Soccer Premium Card 10/01

Soccer Pick #1: Zenit Petersburg vs Monaco

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Zenit Petersburg @ -134 / 1.74 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

Both teams have won their respective games in the first round but while Zenit looked stronger and dominated their game vs. SL Benfica, Monaco got some “lucky” by defeating Germans Leverkusen 1-0.

Obviously, things got easier for Zenit when Benfica’s GK was sent off and they almost immediately scored the second goal, so the game was decided in the first 30 minutes of the match. However, in this initial span, Zenit looked impressive w/ their pace, pressure and objectivity. Their coach Villas Boas apparently knows how to motivate his players and Zenit is the #1 team in this group in my opinion.

On the other end, Monaco is struggling in their domestic league to start the season but they were able to defeat Leverkusen in the first round. Without Falcao and James Rodriguez, they don’t have much firepower on the front (no surprise in here) and they needed a midfielder Joao Moutinho to score the winning goal! Their offensive “stats” in that game says it all: 4 total shots, 1 shot on target (the goal) & just 2 chances created! Zenit's defense was improved for this season w/ the additions of Garay and Javi Garcia, and I expect them to hold Monaco's poor offense quite easily today.

Although Monaco held Leverkusen scoreless, note that the Germans had several chances to score at least one goal but they just couldn’t score! Their offensive stats for the game: 13 total shots, 2 shots on target and 10 chances created! Still, Monaco won the game… Zenit is playing w/ some technical lighting pace forwards on the front who change constantly their position and will take advantage especially of Ricardo Carvalho's slow footed ability on the back.

We are talking about two teams w/ different skill sets w/ Zenit being way superior in this matchup, therefore, I'm taking Zenit to win this contest.

Some notes that I've made for today:

Bayer Leverkusen vs Benfica

I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch w/ both teams bringing a pro-active approach to the field.

I had a play w/ Both Teams to Score in Benfica’s first game vs. Zenit in which we lost because Benfica couldn’t score a goal. I can just guess, but I’m pretty sure that Benfica would score one goal if not the fact that their GK Artur was sent off in the 18th minute and therefore, Benfica played more than 70 minutes w/ 10 men! Nevertheless, the Portuguese team attempted 17 shots & created 14 chances to score despite playing almost 80% of the time w/ one man down! They attack using both their full-backs from the wings and currently they have a youngster Brazilian player that his making some strides in the domestic league: Anderson Talisca!

As I’ve mentioned on my Zenit vs. Monaco write up, Leverkusen had several chances to score against Monaco in the first round but wasted them all. I expect them to play at their usual tempo and explore Benfica’s poor defensive line. Last season, Benfica had one of the best defensive lines in Europa but this isn’t the case anymore: their GK situation is messed up as Artur doesn’t have the proper skill set to start in a team like Benfica & Julio Cesar lacks the proper fitness level to play right now. Garay is gone, Siqueira is gone and finally, their defensive midfielder Samaris is still adapting to the team! There are too many holes on their defense and the opponents are taking advantage of it, Leverkusen will have their chances too.

LEAN: OVER 2.5 Goals

Anderlecht vs Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund completely crushed Arsenal in the first round! They scored two goals but they should have scored more as their offensive production was impressive w/ 23 total shots & 15 chances created! We lost our Over 2.75 Goals Play because Arsenal looked awful, but it wouldn’t be a shock if Dortmund scored 4 or 5 goals, unfortunately it didn’t happen.

The problem for Dortmund this season is primarily related w/ their defense. After that game vs. Arsenal, they played 3 domestic league games and they have allowed 2 goals in each game.  

Anderlecht is coming from a nice draw @Galatasary in a game where they looked the better team in the first 70 minutes before having a physical letdown later in the game. They didn’t went to Turkey searching for one point while packing their defense and hope for the best, no! They tried to win the game w/ a pro-active mindset: 12 totals shots & 11 chances created!

The problem for Anderlecht is that they are a young team prone to commit individual errors and obviously, Dortmund has plenty of firepower on the front to make some damage.

With both teams wanting to win and play positive football, I expect some goals and therefore, I’m taking the OVER in here.

LEAN: OVER 2.75 Goals

Arsenal vs Galatasaray

Here's a good article about the poor state of mind of the Turkish team: http://www.thescore.com/chlg/news/593018

I'm fading them as after losing the first game, Arsenal will bring some sense of urgency to the field in here.

