NBA Playoff Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Lakers

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This season has been a tremendous roller-coaster for San Antonio, who was the team to beat in the West for most of the season, but now there are a lot of doubts about their ability to beat the #7 seed on the first round of the playoffs. In fact, there's a lot of people calling this series a potential 7-games series, with the Lakers having even a nice chance for the upset! Tony Parker got injured and when he returned, he was never the same. Manu Ginobili has been erratic all season with injuries and some bad play. Boris Diaw is injured, while Stephen Jackson was waived on the last week of the regular season. All of this isn't normal for a team like the Spurs, who is known for being the best organized franchise in the league. 

On the other end, if the Spurs had a roller-coaster season, what can we say about the Lakers's season? They got to the playoffs without Kobe Bryant. They made a late push and won their last two games against the Spurs and the Rockets, two playoff teams. This new look Lakers is more post-oriented naturally without Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. It will be interesting to check what kind of pace will the Lakers try to set on this series. Their last game of the regular season against the Rockets (#1 in pace factor) was a typical half court game, in which the Lakers didn't score a single fast break point. This should tell us something about how the Lakers will try to play on the postseason.

San Antonio's offense has declined since Tony Parker got injured by averaging an ugly 100.9 offensive rating over their last 10 games, below the league average! Both Parker and Ginobili will be the key on this series, as with them at 90%, the Lakers won't stand a chance, as we have seen all season long that the Lakers are too slow footed to battle against dynamic guards, especially on transitions. Dwight Howard is playing better and better as the season goes on with a bigger defensive range, while he won't have an easy matchup on offense against Tim Duncan. Foul trouble might be a problem for both teams. It will also be important to check Howard's FT% throughout the series, as he will certainly suffer a hack-a-Howard on this series.

With two good frontcourt units in action, it will be the guards play, who will decide the fate of this series and until facts prove me otherwise, I believe San Antonio has too much quality and depth for the Kobeless Lakers and this will be difference in here.

Prediction: San Antonio in 5/6 games

NBA Playoff Preview: Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies

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You can forget UFC for the following week. The real fight will happen on this playoff series! Since the past season, these two teams have faced each other 14 times. So, we can definitely say that they know each other very well and there won't be a lot of secrets being explored on this series. The Clippers started the regular season at full speed, but they had some regression during the 2nd half of the season, mostly due to some defensive issues. They average a defensive rating of 103.7 during the 1st half of the season, but just 108.7 after the All Star break. I don't believe Eric Bledsoe's physical issues justify such regression on its own. In fact, during my scouting on the Clippers, I've noticed that they struggled in rotating properly to close out the shooters on the outside and their frontcourt players rarely make the smart decision between hedging out or trapping the opposing ball handler. So, it's no surprise for me that the LA team was just #26 in the league on 3pts defense with 37.3% allowed during the regular season. But are the Grizzlies ready to explore the biggest weakness of the Clippers's defense? Note that Memphis was the team that had the least amount of 3pts attempts during the regular season with just 13.5 attempted treys per game, while they were also just #24 in 3pts% with 34.5%!

On the other hand, everything will go through the hands of Chris Paul. He is the Clippers's floor general and the guy who will get the ball down the stretch for the LA team. Memphis's defense has been an elite unit all season long and they are averaging an incredible 101.6 defensive rating since the Gay/Prince trade. Mike Conley, Tony Allen and even Tayshaun Prince will get minutes defending Chris Paul during this season, in order to give him different looks. The Clippers's perimeter shooting has been streaky and just like it happens on the other end of the floor, the perimeter shooting will also be the key of the Clippers's offense on this series. If the LA team isn't able to be consistent on their 3pts shooting, then they become similar to the Grizzlies's offense.

The Clippers won the regular season series against the Grizzlies by 3-1 and note that the only win the Grizzlies had against the Clippers on the regular season was at LA. Memphis shot 7-14 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-12 3pts on their win, exposing how poor the Clippers's perimeter defense can be. This will be the key factor on this matchup, on a series that I predict to be similar to the one they had last season.

Prediction: Memphis in 6/7 games (if their perimeter shooting is effective) / LA Clippers in 6/7 games (if the Grizzlies struggle on their threes and the Clippers are consistent on their long-range shooting)

NBA Playoff Preview: New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics

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These two teams ended the regular season in completely different trends. The Celtics ended the season losing 11 of their last 16 games, while the Knicks won 14 of their last 16 games, many of them without Tyson Chandler. The Knicks averaged a 119.5 offensive rating in those 16 games, an amazing rating for a team who wants to play half court, with just 8.7 fast break points per game. They had a low number of turnovers with 11.6 per game and they shot really well from the perimeter with 206-508 (40.5%) 3pts. However, Pablo Priogini suffered an ankle injury on the last game of the regular season and he is doubtful for the Game 1 of this series, while Tyson Chandler may also be far from 100% physically due to a neck injury. 

On the other hand, the Celtics followed their usual path of not caring about the regular season and resting their key players instead as much as possible. Therefore, it's hard for the public to have a good read on the team. We have a dilemma in checking what's the best Boston's lineup for this series. Should they use Courtney Lee as their starting SG with Brandon Bass or Jeff Green at the PF position, or should they bench Lee and start both Bass and Green? The latter lineup was the one used in the final two games of the season where the Celtics have everybody available. Jeff Green is in my opinion the enigma of this series. After the All Star break, Green is averaging 49.3% FG, 43.9% 3pts and 17.3 ppg. His offensive improvement is very important for his team, especially if he keeps being very aggressive in attacking the rim, giving some diversity to a normally pure jump shooting team like the Celtics are. Boston is a team that doesn't try to grab offensive rebounds (#30 in the league with a 20.1% offensive rebound rate) and they don't attempt a lot of free throws neither (#22 in the league with 21.0 FTA/game). So, they need  good percentage shooting to be effective on offense. Defensively, the Celtics are a truly elite defensive team with Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Avery Bradley. In games where these three players were on the court, already with Rajon Rondo out, the Celtics averaged an incredible 101.1 defensive rating (#2 in the league)!

In terms of the matchup, this will be an interesting battle where the small ball with be used by both teams. On the last two games between these two teams during the regular season, the Knicks crushed the Celtics, while putting some bizarre lineups on the floor, with Carmelo Anthony playing some minutes for example at the Center position! However, it's important to note that the fact that Kevin Garnett didn't play none of these two games helped the Knicks. If a team wants to stop the Knicks's offense, they need to stop their perimeter shooting and Boston has been a top defensive team on this area, as they ended the season by being #4 in the league on 3pts defense with 34.2% allowed. However, the Knicks were the team that scored more treys against the Celtics in one game with 14-27 3pts on the last game between these two teams. The league was unable to adjust to the small ball that the Knicks have been using in both ends of the floor. You would think that the Knicks would be overpowered against physical teams, but the Knicks's switching defense has been leaving the opposing offenses very confused. The best example of that was their game against Indiana last Sunday, where the Pacers's super frontcourt with Roy Hibbert and David West had a massive edge down low, right? Well, West shot 3-12 FG and Hibbert 2-5 FG, while the Pacers as a team shot just 10-13 FG at the rim, while attempting 28 treys and committing 26 turnovers! They really didn't know how to attack the Knicks's defense! Boston may have some edge on that because they are a small team as well, so they won't have to adjust to the Knicks in an extreme way like Indiana or Brooklyn would have to do for example. 

There is a big expectation to see what Carmelo Anthony will do on this series due to his past playoff failures. On the four games where the Knicks faced the Celtics during the regular season, Carmelo averaged 25.3 ppg, but shot just 35% FG. Boston is likely to do a lot of switching on Melo defensively, so it is likely to see all Bradley/Pierce/Green/Garnett defending Melo 1*1 at some point on this series. Melo shot a combined of 40-103 (38.8%) FG against the elite defenses of Boston, Memphis, Chicago and Indiana during the regular season, so there are some doubts on how good he will be on this series. 

Prediction: I believe this will be a tight series that will be decided on details. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if this game ends up needing a Game 7.