Soccer Premium Card 08/30

Soccer Pick #1: Manchester City vs. Stoke City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Stoke City (+2) @ -122 / 1.82 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -124 / 1.81 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

I understand that Man City is almost unbeatable at home and they are coming from a great cynical display against Liverpool this past Monday. However I feel that this is a letdown spot for them after their tremendous effort in that game and more importantly, I expect Stoke City to be a tough tactical matchup for them.

Stoke City has a “poor” start of the season w/ one home loss vs. A. Villa and a late draw @Hull City in the last week. In both games, Stoke City faced two teams w/ conservative mindsets. Aston Villa was looking to get a 0-0 draw and after they scored their goal, they closed their defensive line. While last week, Hull City played w/ 10 men early on, scored one goal late in the first half and obviously, they wanted to hold the lead. As improved as Stoke City looks on the paper, they don’t have the proper talent on the front to dismantle packed defensive lines.

This won’t happen today vs. Man City as City will charge on the front since the start. Stoke City’s good tactical organization will make City work hard in here. In the last season, Stoke lost only 0-1 @Man City, so I expect a narrow win from City today.

Soccer Pick #2: Queens Park Rangers vs. Sunderland

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 2 @ -118 / 1.85 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -119 / 1.84 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

This 2-goals line is just too short for me! QPR was a huge disappointment in the last week as our play w/ them (+1.25) really didn’t have a chance to cash since the first minute of the game. Their defense has been awful in both games as players seem to not understand their positioning. I expect Sunderland to take advantage of this and score one goal at least.

On the other end, even though QPR is yet to score a goal in the league, they created plenty of chances to score in both games and some of them, were really some incredible misses! Sunderland has allowed goals in both games so far in this season and sooner or later, QPR will score a goal due to their offensive volume and I think that this will start today.

Soccer Pick #3: Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Newcastle United (-0.5) @ -128 / 1.78 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

Newcastle United is desperate to get a win after two decent performances to start the season but just one point on the standings. Their pace has been great offensively, they are creating some chances especially via Rémy Cabella but their finishing has been poor to say the least. For this contest, Siem de Jong will finally start for them so I expect their attack to keep producing good quality chances and eventually they will capitalize their chances.

On the other end, Palace has been a mess! At least they have finally a new coach but they didn’t have the proper time to adjust to his methods. Their performance vs. West Ham in the last week was awful and honestly, I don’t think that they will improve so dramatically in a matter of days.

Soccer Pick #4: Swansea City vs. W.B.A.

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Swansea City (-0.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -116 / 1.86 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

I expect W.B.A. to have a similar approach as of the last week’s game @Southampton: conservative mindset, gave the ball possession to the opponent (Saints had 58% ball poss. in that game) and try to make danger w/ quick counter attacks using the speed of Ideye on the front.

That plan “worked” as W.B.A. got a point so I would be surprised if suddenly they bring a pro-active game plan for this contest.

Swansea City has been a nice surprise in this season w/ 2 wins in the first 2 games. Note that I was not impressed w/ their second half performance against Burnley in the last week as Burnley could easily tied the game w/ better finishing on the front. The difference between Swansea and Southampton is that the Welsh side has a better offensive flow right now. They attack from both wings, they have a pure striker on the front in Bony and Sigurdsson is looking great playing behind him. While Southampton struggled to create build ups plays vs. packed W.B.A. defensive line, I think that Swansea’s well oiled offensive machine won’t have such problems and will win this contest.

Soccer Pick #5: Everton vs. Chelsea

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Chelsea (-0.25) @ -113 / 1.88 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -117 / 1.85 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

Great game in perspective! Chelsea suffered their first loss of the season last year @Everton, so Jose Mourinho wants some revenge. Everton looked great vs. Arsenal last week for the first 75 minutes of the game. However, they faced a tired Arsenal’ midfield unit and I must say a “soft” midfield unit as well, so Everton dominated the game through their edge on the midfield. It looks like Steven Pienaar is OUT and his absence is HUGE in my opinion because Everton’s left side w/ Baines + Pienaar has been their strongest link so far in this season.

Unlike Arsenal, Chelsea has a potent midfield line that won’t be controlled that easy! Everton lack of concentration in set-pieces early on the season could be deadly vs. a team like Chelsea. Man City and Chelsea have been way ahead when compared to the rest of the competition and this -0.25 line for Chelsea in this contest has some nice value.