LEAN: Arsenal -1

Soccer Premium Card 09/30

Soccer Pick #1: FC Schalke 04 vs Maribor
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5) @ -113 / 1.88 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -119 / 1.84 on Betonline)


Soccer Pick #2: Manchester City vs. AS Roma
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Manchester City (-0.75) @ -133 / 1.75 on Pinnacle Sports 

Soccer Pick #3: BATE Borisov vs Athletic Bilbao
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Athletic Bilbao (-0.5) @ -111 / 1.90 on Pinnacle Sports 

Soccer Premium Card 09/29

Soccer Pick #1 & #2: Stoke City vs. Newcastle United

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Stoke City (-0.25) @ -115 / 1.87 on SBOBet (OR -116 / 1.86 on Betonline)

Pick: Over 2.25 Goals @ -103 / 1.97 on SBOBet (OR -109 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes))

Detailed Write Up:

Newcastle’s situation is a mess, here some news from them:

“On Friday night, the billionaire club owner’s lawyers, insisted those comments, which were made late on Thursday night in a London bar, were a joke and intended to be tongue in cheek.

But the strength of the remarks will still shock Newcastle fans, whose team are bottom of the Premier League.

“He’s got one more game,” Ashley said. “If we lose against Stoke on Monday night then he’s gone. I have had enough.”

Making a throat-cutting gesture, Ashley added: “Dead. Finished. Over. One more game then that’s it. What would you do? I have spent a lot of money on that club, it’s cost me a lot. I won’t put up with it any more. Honestly, answer me, what would you do? One more loss and he’s gone, he’s over, finished.””

Obviously, these "reports" were denied but this is a good image of what is happening w/ Newcastle lately!

In this contest we are dealing w/ two teams that aren't scoring goals early on the season but they are creating chances! I have Newcastle ranked #5 in total shots w/ 15.0 per game & Stoke City ranked #6 w/ 14.6 shots/game! Obviously, both teams haven’t been efficient but sooner or later the goals will appear. I have discussed this Stoke City a few times saying that they struggle against packed defenses because they lack the proper talent on the midfield to create solid build up chances. That’s why they have been poor at home (losses vs. Aston Villa & Leicester) – they have the urgency to attack but their opponents are happy in sitting down and make some counter attacks. Well, this is not the mantra of Newcastle for today… they will be looking to get a win and more importantly, their defensive organization is awful while Stoke City is a great defensive team – ranked #1 in the league in avoiding shots on target per game.

I think that we should be dealing w/ Stoke City -0.5 line @ +100 / 2.00 odds while my handicapped totals line = 2.5 goals!

Soccer Premium Card 09/27

Soccer Pick #1: Hull City vs. Manchester City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Manchester City (-0.75) @ -133 / 1.75 on SBOBet (OR -140 / 1.71 on Pinnacle Sports)

Detailed Write Up:

I’ve decided to release this play early as Man City will be one of the “public plays” of the round and right now, we can get this AH -0.75 @ decent prices of -130’s / 1.70’s.

Man City “needs” this contest. They are coming from 4 consecutive games in which they failed to win: 0-1 home loss vs. Stoke City, 2-2 draw @Arsenal, 0-1 loss @Bayern Munchen for the Champions League and 1-1 draw vs. Chelsea in this weekend, curiously we had plays in all those games without losing any of them (Stoke+2, Man City PK @Arsenal, Man City +1 @Bayern & Under 2.75 Goals vs. Chelsea)

While they “dominated” the game vs. Chelsea in this past round, it was a tough spot for them w/ 3 huge games in the span of just a week (Arsenal, Bayern & Chelsea). To make matters worse, they played w/ 10 men since the 66th minute w/ Zabaleta being sent off. It was indeed a busy week for them! For this round, I expect Pellegrini to rotate his squad against Sheffield Wednesday  in tomorrow's Capital One Cup fixture and therefore, we should be dealing w/ a pure week of preparation going forward for this contest. W/ Man City 100% focused, I don’t think that Hull City will be able to hang around w/ them!

Last season, Hull City had a decent defensive organization but they are really struggling in this area early on the season: they have allowed 2 goals/game in L3 contests and teams are averaging 18.2 shots/game against them - #2 worst mark in the league! This is a bad sign because they have faced so far QPR, Stoke City, Aston Villa, West Ham & Newcastle and none of these teams are powerhouse teams!

