MLB Premium Card 08/07

MLB - 953 San Francisco Giants @ 954 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Peavy vs. W. Peralta)

Play #1

***EARLY PLAY***

We are coming from our worst day of the season w/ 0-7 ATS in our MLB plays. Still we are having a profitable season and I must remember that this is a marathon and not a sprint, bounce back time! For this contest, I feel that the Giants are underpriced as my fair line is close to a 50/50 proposition. MIL’s SP Wily Peralta is showing a nice 2.33 ERA in his L3 starts but his advanced numbers don’t support him in those 3 starts: 5.67 FIP & 4.83 xFIP w/ a subpar 10/9 K/BB ratio! Conversely, we have the opposite w/ Jake Peavy: 4.85 ERA in his L3 starts but his advanced numbers were better w/ 3.91 FIP & 4.00 xFIP! He has also some good numbers vs. RH batters w/ 3.61 FIP & 3.88 xFIP – something pivotal against this MIL lineup, loaded w/ RH batters!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ J. Peavy) @ +124 / 2.24 on Bookmaker

MLB - 961 Baltimore Orioles @ 962 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: M. Gonzalez vs. J. Happ)

Play #2

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

TOR did their job for us yesterday by scoring 5 runs while smacking 12 hits… I expect them to do some damage once again vs. Miguel Gonzalez. We’ve faded Miguel Gonzalez on his last start saying:

“I’m primarily fading Miguel Gonzalez in this matchup. He is a prime candidate for a regression in this season half of season as his 3.77 ERA mark does not compute his advanced stats line: 4.47 SIERA + 5.14 FIP & 4.67 xFIP! He has faced this same SEA team in his last start and even though he allowed just 1 ER in 6.0 IP’s, note that he had a poor ½ K/BB ratio and way worst 3.80 FIP & 6.32 xFIP numbers vs. his 1.50 game log ERA mark. It was his 1st start vs. SEA in his career! For today, I don’t think that he will be so “lucky”… pitching @BAL is different than @SEA and more importantly, SEA’s batters will be more prepared this time.”

Well, we were successful as we won our play w/ SEA as Gonzalez struggled heavily w/ 7.20 ERA + 8.54 FIP + 4.34 xFIP! TOR’s offense is stronger than SEA’s and they are coming from b2b games batting + .333 BA!

On the other end, Happ has made 3 consecutive quality starts since the All Star break. He dominated the Astros on his last start w/ 7 strong innings by allowing just 1 ER! Note that HOU is a top 10 team vs. LHP’s this season, so he excelled in a tough matchup – a good sign for tonight!

We have a pitching mismatch favoring TOR and I think that they won’t this chance to win the contest and therefore, I’m taking them as my Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 962 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ J. Happ) @ -113 / 1.88 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 963 Minnesota Twins @ 964 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Pino vs. J. Lester)

Play #3

While I expect Jon Lester to be decent in this contest, I expect MIN’s SP Yohan Pino to struggle heavily in this matchup against OAK’s lineup.

Pino’s numbers are a bit strange to say the least w/ an extreme fly ball rate w/ 46.8% FB%. Even though the sample is small, I just can’t ignore his struggles against Left-Handed Pitchers: .303 BA + .358 wOBA!

We are yet to see OAK’s lineup for today, but we can expect them to load their lineup w/ LH’s batters. They constantly insert 7 to 8 LH batters in the lineup vs. RHP’s! 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 964 Oakland Athletics RL-1.5 (w/ J. Lester) @ -119  / 1.84 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 965 Chicago White Sox @ 966 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: S. Carroll vs. R. Ellis)

Play #4

SEA’s SP Roenis Elias struggled heavily in his L3 starts before the All Star break, most likely he was tired because after getting some “rest”, he bounced back strong and made 3 great quality outings in which his advanced number FIP was really great w/ 1.20, 2.54 & 1.26! He had 5 days off for tonight, and so, I expect him to be decent tonight.

On the other end, MIN’s SP Scott Carroll is “due” for a subpar performance. He was decent in his L2 starts (both vs. CWS) but his awful split numbers vs. LH batters (.298 BA + .370 wOBA + 4.92 FIP & 4.90 xFIP!) can be a problem against the Mariners.

SEA’s lineup from yesterday had 6 LH batters:

1. Austin Jackson (R) CF
2. Dustin Ackley (L) LF
3. Robinson Cano (L) 2B
4. Kendrys Morales (S) DH
5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B
6. Chris Taylor (R) SS
7. Logan Morrison (L) 1B
8. Endy Chavez (L) RF
9. Jesus Sucre (R) C

After enjoying their best offensive performance in a while, I expect SEA to take advantage of this favorable matchup.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Seattle Mariners RL-1.5 (w/ R. Ellis) @ +110 / 2.10 on 5 Dimes