English Premier League Premium Card Round 2 08/23

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Newcastle (+0.25) @ -128 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

(Note that this contest is going to be played @7:45 AM EST / 1:45PM CET!)

We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.

The problem is that by playing at home, Villa are “pressured” to use a more offensive style – something that they tend to struggle especially without their two top forwards in Benteke and Libor Kozák.

Newcastle United was a nice surprise against the champions Man City. They lost 0-2 but they were not that far from squeezing a draw in that game. Their new signings (especially Cabella and Riviere) were dynamic and Newcastle showed some great speed on the front w/ their mobile forwards. Like Villa did in Round 1 against Stoke City, Newcastle can be pretty dangerous on the counter. Villa didn’t concede much space on the back vs. Stoke City, but by playing at home in front of their fans, they will use a more offensive style and therefore, Newcastle will enjoy some space after recovering the ball.

Aston Villa struggled badly at home in the last season and by using the same exact style of play, I wouldn’t be surprised if those home struggles carry on for this new season.

Newcastle (PK) has some value but I like more the +0.25 AH line as long as the line is “better”  than -135 / 1.71, so I’m taking the visitors in this contest.

Soccer Pick #2: Premier League - Leicester City @ Chelsea

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Chelsea (-1.75) @ -121 / 1.83 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -123 / 1.81 on Betonline)

Detailed write up:

Chelsea looked completely dominant in the first half against Burnley, even though they suffered an early goal. As usual, they pressured high on the pitch but this time around, they had the proper offensive flair that was lacking in the last season via the “Fabregas” factor.

Fabregas’ skilled passes made the ultimate difference in that game! Chelsea struggled last season against the lower level competition because they lacked the proper creativity to open up games vs. packed defenses. Oscar was a factor early on the season but he completely disappeared on the second half of season.

In a typical Jose Mourinho style, once Chelsea scored their third goal, they were focused in controlling the game without spending much energy, so the rest of the match was “boring” to say the least.

In this first home match of the season, I think that Mourinho wants to put a show in front of his fans. I just can’t see Chelsea’s being happy to hold a one-goal lead through the entire second half!

We cashed w/ Leicester City in their first game vs. Everton as they scored a late goal to tie the game 2-2. Their coach made some nice tactical adjustments in the second half after being completely outplayed in the first half. Nevertheless, Everton was the better team in that game as Leicester is still adjusting to the Premier League.

Soccer Pick #3: Premier League - W.B.A @ Southampton

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Southampton (-0.5) @ -116 / 1.86 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -115 / 1.87 on Betonline)

Detailed write up:

I’m fading once again West Brom in this round after going against them in their first game vs. Sunderland.

They draw 2-2 in that game and I must say that I wasn’t impressed w/ their performance. Actually, they scored the first goal via a non-existent penalty kick and globally, they looked to me a prime candidate to be relegated in this season.

I can’t say the same about Southampton as they looked pretty good against Liverpool. With innumerous departures and some others signings, I thought that they would need some time to find a proper chemistry between them but I wrong as they looked sharp in some moments of the game. Actually, they could have easily grabbed one point from Anfield.

With such advanced team chemistry displayed in their first official game of the season, I expect them to cruise past W.B.A. today.

Soccer Pick #4: Premier League - Burnley @ Swansea City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Both Teams To Score @ -119 / 1.84 on Pinnacle Sports 

Detailed write up:

Swansea City was the major highlight of the first round by knocking down Man Utd on the road. It wasn’t a complete surprise for me because I expected them to do some damage offensively as they really have some nice talent on the front!

They held Man Utd to just one goal but I think that it was more about United’s lack of offensive flow especially from the wings than exactly Swansea being a top defensive team.

My notes about them in that game didn’t change for this contest:

“The Welsh side made a decent pre-season and they look more dangerous on the front than exactly having a stronger defense. I expect them to struggle defensively early on the season as they lost some key defensive players in this offseason like Vorm, Ben Davis and more recently Chico Flores.”

One thing I liked about Burnley in their game vs. Chelsea was that they have some courage. They didn’t “park the bus” against one of the best EPL teams, they wanted to play a fair game and obviously, I expect them to have the same approach against this inferior class opponent.

This will be a fun game to watch, a open game and therefore, I expect both teams to score at least one goal.

Soccer Pick #5: Premier League - Arsenal @ Everton

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ -102 / 1.98 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

Arsenal's starting lineup won't feature a traditional striker as both Sonogo & Giroud were relegated to the bench. Wenger will try to control the game in the midfield and this is not a good start for a potential high scoring game. Arsenal plays a pivotal game vs. Besiktas in this midweek and so, I expect them to control the game by playing in a possession slow-tempo oriented football.