I had a play w/ them in the previous round that we cashed partially (+0.25 @ Hull City) as I expect them to take advantage of Newcastle’s shaky condition. While they got one point, they were outplayed by Newcastle who had 63% ball possession, attempted 25 total shots with 19 of them via build up plays! Who can’t allow so many chances to the opponents! It worked against Newcastle but Man City is a completely different “beast”!

Offensively, Hull City is a fragile team… all my rankings have them outside of the top13 and I expect Man City’s defense to handle them quite easily.

I expect Man City to win this contest and therefore, I’m taking them -0.75 AH in here!

Soccer Pick #2: Chelsea vs. Aston Villa

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 3 Goals @ -116 / 1.86 on SBOBet (OR -118 / 1.85 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up: 

I expect this contest to be a tight tactical battle due Villa’s good defensive organization. We cashed w/ Arsenal last week against them but truth be told, several Villa’s players were hit by a virus prior to the game and it looked clearly that they lacked their usual defensive aggressive pressure:

"Ashley Westwood was sick in the warm-up, Nathan Baker, Darren Bent and Andi Weimann were at half-time. We were really struggling. It's not an excuse but it's a fact. We could have been better defensively but we weren't at 100 per cent."

Arsenal didn’t have any pity and scored three quick goals in the first half to seal the deal. For today, I expect Villa’s to be more in-form physically and be a tough matchup for Chelsea. Villa’s has been a great defensive team closing the center of the field and this bodes well for them b/c Chelsea is the #1 team in the EPL attacking through the middle!

On the other end, Villa is the worst team in the league in total shots & shots on target per game… they will be once again without a pure striker on the front and therefore, this is a perfect scenario for a clean sheet performance from Chelsea.

Soccer Pick #3: Crystal Palace - Leicester

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ -108 / 1.92 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -109 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer Pick #4: Southampton - QPR

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: QPR (+1.25) @ -132 / 1.76 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -133 / 1.75 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer Pick #4: Arsenal vs. Tottenham

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Arsenal (-0.5) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes

Soccer Premier League Free Premium Card 09/21

Soccer Pick #1: Leicester City vs. Manchester United

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 2.75 Goals @ -102 / 1.98 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -103 / 1.97 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

Ihad a small lean w/ Man Utd today but this -1 AH line seems just right and I’ve decided to make a play w/ OVER.

Man Utd is coming from their first win of the season against QPR in a game where they changed their formation for a more traditional 4-3-1-2 diamond formation and more importantly, they have added some new players: Rojo, Blind, Herrera returned after an injury and obviously Di Maria.

Their offensive flow was great and all players looked more comfortably on the field. It also helped the fact that Young, Fletcher and Valencia were all dropped off the team as I’m not a fan of those 3 players. Herrera is a key player for them because his build up action through the middle is unique for the team (Cleverly and Fletcher aren’t capable of doing that build up stuff).

 However, it helped the fact that they were playing against QPR who looked terrible (once again)! Leicester City is way a better team right now than QPR! They are well organized, they attack from the wings and they have a serviceable striker who is really making some damage in the Premier League. They already have faced 3 top teams this season (Everton, Arsenal & Chelsea) and in all those 3 games, they had a positive mindset trying to score goals. They managed to score vs. Everton & Chelsea at home and they had a HUGE chance to score vs. Chelsea in the first half. I expect them to keep having this mindset today vs. Man Utd, so this contest will be fun to watch.

I’m not sold in Man Utd’s defensive consistency… QPR had some good chances last week against them but missed it all. Man Utd could win today, but I think that Leicester City will give a great fight w/ both teams scoring goals. Therefore, I’m taking the OVER in here.

Soccer Pick #2: Tottenham vs. W.B.A

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Tottenham (-1) @ -113 / 1.88 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

I expect Tottenham to easily dismantle WBA today…

After being humiliated by Liverpool at home, the Spurs went to Sunderland and got one point after drawing 2-2. They deserved to win that game as they created several chances to score and outplayed Sunderland for the majority of the time. They played midweek one Europa League game but Mauricio Pochettino rested some key players in that game, so the Spurs will be “fresh” for today’s game.

