MLB Premium Play 04/22: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

MLB - 955 Chicago Cubs @ 956 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: T. Wood vs M. Leake)

Travis Wood is currently with a 1.83 ERA, but he is being super overrated for tonight's game. He has allowed at least two walks in each outing and with him being a flyball pitcher with a FB% rate of +42% in every season of his career so far, it's weird that he is yet to allow a single homerun this season. He will have a massive test tonight on a hitters park like Cincinnati's and against the team whose offense is #1 in the league against LH pitchers with an impressive .901 OPS! Besides that, Cincinnati's batters are hitting .302 BA and .938 OPS against Wood!

On the other side, I also expect the Cubs's offense to have a good matchup against Mike Leake, as the Cubs's current roster is batting .327 BA and .839 OPS against Leake! Therefore, I see this game being a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955/956 Over 8,5 (w/ T. Wood & M. Leake) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 04/22: Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox

Cleveland  at Chicago White Sox

MLB - 969 Cleveland Indians @ 970 Chicago White Sox (Starting Pitchers: J. Masterson vs D. Axelrod) This is a favorable matchup for Cleveland's offense, who has scored a total of 24 runs on their last two games, while having a +1.000 OPS! Daryl Axelrod has been struggling on this early season due to his lack strikeout stuff, with an unimpressive 9/7 K/BB ratio. This will be a tough outing for him, as he struggles against LH hitters with a career 5.32 FIP and 4.98 xFIP against LH batters! This is a problem for him tonight, as Cleveland is full of LH batters on their lineup as usual: 1. Michael Brantley (L) LF 2. Jason Kipnis (L) 2B 3. Asdrubal Cabrera (S) SS 4. Nick Swisher (S) RF 5. Jason Giambi (L) DH 6. Carlos Santana (S) C 7. Mark Reynolds (R) 1B 8. Lonnie Chisenhall (L) 3B 9. Drew Stubbs (R) CF On the other hand, Justin Masterson has been one of the best SP's in the league on this early season, with impeccable command and this will be a problem for the impatient White Sox's offense. Masterson is a GB pitcher and this is also a matchup for the White Sox, who rely on the long bombs on their offense. This is a overall great matchup for the Indians tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ J. Masterson) @ -117 / 1.85 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 04/21: Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

NBA - 713 Milwaukee Bucks @ 714 Miami Heat

Projected Line: Miami by 17 points

Nobody expects the Bucks to beat the Heat on this series, except Brandon Jennings, who publicly mentioned that Milwaukee would beat Miami in six games, something that will only cause Miami to come fired up today to destroy the Bucks. During the regular season, we saw Miami would using their extra gear when they really needed. For several times, we saw the Heat hanging around against inferior teams, just to insert an extra gear down the stretch and win their games. Today, I expect the Heat to use their "extra gear" for a longer period of time.

Any team will have a very tough task against Miami on the playoffs, but things will be even tougher for the Bucks on this series. Milwaukee's most used lineup features a 3-guard combo with Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis and J.J. Redick and even though these three layers are capable of doing some damage on offense, their defensive level is disastrous, as they are all undersized and so, they will get pounded today by Dwyane Wade and Lebron James. Milwaukee's coach will be forced to use Marquis Daniels and Luc Mbah a Moute for defensive proposes thanks to that, but that will only destroy their offensive chemistry, without boosting their defense that much. Larry Sanders's back problems are still an issue and he isn't at 100% right now. Chris Bosh will also be a tough matchup for him, as he plays away from the basket most of the time, so Sanders will have to leave the rim on defense, the area where he dominates with his shot-blocking abilities. 

These two teams faced each other already in April, with the Heat comfortably winning the game, even though they played without Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Lebron James simply dominated the game in every single way. The Heat won the contest by "just" 11 points because they struggled to hit treys with 8-35 3pts, despite having almost every time a clean look. Lebron had 11-16 FG, 28 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists in 30 minutes, with the Heat outscoring the Bucks by 21 points during the time Lebron was on court. Miami's dynamic offense won't have any problem in scoring against Milwaukee today. I expect the Heat's defense to be aggressive and they are an elite team on pressuring the opposing ball handler, closing lanes and the Bucks are turnover prone. They committed 20 turnovers on their last game against Heat and with so many turnovers, Miami's excellent transition game will have lots of chances today to score a high number of fast break points. This should all result on a blowout win for Miami and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 714 Miami Heat (-13) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/21: Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 711 Los Angeles Lakers @ 712 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: 194 points | San Antonio by 12 points

So, suddenly the Lakers will dominate the Spurs and perhaps even make a deep run in the Playoffs, even though they struggled during the whole season and they are now without their best player Kobe Bryant. I see a lot of "specialists" picking the Spurs in 7 games and even the almighty Skip Bayless picked the Lakers to advance in 6 games! It looks like it is out of question for the Spurs to comfortably beat the Lakers on this series according to them, but not so fast my friend!

There are several factors that benefit the Spurs on this series. They have a much better coach, a better defensive scheme, a better overall offense, more depth on the bench, etc. But the key factor in here will be the matchup between the Spurs's guards and the Lakers's guards. If Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are at a "decent" level, then the Spurs will crush the Lakers because this has been what teams with good backcourts have been doing to the Lakers all season long. 

