MLB - 959 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 960 Arizona Diamondbacks
(Starting Pitchers: E. Volquez vs. V. Nuno)
Play #2
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
He is coming from 2 subpar outings right after the All Star break, but let me say that he has faced the Dodgers and the Rockies @COL – two tough matchups in this league right now, so his struggles weren’t such a big surprise.
I think that if Volquez keeps his walks numbers in check, he will be fine! Well, ARI is ranked #28 in the league w/ just 6.3% BB% rate (their L14 days numbers aren’t much different w/ 6.4% BB% rate, ranked #26 in the league!), that’s why I think that this ARI offense is a favorable matchup for him.
On the other end, I’m fading Vidal Nuno as he is coming from an outing in which he threw 117 pitches + just 4 days off rest for tonight.
His stats line for the season is extremely pedestrian w/ 4.97 ERA + 5.05 FIP + 4.35 xFIP! The fact that he is a “fly ball” pitcher w/ FB% rate of 43.8% in the season won’t help him pitching @ARI park.
The Pirates are looking to bounce back tonight and this pitching edge for them is key and therefore, I’m taking them as my Top Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 959 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ E. Volquez) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
MLB - 963 Atlanta Braves @ 964 San Diego Padres
(Starting Pitchers: M. Minor vs. E. Stults)
Play #3
Mike Minor was “OK” in that game as he allowed 3ER’s in 6.2 IP’s of work but his advanced numbers once again didn’t impress at all w/ 5.68 FIP & 3.30 xFIP! On the other end, Stults struggled once again as he was blasted in the 3rd inning by allowing 6 ER’s. ATL offense is decent vs. LHP’s by being ranked #13 OPS and Stults’ lack of “K” stuff won’t take advantage of ATL’s prone to be K’ed.
My fair line for this contest is 8 runs and so, we have some nice value w/ the OVER in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 7 (w/ M. Minor & E. Stults) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker
MLB - 979 Colorado Rockies @ 980 Detroit Tigers
(Starting Pitchers: F. Morales vs. J. Verlander)
Play #4
I can’t recall seeing such horrific numbers from a starter than Morales’ latest starts stats. He is coming from a miracle performance vs. PIT because he allowed “just” 2 ER’s in 4IP’s even though he issued 5 walks + 6 hits! He has now 20/19 K/BB ratio in his last 6 starts! His L4 opponent’s ranks (season numbers) vs. LHP’s:
Ele tem estes nrs fraquissimos e nem defrontou top offenses….
PIT #24
WAS #7
SD #30
LAD #21
CLE #27
Only WAS is a top10 offense vs. LHP! He will face the #2 ranked DET offense vs. LHP’s that is coming off a loss, good luck!
On the other end, Verlander simply can’t reach “ace” level. We can expect him to allow 3 or 4 runs per outing… That is why I’ve faded him in his last start vs. LAA. COL offense can be super unpredictable, but they have the proper power to be a tough matchup for Verlander in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 9 (w/ F. Morales & J. Verlander) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker
MLB - 951 Philadelphia Phillies @ 952 Washington Nationals
MLB - 975 Minnesota Twins @ 976 Chicago White SoxMLB - 977 Kansas City Royals @ 978 Oakland Athletics
(Starting Pitchers: R. Hernandez vs. D. Fister)
(Starting Pitchers: L. Darnell vs. C. Sale)(Starting Pitchers: J. Guthrie vs. S. Gray)
***PARLAY PLAY***
Play #5
I just refuse to make 3 RL’s plays in here and hope for the best w/ 9 units on the table. Instead, I’m parlaying all these 3 teams w/ just 3 units of stake for a nice outcome.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 3-Teams Parlay 952 Washington Nationals ML x 976 Chicago White Sox x 978 Oakland Athletics ML @ +188 / 2.88 on Betonline
MLB - 955 San Francisco Giants @ 956 New York Mets
(Starting Pitchers: R. Vogelsong vs. J. Niese)
Play #1
I think that we have some value w/ SFG in this matchup as long as they are receiving odds of being the Underdog… my fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 line.
The Giants will throw Ryan Vogelsong to the mound, and he has been solid lately (except on weird start @PHI). He kept the red hot LAD team in check by allowing just 2 ER’s in 6.0 IP’s of work. His advanced numbers of 2.30 FIP & 3.77 xFIP in that game was a good sign and I expect him to be decent tonight.
On the other end, I’m fading Jon Niese who has struggled in b2b starts after coming off the DL after allowing 3 & 4 ER’s vs. MIL & SEA. I’ve checked his game log numbers in fangraphs.com and one key factor has alerted me: his zone% in both games! For the season, his average Zone% has been 50.0%, but he had 43.2% & 41.9% in those two games – both numbers are way off vs. his season mark! I think that he might need a bit more time to regain his old form and therefore, I’m taking the Giants in here @plus money!
The Giants will throw Ryan Vogelsong to the mound, and he has been solid lately (except on weird start @PHI). He kept the red hot LAD team in check by allowing just 2 ER’s in 6.0 IP’s of work. His advanced numbers of 2.30 FIP & 3.77 xFIP in that game was a good sign and I expect him to be decent tonight.
On the other end, I’m fading Jon Niese who has struggled in b2b starts after coming off the DL after allowing 3 & 4 ER’s vs. MIL & SEA. I’ve checked his game log numbers in fangraphs.com and one key factor has alerted me: his zone% in both games! For the season, his average Zone% has been 50.0%, but he had 43.2% & 41.9% in those two games – both numbers are way off vs. his season mark! I think that he might need a bit more time to regain his old form and therefore, I’m taking the Giants in here @plus money!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ R. Vogelsong) @ +112 / 2.12 on Bookmaker
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