I’ve faded WBA in the last 2 rounds against Everton and Swansea City with nice success and I see no reason to stop fading them against teams w/ good firepower on the front.

Soccer Pick #3: Everton vs. Crystal Palace

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Crystal Palace (+1.25) @ -121 / 1.82 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

Unlike Totenham for example, Everton’s boss Roberto Martinez decided to field their best possible lineup in Europa’s League match against Wolfsburg this past Thursday, and I think that this might turn against him today vs. Crystal Palace. Everton has several players injured and therefore, it’s hard for him to rotate his players but I suspect of Everton’s energy level for today (Seamus Coleman and Leighton Baines picked up some minor injuries vs. Wolfsburg).

Everton’s defensive problems have been well noticed early on the season:  teams are averaging 12.3 total shots per game & 4.3 shots on target/game against them!

After losing the first 2 games of the season, Palace got 2 draws in L2 rounds vs. Newcastle & Burnley while Head Coach Neil Warnock is developing his team. They have some great pace on the front w/ Campbell, Gayle and/or Zaha and I think that they take advantage of the Everton’s poor defensive display so far in the season.

I think that we should be dealing w/ a pure -1 goals line, so I’m taking this +1.25 goals line for Crystal Palace.

Soccer Pick #3: Manchester City vs. Chelsea

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 2.75 Goals @ -116 / 1.86 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

Tactical battle in here! Both teams played midweek in the Champions League – few time to recover fitness levels @100%! With Chelsea having a nice 5-pts advantage in the standings over Man City, I expect them to be patient in this contest like they had last season – that’s why they were the only team to win @Man City ground in the last season! We should be dealing w/ a classic 2.5 goals line!

Soccer Premier League Free Premium Card 09/20

Soccer Pick #1: Aston Villa vs. Arsenal

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Arsenal (-0.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

Aston Villa has been one of the biggest surprises of the league so far, but I feel that Arsenal’s is a bad matchup for them, especially by playing at home where they are “obliged” to take a more pro-active mindset instead of laying back for the 90 minutes.

Villa has been playing without a pure striker on the front and using the wings as their primary source of offense. In the last week against Liverpool:

Attacking from the left side: 40%
Attacking from the middle: 17%
Attacking from the right side: 43%

Arsenal is a bit vulnerable from the wings as their full-backs are extremely offensive minded. Mathieu Debuchy is OUT for today and most likely Calum Chambers will start on his place. This is good news for Arsenal b/c Chambers is more committed to defense and so, the Gunners won’t be such exposed on the right-back.

Villa’s defensive organization is great and they held Liverpool scoreless at home – a great accomplishment! However, Liverpool’s attack was way “too static” with little to no movement until Sterling entered in the field. Balotelli definitely isn’t Suarez and his off-movement stuff is limited, Markovic is still learning and adjusting to the Premier League and the Reds struggled to generate movement on the front. This won’t happen today w/ Arsenal!

Soccer Pick #2: Burnley vs. Sunderland

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Sunderland (+0.25) @ -120 / 1.83 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

I expect this contest to be a tight battle w/ the Draw being a likely scenario and therefore, we are getting some value at this +0.25 line as long we can find @ -125 / 1.80 odds.

Burnley is a well organized team that is solid defensively. However, they don’t have much firepower on the front quality and depth-wise. This is maximized when their two best forwards Sam Vokes & Danny Ings are both OUT for today. Remember that these two players combined to score 47 goals in the last season for them in the Championship. I think that the offensive struggles will remain in display today…

Sunderland has 3 points in the table – all draws, and they are coming from a draw vs. Tottenham, although they were clearly outplayed in that game and got some lucky. Their fighting spirit has been terrific as they were trailing in all those 3 draws just to tie the game. Unlike Burnley, they are “healthy” and this could make the difference in this contest…

Soccer Pick #3: Newcastle United vs. Hull City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Hull City (+0.25) @ +110 / 2.10 on Pinnacle Sports (OR +105 / 2.02 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

This is a pivotal game for the future of Newcastle’s head coach Alan Pardew and I doubt that Newcastle will perform at their best today with such heavy pressure “under their skins”.  Newcastle defensive line has been atrocious to say the least, just go back and watch Southampton’s goals against them to understand my statement. Offensively, they lack the proper creativity given by Siem de Jong who is injured and Papiss Demba Cissé would help them on the front w/ his speed but he is also injured and out for this contest.

Hull City will be a tough matchup for them as they are well organized defensively and don’t allow much space on the back. Their problem was on the front as they lacked some pace and “killing instinct”. The good news was that Abel Hernandez and Mohamed Diamé made their first game for them in the last round and “coincidentally”, both scored one goal in the 2-2 draw against West Ham United. With Hernandéz on the front, I think that Hull City will take advantage of the fragile mindset of Newcastle players and therefore, they don’t deserve to be such underdogs in this contest.  

Soccer Pick #4: Swansea City vs. Southampton

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Both Teams to Score @ -123 / 1.81 on Pinnacle Sports 

Detailed Write Up:

Both teams are confident and playing an exciting attacking football, I have strong lean w/ OVER 2.5 Goals but I rather prefer playing both teams to score as both teams are creating several chances to score while defensively, they are prone to commit individual errors.  

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Maribor vs. Sporting Lisbon

Soccer Pick #6: Maribor vs. Sporting Lisbon
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Sporting Lisbon (-0.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write Up:

I rate the Portuguese team being better than Maribor, especially with their star defensive player Suler being OUT of this contest. Maribor will have some problems through the center of their defense because Sporting has a capable striker to cause some damage in Islam Slimani. Sporting is having some problems in their domestic league against inferior level opponents that are focused almost exclusively in defending and get a point from them. With some space to operate they are more dangerous and I expect Maribor to give some space by playing at home.

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Athletic Bilbao vs. Shakhtar Donetsk

Soccer Pick #5: Athletic Bilbao vs. Shakhtar Donetsk
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 2.25 Goals @ -125 / 1.80 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -127 / 1.78 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

Like Benfica vs. Zenit from yesterday, I expect this contest to be wide open with both teams bringing a pro-active mindset to the field. The problem yesterday was that Benfica’s GK was sent off early on the game and this fact alone changed completely the dynamic of the game.

The Spanish team at home is a tough team to beat while their fanatic fans are a factor to intimidate the opposing teams. Bilbao plays an aggressive fast forward style of football so this contest will be fun to watch. I think that they are capable to score at least one goal in here. However, I also expect Shakhtar Donetsk to create some damage on the offensive end. The turmoil in Ukraine is indeed a factor, but note that the majority of the players of this team are Brazilians eager to shine in the Champions League… They want to departure from Ukraine and the Champions League is a great spot for them to “show” their skills…fortunately, they are all great technician players (Luiz Adriano, Taison, Alex Teixeira and Douglas Costa)!

Both teams will play w/ offensive mindset, both have quality on the front and therefore, I’m taking the OVER in here.

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Porto vs. BATE Borisov

Soccer Pick #4: Porto vs. BATE Borisov
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Porto (-1.5) @  +101 / 2.01 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -101 / 1.99 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

After a terrible season, FC Porto is primed to make a strong bounce back in this new season as they made several good acquisitions. With a new head coach, their defense has been pretty solid to start the season while they had some problems to create chances to score especially when they field 3 central midfielders that don’t have proper creativity to create danger from the center of the midfield – I’m talking about youngster Ruben Neves, Casemiro and Herrera. However, I’ve just checked their starting XI for today and Porto will use only 2 of those players while inserting Brahimi on the center w/ Quaresma and Adrián on the wings. This is a potent offensive lineup and I really expect them to dominate BATE Borisov.  BATE isn’t as strong as the last years versions and they failed to win on the road in the qualifying rounds against inferior class opponents. Playing at home is a completely scenario for them (they look much stronger) but this isn’t the case in here and therefore, I’m taking the hosts in this contest.

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Ajax vs. PSG

Soccer Pick #3: Ajax vs. PSG
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: PSG (-0.75) @ -117 / 1.85 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -117 / 1.85 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

PSG is struggling to win games on their domestic league but Ajax is a great matchup for their style of football. Unlike the majority of the French teams, this Ajax team won’t play w/ a conservative mindset trying to secure 0-0 draw… no! They will try to impose their game, control the ball possession and assuming some offensive risks… the problem is that they will be vulnerable on the back and PSG’s forwards given some space… they are deadly!

