40	31	31	131			130.61	0.58	9.28	33.33	15.00
San Antonio at Memphis						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
SA	23	24	22	90		85.63	105.53	0.53	16.69	18.92	13.33
MEM	16	25	30	92			107.00	0.47	10.04	23.26	22.78
Orlando at Houston						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
ORL	29	31	29	103		93.56	109.21	0.45	8.91	29.17	20.43
HOU	33	25	21	111			119.60	0.49	7.71	37.04	14.29
Boston at Minnesota						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
BOS	27	26	22	100		95.06	107.21	0.56	16.32	20.59	11.11
MIN	30	27	26	110			113.58	0.51	9.53	11.76	30.12
Portland at Utah						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
POR	30	25	28	102		83.71	121.46	0.68	17.68	12.00	16.42
UTA	27	31	25	112			134.22	0.60	6.19	27.03	15.66
Indiana at L.A. Clippers						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
IND	22	30	28	109		86.76	127.12	0.62	15.26	29.03	29.58
LAC	22	22	41	106			120.75	0.52	13.28	35.00	28.75

MLB Premium Play 04/01: Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

MLB - 921 Seattle Mariners @ 922 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: F. Hernandez vs B. Anderson)

There isn't a lot to say about Felix Hernandez. He's a monster, he signed a mega deal on this offseason and if you think that he wouldn't be focused and distracted because of that, you need to check his Spring Training numbers: 17 strikeouts and 2 walks on his 4 appearances during Spring Training! I don't even need to mention his micro ERA on Spring Training because honestly these numbers don't mean a lot. But what it matters in here is his absurdly great control is already making victims this season.

Oakland is coming from a phenomenal last season, with some incredible clutch pitching and hitting. However, I expect them to regress this season, while I also expect Seattle to improve, as their offense should be much better this season than it was last season. This left a good indication of that in the preseason with some interesting offensive numbers, with batters like Kendrys Morales and Michael Morse boosting the team's offensive numbers, while even Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez had surprisingly good Spring Training numbers. Brett Anderson will start for Oakland today and he had a rough Spring Training with some injuries (as usual, this time it's the shoulder bothering him). He didn't show a good control and the current Mariners's roster is batting a robust .302 BA against him! 

Seattle will have a clear pitching edge tonight and in my opinion, they will also have some hitting edge tonight with their improved offense. Therefore, I'll be taking the Mariners tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Seattle Mariners ML (w/ F. Hernandez) @ +101 / 2.01 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 04/01: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers

MLB - 907 Colorado Rockies @ 908 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Chacin vs Y. Gallardo)

We are a huge mismatch on pitching in this contest, something that will be decisive for an easy win for the Brewers today. Yovani Gallardo is getting consolidated as one of the most consistent pitchers in the league and he didn't have major problems during Spring Training. Colorado's offense can be dangerous and won't be an easy matchup for him, but I expect Gallardo to manage the damage well today.

The problem for the Rockets for today (and for the rest of the season) will be their pitching. Jhoulys Chacin will be the team's starting pitcher today and he is very far from having the status of a pure ace on this league. Chacin had a horrible Spring Training with a 8.44 ERA, while allowing batters to hit .362 BA against him. That wouldn't be very problematic for today if it wasn't for the fact that he struggled with locating his fastball and this can be catastrophic because he is used to throw fastballs 60% of the time on his pitching! It was also recently revealed that he is dealing with back spasms and Chacin will be in one of the worst spots possible when a pitcher is struggling: facing Milwaukee on the road! Therefore, I expect an easy home win for the Brewers today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 Milwaukee Brewers (w/ Y. Gallardo) @ -148 / 1.68 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 04/01: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB - 905 Chicago Cubs @ 906 Pittsburgh Pirates
(Starting Pitchers: J. Samardzija vs A. Burnett)

I believe we have nice value on the Cubs as road underdogs today. The Pirates will send their ace Burnett to the mount today, who is coming from his best season since he signed a mega deal with the NY Yankees a few seasons ago. However, Burnett has said recently that he might retire by the end of this season, something that makes me believe that he won't be focused at this start of the season. He pitched for just 11 innings during Spring Training and without great results. Of course it was just the preseason, but I really don't like his spot for today's game.

Nobody likes the Cubs and once again nobody expects them to be decent this season. However, in my opinion, they are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now. But what I really like today is Samardzija's matchup against the Pirates's offense. He had a breakout season last year with an elite 180/56 K/BB ratio in 174.1 innings! He absolutely dominated the Pirates twice last season with a 1.06 ERA and 14/2 K/BB ratio, while the Pirates's batters had a ridiculous 0.091 BA against him! The good news for the Cubs is that Samardzija enjoyed a pretty good Spring Training, while showing some impeccable control: 14/0 K/BB ratio! Therefore, I see value on the Cubs as a road underdog today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ J. Samardzija) @ +118 / 2.18 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/01: Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Clippers

NBA - 745 Indiana Pacers @ 746 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Line: 185 points

We will have a pure halfcourt battle in here. The Clippers have been playing at a ridiculously slow pace lately by averaging a pace factor of 87.2 on their last 10 games! If we exclude their game at Houston that was a run and gun game due to the Rockets, the Clippers's three previous games at Dallas, at New Orleans and at San Antonio had ridiculous slow paces of 89.06, 79.62 and 84.23 respectively! They will now face Indiana, a team that will be more than glad to play on halfcourt tonight. The Pacers are #1 in the league on transition defense and without their usual fast break points, the Clippers are completely dependent from Chris Paul on halfcourt, while the Pacers's great interior defense will limit Blake Griffin. The Clippers's PF had a great game at Indiana earlier on the season with 7-10 FG, 18 points and 14 rebounds, but Roy Hibbert didn't play due to the suspension and that was the main reason why Blake had a great performance against the Pacers. 