The last game between these two teams was played very recently, with the Lakers defeated the Spurs last Sunday at home by 91-86. San Antonio played without Manu Ginobili, while Tony Parker had his worst performance of the season with 1-10 FG and 4 turnovers on a physical struggling night for him. Then, San Antonio ended the regular season with a home game against Minnesota, where coach Popovich didn't seem interested to show how the Spurs will be looking for the playoffs. However, San Antonio used a lineup to close the first half that is worth mentioning. With 6:13 left in the second quarter, down 38-42, Popovich subbed in MGinobili, Bonner and Duncan to join Parker and Leonard on the floor. This group played the remainder of the period. The last time Parker, Duncan, Ginobili and Leonard had taken the floor together was 11 games ago, in a win against the Nuggets. In those six minutes, the Spurs outscored the Wolves by 23-14. While San Antonio scored 37 points in the second quarter, it doesn't give justice to how this lineup player on the last six minutes of the quarter, as they were on pace to score 46 points in that quarter alone! 

This is obviously a very good sign for San Antonio. After watching the Spurs against the Wolves, I also watched the game between the Lakers and the Rockets and there are no words to describe how bad the Lakers's guards are without Kobe Bryant and a healthy Steve Nash. Mike D'Antoni was forced to close the first quarter with Darius Morris and Andrew Goudelock! How did the Lakers play during those last three minutes of the first quarter? Well, they went scoreless! It seems that Steve Nash will play today, but I doubt that he will be physically at 100%, so this should be an easy matchup for Tony Parker. Obviously that Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard will be key factors for the Lakers on this series, but since Gregg Popovich put Tiago Splitter and Tim Duncan together on the frontcourt, the Spurs become an elite interior defensive team: top 3 on the league on both rim defense and defensive rebounding!

I expect the Spurs to have a nice offensive game in here, while pushing up the pace to catch the slow footed Lakers off guard, while the Lakers's frontcourt also having an acceptable performance in here, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here. I also believe San Antonio will surprise the "specialists" today and get a statement win on the Game 1 of this series. Therefore, I'll be taking the Spurs in here as well. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 San Antonio Spurs (-8,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

MLB Premium Card 04/21

MLB - 915 New York Yankees @ 916 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: I. Nova vs J. Johnson)
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 916 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ J. Johnson) @ -140 / 1.71 on Betonline

MLB - 909 San Diego Padres @ 910 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: E. Stults vs B. Zito)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 909 San Diego Padres ML (w/ E. Stults) @ +124 / 2.24 on Bovada

MLB - 911 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 912 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: B. McCarthy vs J. Nicasio)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 911 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ B. McCarthy) @ +120 / 2.20 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 04/21: Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Houston  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 715 Houston Rockets @ 716 Oklahoma City Thunder Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 7 points I believe Houston will surprise a lot on the first game of this series. Oklahoma City has the tendency of relaxing a bit on their first game of the playoffs and that has happened over the past two seasons against Denver and Dallas. The Thunder have a very stubborn coach, who doesn't adjust to anything and keeps using the same rotations. On this case, Houston's small ball will have a good edge over Oklahoma City's big lineup with Kendrick Perkins being lost on court. The Thunder's starting center should barely play on this series, but with Scott Brooks, we know that Oklahoma City will use their traditional system, lineup and rotations, especially on the first game of a playoff series. A lot of discipline is needed to defend the spread offensive game of the Rockets. However, I expect Oklahoma City to see Russell Westbrook being wild once again on this contest by gambling too much on defense, while forcing jumpers on offense. Therefore, Houston will have a mindset edge on the first game of this series. During the regular season, the Thunder won two of the three games they played against Houston, however those two games were played on a back to back spot for the Rockets, something terrible for Houston, as they depend a lot from their starters, as they lack depth. This time, I expect the Rockets to surprise in here and turn this game into a ballgame. Therefore, I'll be taking Houston tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715 Houston Rockets (+11) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Playoff Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Lakers

vs 

This season has been a tremendous roller-coaster for San Antonio, who was the team to beat in the West for most of the season, but now there are a lot of doubts about their ability to beat the #7 seed on the first round of the playoffs. In fact, there's a lot of people calling this series a potential 7-games series, with the Lakers having even a nice chance for the upset! Tony Parker got injured and when he returned, he was never the same. Manu Ginobili has been erratic all season with injuries and some bad play. Boris Diaw is injured, while Stephen Jackson was waived on the last week of the regular season. All of this isn't normal for a team like the Spurs, who is known for being the best organized franchise in the league. 

On the other end, if the Spurs had a roller-coaster season, what can we say about the Lakers's season? They got to the playoffs without Kobe Bryant. They made a late push and won their last two games against the Spurs and the Rockets, two playoff teams. This new look Lakers is more post-oriented naturally without Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. It will be interesting to check what kind of pace will the Lakers try to set on this series. Their last game of the regular season against the Rockets (#1 in pace factor) was a typical half court game, in which the Lakers didn't score a single fast break point. This should tell us something about how the Lakers will try to play on the postseason.

San Antonio's offense has declined since Tony Parker got injured by averaging an ugly 100.9 offensive rating over their last 10 games, below the league average! Both Parker and Ginobili will be the key on this series, as with them at 90%, the Lakers won't stand a chance, as we have seen all season long that the Lakers are too slow footed to battle against dynamic guards, especially on transitions. Dwight Howard is playing better and better as the season goes on with a bigger defensive range, while he won't have an easy matchup on offense against Tim Duncan. Foul trouble might be a problem for both teams. It will also be important to check Howard's FT% throughout the series, as he will certainly suffer a hack-a-Howard on this series.

With two good frontcourt units in action, it will be the guards play, who will decide the fate of this series and until facts prove me otherwise, I believe San Antonio has too much quality and depth for the Kobeless Lakers and this will be difference in here.

Prediction: San Antonio in 5/6 games