Ajax lost probably their two best players at the end of the trade deadline as Blind went to Man Utd and Siem de Jong went to Newcastle United, so this is a limited squad on the midfield right now and PSG has too many talent on the front that in a wide open game will make the difference.

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Bayern Munchen vs. Manchester City

Soccer Pick #2: Bayern Munchen vs. Manchester City
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Manchester City (+1) @ -125 / 1.80 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -126 / 1.79 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

I feel that Manchester City is vastly underpriced for this contest. We are now dealing with an experienced team in UEFA’s competitions (something that they lacked some couple of years ago) and they certainly know how to play against this “tiki taka” style of football imposed by Guardiola, as they faced this Bayern team last season ,and then Barcelona in the knockout stage.

City’s head coach Manuel Pellegrini rested some players in the last weekend clash against Arsenal just to be ready for this contest. Yaya Touré was one of those players and I think that he will be a key factor for tonight’s game, because Bayern has several injured players in the midfield (Bastian Schweinsteiger, Thiago Alcantara, Javi Martinez and also Ribery is OUT as well).  With Man City having good chances to at least give some fight in the midfield battle, I expect them to be a tough matchup and therefore, this +1 line is valuable in my opinion.

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Chelsea vs. Schalke 04

Soccer Pick #1: Chelsea vs. Schalke 04
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Chelsea (-1.5) @ -111 / 1.90 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -112 / 1.89 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

We can say that this is the “public play” of the day but it’s hard to go against Chelsea right now. They are playing an exciting style of football w/ Fabregas being the playmaker, while Diego Costa is indeed making a strong impression on the front. I expect Mourinho to make some changes and rotate his players. However their depth is tremendous and players like Cech, Felipe Luiz, Ramires, Willian and/or Remy are capable players.

On the other end, Schalke 04 is heavily struggling right now. Their domestic league performance is subpar w/ one draw & 2 losses in three games. Several first team players such as Farfan, Felipe Santana, Kolasinac are injured and out for today, and more recently, their captain and leader of the defensive line Howedes is OUT as well, so I don’t think that Schalke is going to offer much resistance to the Blues.

Soccer Premium Card 09/16

Soccer Pick #1: Real Madrid vs. Basel
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Real Madrid (-2.25) @ -124 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes

Soccer Premium Card 09/13

Soccer Pick #2: Everton @ W.B.A

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Everton (-0.25) @ -106 / 1.94 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -112 / 1.89 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

I had a play w/ Chelsea against this Everton team and even though Everton was embarrassed at home, I didn’t think that they deserved being punished by allowing 6 goals. Their defensive lapses have been costly this season w/ late draws against Leicester City and Arsenal, but the quality is still there.  I expect them to win this contest as they face W.B.A – one of the worst teams in the league according to my rankings. I’ve faded WBA in their last game @Swansea and they got crushed by the Welsh side and today against a focused superior opponent, I don’t think that the final outcome will be different.

Soccer Premier League Free Play 09/13: Manchester City @ Arsenal

Soccer Pick #1: Manchester City @ Arsenal

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Manchester City (PK) @ -131 / 1.76 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -135 / 1.74 on Bookmaker)

Detailed Write Up:

This is the earliest game of the day! We are eating some high juice in here, but I really didn’t want to take a bite on Man City (-0.25) as if the contest is tied +70min, both teams would be “happy” to get a point and therefore, this (PK) line is perfect for us in this scenario (it would be pushed).

Man City is coming from a shocking loss at home vs. Stoke City, but for us it wasn’t a complete surprise, as we faded them in that contest by taking Stoke+2. In this matchup, there are 3 key factors that will work favorably for City today:

1)      They have a more cohesive defensive line in my opinion, especially with their defensive midfield covering some ground on the wings when their wing-backs go forward. I believe that this is Arsenal’s major weakness in their roster alongside w/ striker position;

2)      Arsenal’s passing game is yet to "click" in this season… in the first 3 games they didn’t impress me at all w/ their build up game. Usually they are sharp with passes going forward but we are yet to see a solid performance from them. It looks like Aaron Ramsey is questionable/doubtful for this contest and this is a major blow for them;

3)      Most likely, Danny Welbeck will start for Arsenal, and even though he is confident right now after scoring twice for England this past week, I don’t think that he had the proper time to develop the proper chemistry w/ his teammates.

Arsenal crushed Man City in the Charity Shield 3-0, but this contest simply couldn’t be comparable to that game as Man City looked like they were still in vacations, while Arsenal was hungry to collect one more title. I think that City is the better team right now and I’m taking my chances w/ them in here.

Soccer Premium Card 08/30

Soccer Pick #1: Manchester City vs. Stoke City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Stoke City (+2) @ -122 / 1.82 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -124 / 1.81 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

I understand that Man City is almost unbeatable at home and they are coming from a great cynical display against Liverpool this past Monday. However I feel that this is a letdown spot for them after their tremendous effort in that game and more importantly, I expect Stoke City to be a tough tactical matchup for them.

Stoke City has a “poor” start of the season w/ one home loss vs. A. Villa and a late draw @Hull City in the last week. In both games, Stoke City faced two teams w/ conservative mindsets. Aston Villa was looking to get a 0-0 draw and after they scored their goal, they closed their defensive line. While last week, Hull City played w/ 10 men early on, scored one goal late in the first half and obviously, they wanted to hold the lead. As improved as Stoke City looks on the paper, they don’t have the proper talent on the front to dismantle packed defensive lines.

This won’t happen today vs. Man City as City will charge on the front since the start. Stoke City’s good tactical organization will make City work hard in here. In the last season, Stoke lost only 0-1 @Man City, so I expect a narrow win from City today.

Soccer Free Premium Play: 08/30

Soccer Pick: Swansea City vs. W.B.A.

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Swansea City (-0.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -116 / 1.86 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

I expect W.B.A. to have a similar approach as of the last week’s game @Southampton: conservative mindset, gave the ball possession to the opponent (Saints had 58% ball poss. in that game) and try to make danger w/ quick counter attacks using the speed of Ideye on the front.

That plan “worked” as W.B.A. got a point so I would be surprised if suddenly they bring a pro-active game plan for this contest.

Swansea City has been a nice surprise in this season w/ 2 wins in the first 2 games. Note that I was not impressed w/ their second half performance against Burnley in the last week as Burnley could easily tied the game w/ better finishing on the front. The difference between Swansea and Southampton is that the Welsh side has a better offensive flow right now. They attack from both wings, they have a pure striker on the front in Bony and Sigurdsson is looking great playing behind him. While Southampton struggled to create build ups plays vs. packed W.B.A. defensive line, I think that Swansea’s well oiled offensive machine won’t have such problems and will win this contest.

Soccer Premium Card 08/26

Soccer Pick #1: Champions League - Porto vs. Lille

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Porto (-0.5) @ -114 / 1.87 on Betonline

Soccer Pick #2: Champions League - Celtic vs. Maribor

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Celtic (-1) @ +108 / 2.08 on Pinnacle Sports (OR +105 / 2.05 on Betonline)

Soccer English Premier League Premium Card 08/24

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Hull City vs. Stoke City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Stoke City (+0.25) @ -113 / 1.88 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

It looks like we have to start once again from behind in a new sports season… It happened w/ the NBA, NFL and more recently w/ the MLB, and we were able to grind back pretty strong and finish the season way ahead. Hopefully it will happen w/ this Soccer season as well!

For this contest, I’m riding once again Stoke City as long this +0.25 is available @ decent price.

I’ve made some notes about Stoke City in their inaugural game vs. Aston Villa:

“We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.”

I think that they will be pretty comfortable playing on the road this season as their possession oriented style suits them well in controlling the flow of the game – they were an underrated good road team last season having lost only two games since February and those were at Manchester City and Chelsea.

Hull City was able to defeat QPR in the first game in a game that they were a bit lucky as QPR missed several good chances including a penalty kick. Both teams used a similar 3-5-2 formation and the superior “experience” of Hull City prevailed in the game. However, even though they were playing w/ a conservative mindset after grabbing the lead, Hull City still conceded plenty of chances to QPR.

This contest will be a fairly contested affair w/ both teams having a pro-active approach and in my opinion, both teams have the same chances of winning the game.

English Premier League Premium Card Round 2 08/23

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Newcastle (+0.25) @ -128 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

(Note that this contest is going to be played @7:45 AM EST / 1:45PM CET!)

We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.

The problem is that by playing at home, Villa are “pressured” to use a more offensive style – something that they tend to struggle especially without their two top forwards in Benteke and Libor Kozák.

