MLB Premium Card 08/11

MLB - 953 St. Louis Cardinals @ 954 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: S. Miller vs. T. Koehler)

Play #1

Shelby Miller has put an extra gear since the All Star break w/ 12/1 K/BB ratio in 3 quality starts! He has made some changes on his game w/ great success! STL is also “saving him” as he usually doesn’t top 90’s pitches.

On the other end, T. Koehler is coming from a subpar performance on his last start. I had a play w/ him but he got pounded by PIT in the first inning. However, note that after such awful 1st inning, he threw 5 consecutive scoreless innings. Like Miller, Koehler has been solid since the All Star break.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 8 (w/ S. Miller & T. Koehler) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

MLB - 957 Milwaukee Brewers @ 958 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Gallardo vs. J. Arrieta)

Play #2

Both Pitchers are coming from awful starts and therefore, I expect them to bounce back pretty strong today.

Jake Arrieta fell completely apart in the 6th of his last start @COL. It was his first bad start for a long time! He has some splendid numbers vs. RH batters w/ .201 BA + .230 wOBA + 2.16 FIP + 2.82 xFIP and these are good news against a righty-heavy lineup of MIL!

On the other end, after dominating in b2b starts, Gallardo was pounded by the Giants on his last start. I have the Cubs ranked #29 vs. RHP’s this season, so Gallardo couldn’t choose a better matchup for his bounce back.

I feel that this is going to be a pitcher’s duel!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 7 (w/ Y. Gallardo & J. Arrieta) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

MLB - 961 New York Yankees @ 962 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: C. Capuano vs. B. Norris)

Play #3

I see some value w/ NYY at this price vs. BAL’s SP Bud Norris…

Chris Capuano is coming from 3 interesting games – all after All Star break and all w/ a NYY uniform. He has a stellar 13/1 K/BB ratio on his L2 starts and an even more impressive 1.18 & 1.55 FIP to show on those games! The last start was particular impressive if we take in account that he faced #2 offense in the league vs. LHP’s (DET!).

On the other end, Norris is also coming from a quality start @TOR! He is a bit inconsistent… in his career he doesn’t have good numbers vs. LH batters and NYY current roster has 80 AB’s against him w/ nice marks of .275 BA + .825 OPS!


1. Brett Gardner (L) LF
2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
3. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
5. Carlos Beltran (S) DH
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B
7. Stephen Drew (L) 2B
8. Martin Prado (R) RF
9. Francisco Cervelli (R) C
NYY will load the lineup w/ LH batters so I expect him to struggle a bit tonight

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 961 New York Yankees ML (w/ C. Capuano) @ +111 / 2.11 on Betonline

MLB - 965 Minnesota Twins @ 966 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: T. Milone vs. B. Peacock)

Play #4

MIN is coming from a series vs. best team in the league in which they scored 5, 4 & 6 runs in the L3 games all vs. decent pitchers. For tonight, I expect them to make some damage vs. Brad Peacock who has a god awful 10.86 FIP & 7.18 xFIP to show in the second half of season!

MIN will send Tommy Milone to the mound and he was decent pitching for the A’s. Obviously, he is not “ace material” and that’s why OAK choose to bolster their pitching staff, but I expect him to remain decent and therefore, I expect MIN to win this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 965 Minnesota Twins (w/ T. Milone) @ -111 / 1.90 on Betonline

MLB - 967 Oakland Athletics @ 968 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: S. Gray vs. Y. Ventura)

Play #5

Right now, I'm just riding w/ red hot Royals at home while being priced as Underdogs.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ Y. Ventura) @ -101 / 1.99 on Bookmaker

MLB - 969 Toronto Blue Jays @ 970 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: D. Hutchison vs. F. Hernandez)

Play #6

It was tough to watch the Tigers squander a huge lead yesterday against the Blue Jays, but the 19-innings marathon opened us a good situation spot to fade TOR for tonight. That game lasted 6:37 and TOR had to make a huge trip for SEA and they will face one of the best pitchers of the game in Felix Hernandez! I understand that King Felix has struggled a bit vs. TOR in his career, but this is a good spot for him.

On the other end, D. Hutchison is coming from a superb outing against BAL in which he allowed only one hit in 8.1 IP’s! However, note that he threw 115 pitches and had only 4days off for tonight. He struggles a bit vs. LH batters and SEA usually puts 5 to 7 LH’s batters on the lineup = FADE Spot!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 970 Seattle Mariners RL-1.5 (w/ F. Hernandez) @ +100 / 2.00 on 5 Dimes