MLB Premium Card 08/25

MLB Pick #1: 953 St. Louis Cardinals @ 954 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs. F. Liriano)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 954 Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ -138 / 1.72 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

We’ve lost one play backing up Francisco Liriano on his last start in which he was completely pounded by the Braves at home by allowing 7 ER’s in just 4 innings of work. However, we have to take in account that ATL is a pretty good offense vs. LHP (ranked #4 in the league) and they really put huge pressure on Liriano. I think that this awful start was an isolated case because Liriano was super sharp for quite some time. STL’s offense isn’t that dangerous vs. ATL so, I expect him to bounce back.

On the other end, STL’s SP John Lackey is struggle a bit lately w/ 4.57 FIP + 4.08 xFIP in this second half of season. I have to give some props to him because he was decent on his last start by allowing 2 ER’s in 6 IP’s while having a nice 7/1 K/BB ratio to show. However, I just can’t ignore that he faced the Reds in that start – the worst offensive team in the league lately, so he enjoyed a nice favorable matchup. This won’t happen today against the #3 ranked offense in the league vs. RHP’s and therefore, I expect some regression from him tonight.

MLB Pick #2: 955 Milwaukee Brewers @ 956 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs. E. Stults)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 956 San Diego Padres ML @ +122 / 2.22 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The Padres have been probably the most underrated team in this second half of season. We’ve won our play yesterday @ARI, and I’m going to play them today as well.

They will send LHP Eric Stults to the mound and Stults (like their offense) has been terrific lately! His 3.30 FIP & 3.94 xFIP numbers during this month (4 starts) are decent and please note that 3 of thos starts were against decent offensive team batting vs. LHP’s: ATL ranked #4, STL #10 & LAD #15, still he was decent in every game!

On the other end, MIL’s SP Kyle Lohse returns to action after dealing w/ a bad ankle. He is clearly struggling lately w/ 5.07 FIP & 5.07 xFIP in this second half and this Padres’ offense aren’t anymore a dreadful unit – I have them being ranked #4 in this second half of season! Having the chance to get SD @ plus money at home is a valuable proposition for me!

MLB Pick #2: 965 New York Yankees @ 966 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: M. Pineda vs. J. Shields)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 965 New York Yankees ML @ +126 / 2.26 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

I think that we are getting some nice value w/ the Yankees at this current price @ +120’s / 2.20’s.

I understand that the Royals have been red hot in this second half of season but the Yankees are coming for this contest w/ a nice streak of 4 consecutive wins, so they have some momentum with them as well.

NYY’s SP Michael Pineda has made 2 starts since coming off the DL and he was sharp in both of them vs. BAL & HOU. His pitch count was fairly decent and KC’s bats don’t have much knowledge about him, they have only 36 collective AB’s against him for .194 BA & .590 OPS! Pineda has the “surprise factor” working for him in this particular matchup! KC’s SP James Shields has been also pretty good lately, but I don’t think that he has “that much” edge over Pineda in this matchup and therefore, I’m taking the Underdogs in here.