Newcastle United was a nice surprise against the champions Man City. They lost 0-2 but they were not that far from squeezing a draw in that game. Their new signings (especially Cabella and Riviere) were dynamic and Newcastle showed some great speed on the front w/ their mobile forwards. Like Villa did in Round 1 against Stoke City, Newcastle can be pretty dangerous on the counter. Villa didn’t concede much space on the back vs. Stoke City, but by playing at home in front of their fans, they will use a more offensive style and therefore, Newcastle will enjoy some space after recovering the ball.

Aston Villa struggled badly at home in the last season and by using the same exact style of play, I wouldn’t be surprised if those home struggles carry on for this new season.

Newcastle (PK) has some value but I like more the +0.25 AH line as long as the line is “better”  than -135 / 1.71, so I’m taking the visitors in this contest.

Soccer Pick #2: Premier League - Leicester City @ Chelsea

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Chelsea (-1.75) @ -121 / 1.83 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -123 / 1.81 on Betonline)

Detailed write up:

Chelsea looked completely dominant in the first half against Burnley, even though they suffered an early goal. As usual, they pressured high on the pitch but this time around, they had the proper offensive flair that was lacking in the last season via the “Fabregas” factor.

Fabregas’ skilled passes made the ultimate difference in that game! Chelsea struggled last season against the lower level competition because they lacked the proper creativity to open up games vs. packed defenses. Oscar was a factor early on the season but he completely disappeared on the second half of season.

In a typical Jose Mourinho style, once Chelsea scored their third goal, they were focused in controlling the game without spending much energy, so the rest of the match was “boring” to say the least.

In this first home match of the season, I think that Mourinho wants to put a show in front of his fans. I just can’t see Chelsea’s being happy to hold a one-goal lead through the entire second half!

We cashed w/ Leicester City in their first game vs. Everton as they scored a late goal to tie the game 2-2. Their coach made some nice tactical adjustments in the second half after being completely outplayed in the first half. Nevertheless, Everton was the better team in that game as Leicester is still adjusting to the Premier League.

Soccer Pick #3: Premier League - W.B.A @ Southampton

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Southampton (-0.5) @ -116 / 1.86 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -115 / 1.87 on Betonline)

Detailed write up:

I’m fading once again West Brom in this round after going against them in their first game vs. Sunderland.

They draw 2-2 in that game and I must say that I wasn’t impressed w/ their performance. Actually, they scored the first goal via a non-existent penalty kick and globally, they looked to me a prime candidate to be relegated in this season.

I can’t say the same about Southampton as they looked pretty good against Liverpool. With innumerous departures and some others signings, I thought that they would need some time to find a proper chemistry between them but I wrong as they looked sharp in some moments of the game. Actually, they could have easily grabbed one point from Anfield.

With such advanced team chemistry displayed in their first official game of the season, I expect them to cruise past W.B.A. today.

Soccer Pick #4: Premier League - Burnley @ Swansea City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Both Teams To Score @ -119 / 1.84 on Pinnacle Sports 

Detailed write up:

Swansea City was the major highlight of the first round by knocking down Man Utd on the road. It wasn’t a complete surprise for me because I expected them to do some damage offensively as they really have some nice talent on the front!

They held Man Utd to just one goal but I think that it was more about United’s lack of offensive flow especially from the wings than exactly Swansea being a top defensive team.

My notes about them in that game didn’t change for this contest:

“The Welsh side made a decent pre-season and they look more dangerous on the front than exactly having a stronger defense. I expect them to struggle defensively early on the season as they lost some key defensive players in this offseason like Vorm, Ben Davis and more recently Chico Flores.”

One thing I liked about Burnley in their game vs. Chelsea was that they have some courage. They didn’t “park the bus” against one of the best EPL teams, they wanted to play a fair game and obviously, I expect them to have the same approach against this inferior class opponent.

This will be a fun game to watch, a open game and therefore, I expect both teams to score at least one goal.

Soccer Pick #5: Premier League - Arsenal @ Everton

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ -102 / 1.98 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

Arsenal's starting lineup won't feature a traditional striker as both Sonogo & Giroud were relegated to the bench. Wenger will try to control the game in the midfield and this is not a good start for a potential high scoring game. Arsenal plays a pivotal game vs. Besiktas in this midweek and so, I expect them to control the game by playing in a possession slow-tempo oriented football.