Indiana is coming from a win at Phoenix, on a very high scoring game, something that wasn't a surprise for me as I took the Over in that game on a Triple Dime Play! Phoenix's defense was too undersized to defend Indiana's frontcourt and so, Roy Hibbert shot 7-17 FG and David West 6-11 FG, while the Pacers as a team scored 50 points in the paint. Roy Hibbert has been much better on offense lately than earlier on the season, however he had easy matchups on his team's last three games against Houston, Dallas and Phoenix. The Clippers will be a much tougher obstacle, as the LA team has allowed just 62% FG at the rim on their last 10 games, while they are also a top 10 team in the league on post up defense. I expect a slow paced game, where both defenses will outplay the opposing offenses, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 745/746 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/01: Charlotte Bobcats @ Milwaukee Bucks

NBA - 741 Charlotte Bobcats @ 742 Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Line: 210 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Charlotte's defense keeps struggling and their defensive ratings on their last eight games show exactly that: 120.46; 121.47; 109.09; 103.99; 123.25; 118.52; 125.41; 118.53! However, the good news for them is that their offense with Josh McRoberts, Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson is now quite decent, as their offensive ratings on their last seven games show: 127.11; 120.37; 100.84; 83.62 (@Miami on a terrible spot); 123.29; 113.47; 106.34! The Bobcats's offense depends a lot from the play from their guards Walker and Henderson, so the Bobcats should be fine for today, as Milwaukee's backcourt defense is quite poor. The Bucks like to play at a fast tempo, something that only benefits the Bobcats's offense as well.

The problem for Charlotte tonight is that I expect Milwaukee to have a big offensive game as well. That's not tough to do against Charlotte, but they have especially a nice bounce back spot for tonight, after their key players struggled against Oklahoma City on their last game, with Monta Ellis shooting 3-17 FG, Brandon Jennings 3-13 FG, J.J. Redick 4-12 FG and Mike Dunleavy 0-2 FG, for a combined shooting of 10-44 (22%) FG. Therefore, the fired up Bucks's backcourt should have no problems in crushing the Bobcats's terrible defense tonight. Charlotte is especially poor on pick and roll ball handler defense and spot up defense, therefore there isn't a single excuse for the Bucks's backcourt not to have a huge offensive game tonight.

I expect this game to be a fast paced contest, especially because Milwaukee's Coach Jim Boylan has mentioned that his team needs to play even faster than what they've been doing lately.

"I'd like for us to play to our strength," Bucks coach Jim Boylan said. "We talked about that in the game against the Lakers, about trying to get up and down the floor with a little more pace to our offense. We've got to be more concerned about our identity as opposed to who we're playing against. I know the Milwaukee Bucks team is at its best when we're playing that way, when we're outletting the ball and we're getting down the floor, our big guys are running and we're playing in transition. That's just like a lot of NBA teams. So that's what we're trying to focus on right now from an offensive standpoint."

On a fast paced game and with Milwaukee having a natural offensive bounce back game against the lowly Bobcats, while Charlotte's offense should also be quite decent against Milwaukee's poor backcourt defense, I can only expect this game to be a very high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 741/742 Over 203,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/01: San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 739 San Antonio Spurs @ 740 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: Memphis by 9 points

San Antonio hasn't been playing well lately. Offensively, Tony Parker has been brilliant in some moments, but he is still lacking some physical resistance. The Spurs's second unit is heavily struggling right now and they are also being killed on the boards. Defensively, San Antonio has been really solid since they allowed 113 points against Cleveland three weeks ago. San Antonio doesn't have an easy spot tonight. They will play  a back to back game on the road against the physical Grizzlies, especially when San Antonio is coming from consecutive close games against Utah, Houston, Denver, the LA Clippers and Miami, where Tim Duncan had to play major minutes.

So, no wonder that Tim Dunan and Kawhi Leonard won't play tonight. This is very worrying for the Spurs, as their second unit is now being constantly outplayed. Memphis is fighting for the #3 seed in the West and they will absolutely crush the Spurs on the glass tonight. The Grizzlies struggled after playing some brutal physical games at Denver, at Utah and at home against Oklahoma City, but they seem to be recovered from this effort and back at their best level. This has been confirmed with two easy wins over Houston and Minnesota on their last two games. The Grizzlies won't be relaxing tonight, as they will face a divisional rival in San Antonio. Without Duncan, not only the Spurs lose a lot on offense, as without him, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will crush the Spurs's defense down low as well. Therefore, I'll be taking Memphis tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 740 Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline