NBA Premium Play 03/01: Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors

NBA - 803 Indiana Toronto @ 804 Toronto Raptors

Projected Line: 181 points

Indiana lost yesterday against the LA Clippers, in a game where Chris Paul was the MVP and Roy Hibbert didn't play due to suspension. For several times, Chris Paul would attack off the dribble and Indiana wouldn't prevent him from scoring at the rim, something that wouldn't have happened if Hibbert was playing. The Clippers scored 50 points in the paint, something noticeable, as it was the first time in twelve games that the Pacers allowed more than 50 points in the paint. The last team that was able to do that was Denver, who is #1 in the league in points in the paint per game.

For tonight, Roy Hibbert will be back and of course, Toronto's offense is very far from the Clippers's offense, especially in terms of ball movement and offensive flow. The truth is that Toronto's offense are really struggling on these two areas, as even though they faced a poor defensive team like the Cavaliers on their last game, Toronto still couldn't show any substantial improvement on offense from their previous poor offensive games, with too many isolation plays and contested jumpers. It's incredible how a team shoots 2-20 3pts against a poor defensive team like Cleveland. Tonight, the Raptors will face the #1 ranked defense in the league, so good luck for them. They'll need it! 

On the other hand, Indiana's offense won't be in a good spot to perform well. Yesterday's game against the Clippers was physical and Coach Vogel gave some major minutes to their key players, with David West playing 39 minutes, Paul George 42 minutes and George Hill 38 minutes. They will be on a back to back spot tonight, so this isn't a good spot for them tonight. Their outside shooting is very streaky, so they should in producing good offense in tough spot like tonight's and this is what I expect to happen in here.

Toronto won at Indiana on overtime in early February, in the last game played between these two teams. That game had just 180 points in regulation. I took Toronto on that game, as I thought that Indiana would relax a bit, as they were in the middle of a winning streak and they were facing a lowly team. They didn't have the proper mindset for that game and they eventually lost that game. This time, as they lost yesterday against the Clippers, I expect Indiana to come fired up for this game and do what they can do best and more consistently: play very good defense. This won't be a fun game to watch. I expect a half court battle with Indiana's top ranked defense imposing their will. However, this isn't a good spot for them to perform well on offense, so I expect this game to be an ugly very low scoring affair. I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 186 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 03/01: New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards

NBA - 801 New York Knicks @ 802 Washington Wizards

Projected Line: 190 points | NY Knicks by 6 points

Nene Hilario didn't play in the Wizards's last game against Detroit and it was clear that Washington missed him. They were okay on offense with 47.6% FG and 8-19 3pts, but they were little aggressive with just 10 free throw attempts and poor offensive rebounding numbers as well. Nene won't play tonight as well, so the Wizards's offense will have the same problems on this contest. We have in here a contrast of styles with Washington trying to set a fast tempo, while the Knicks will want to set this game as a halfcourt battle. So, in order to try to guess the kind of pace this game will have, we need to check the previous game between these two teams in February with John Wall already playing. Washington defeated the Knicks by 106-96, in a high scoring game that had a super slow pace of 86.5, so it's clear that the Knicks were able to impose the slow pace they wanted for the contest. Washington won that game because they had one of their best offensive performances of the season with 53.2% FG and 11-20 3pts! Trevor Ariza, who is shooting 41% FG and 33.1% 3pts this season, shot 7-11 FG and 5-7 3pts for 20 points on that game! As the game was played on a very slow pace, the Wizards were only able to score 13 fast break points, as they didn't have a lot of transition chances.

With this scenario of another slow paced contests between these two teams, I really don't believe that Washington's offense will be successful once again on halfcourt basketball against the Knicks. Their great numbers in the previous game against the Knicks were very far from their season averages and they were just an abnormality and they won't be able to do the same thing tonight. On the other hand, the Knicks's offense has been very stagnant lately. They are currently on a 8-games sequence where they fail to reach the 20 assists mark! This is problematic for them, as Washington has been an elite defensive team all season long, with a great perimeter defense and a solid frontcourt unit. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. With the Wizards missing Nene tonight, I don't believe they will be able to hung around with the Knicks down the stretch, who have a lot more solutions than Washington. So, I'll be taking the Knicks in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801 New York Knicks (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/01: Detroit Pistons @ New Orleans Hornets

Detroit  at New Orleans

NBA - 815 Detroit Pistons @ 816 New Orleans Hornets Projected Line: pk line New Orleans won't be at their best tonight, as they will be without Anthony Davis, while Jason Smith is out for the season with a shoulder injury. After a good run, the Hornets are now back at losing in a systematic fashion and the main reason for that is their poor defense! They continue being a terrible transition defensive team and their perimeter defense has been even worse as of late. They are favored by four points against the Pistons tonight, who have been at a similar or even better level than them lately. On the last game played between these two teams, New Orleans went to Detroit to beat them by 105-86, in a very weird game that was a complete no-show for the home team. We know that the Hornets are a poor pick and roll defensive team, but Detroit was so poor in that game that they shot 0-7 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and 3-9 FG and 0.64 PPP on pick and roll roll man plays! Will Bynum was supposed to have a great game against the Hornets due to a huge speed edge against the Hornets's guards, but he shot 0-8 FG in that game, while Greg Monroe shot 1-7 FT! It was a complete no-show for the Pistons, who would have lost big that night against any team in the league. I believe tonight's game will have nothing to do with the game played at Detroit. I'm sure that the Pistons's guards will have a much better performance tonight. Brandon Knight returned on the team's last game at Washington and he had his best game of the season so far with 11-18 FG and 32 points, while Jose Calderon led the team's offense very well with 18 assists! Besides a clear edge on pick and rolls, Detroit's good transition offensive will enjoy the fact that the Hornets are just #27 in the league on transition defense. The Pistons scored 27 fast break points on their last game against the Wizards and I'm sure that they will have another big game on this department tonight. This combination of factors make me believe that Detroit will have a clear edge over the awful New Orleans's defense tonight. On the other hand, with Anthony Davis out of tonight's game, New Orleans will be forced to insert Ryan Anderson in the starting lineup and with that, the Hornets lose their big offensive punch coming off the bench. This has nothing to do with the Pistons's second unit that has Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey. I expect a 50/50 game in here and so, I see a lot of value on the Pistons tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815 Detroit Pistons (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/01: Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics

Golden State  at Boston

NBA - 809 Golden State Warriors @ 810 Boston Celtics Projected Line: 195 points Stephen Curry had a monster game at NY against the Knicks, where he was virtually unstoppable with 11-13 3pts and a league high 54 points for the season! This is particularly remarkable, as he had already played very well in the previous day at Indiana against the #1 ranked defense in the league, with 14-20 FG, 7-10 3pts and 38 points! But the main problem for Curry tonight is that he is human! So, it is natural that he will have a physical letdown today after such a huge effort in back to back games against top teams. Now on a poor spot, as the Warriors will be playing their third game in four nights, all on the road, not only Curry will struggle due to the spot, as he will also be facing the single worst possible matchup in the league for him, with Avery Bradley and Courtney Lee. And it seems that they are ready to face Curry tonight: "The pitbull is not letting that go down," Courtney Lee said while pointing at Avery Bradley. "And when the pitbull gets tired, you've got the other pitbull right here growling." As obvious, Boston's defense with these two players is #1 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense with just 0.71 PPP. In fact, Boston is also #2 in the league in spot up defense with 0.87 PPP. Just the fact that the Celtics are an elite defensive team on these two areas turns them immediately a tough matchup for the Warriors, who rely on pick and rolls and spot up plays on their offense. If we add to the fact that Golden State isn't on a good spot for tonight and it seems clear to me that their offense is going to struggle on this contest. On the other side, Boston is returning home from a long West Coast road trip and they had three days off for tonight, so it's normal that they will feel some rustiness on this contest. Golden State has been atrocious on rim defense without Andrew Bogut, Coach Jackson has been forced to play David Lee and Carl Landry together on the frontcourt, two poor defensive players. The good news for the Warriors is that Boston doesn't have a powerful frontcourt unit, as Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass are mid-range jump shooters and Boston doesn't attempt a high volume of shots at the rim on their games. In fact, we are in front of two jump shooting teams on this contest. We won't see a lot of easy points down low tonight, but rather an absurd number of long range shots and on this potential scenario, both teams aren't on a good spot to perform at their best. Therefore, I see this contest being a relatively low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Under 198,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes TO PURCHASE MY NBA PACKAGE FOR FRIDAY, SIMPLY CLICK HERE - just 20$!

NBA 03/01 Game Previews Articles

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Game Preview Article: Memphis Grizzlies @ Miami Heat

Miami has been toying with lowly teams lately and even though they are very superior to the Cavaliers and the Kings, they almost lost both games and even needed a double overtime to beat Sacramento! Today, I expect their mindset to be quite difference, as Memphis is a top team (they have won their last eight games) and this will be a National TV game. 

“We've got a great opportunity with Memphis coming into our building, who have won eight straight -- that no one talks about,” Lebron James said. “But we know. We talk about them. We look forward to the challenge. We want to go out and try to prove -- nothing [necessarily] to ourselves and nothing to other teams, but we just want to see how we are right now. We know what type of team we can be.” 

I don't know if Miami's in-game inconsistency will happen tonight as well, but what about Memphis? There are some periods of their games where the Grizzlies simply cannot score. Memphis showed that on their recent games against Toronto, Orlando, Brooklyn and Dallas, of course their elite defense compensated that by shutting down their opponents's offense, but that's not something you can do to the Heat for a long period of time. Miami is one of the best teams in the league in turnover rate and if Memphis can't force their usual turnovers, then they will have a low number of transition chances. Memphis will have a huge rebounding edge tonight, even though Miami's rebounding has improved a bit lately, but on the down low, Marc Gasol is just too powerful for Chris Bosh, while with Shane Battier questionable for tonight, Lebron James will have to play some extra minutes at the PF position, as Udonis Haslem can't play more than 20 minutes nowadays.

On the other hand, Memphis's defense is a very physical unit, with Tony Allen guarding Dwayne Wade and Tayshaun Prince guarding Lebron James. Miami's offense is on a roll, but it's important to note that the last time they have faced a top ranked defense, they scored "just" 86 points to Chicago with an offensive rating of 100.5! Tonight's game promises to be a very exciting game between two teams who are very different from the other, but both have been showing a lot of quality this season.

NBA 02/28 Advanced Stats Numbers

L.A. Clippers at Indiana							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
LAC	26	23	27	23	99		88.44	111.80	0.51	11.85	25.71	21.25
IND	25	22	22	22	91			103.03	0.49	18.87	34.15	24.00
Philadelphia at Chicago							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
PHI	22	17	23	20	82		90.12	90.64	0.41	11.30	24.00	14.12
CHI	23	22	23	25	93			103.59	0.40	10.14	30.00	31.33
Minnesota at L.A. Lakers							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MIN	22	25	28	19	94		91.12	103.51	0.50	12.92	14.29	16.05
LAL	28	29	34	25	116			126.87	0.63	14.78	30.95	14.46

NBA Premium Play 02/28: Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 501 Los Angeles Clippers @ 502 Indiana Pacers

Projected Line: 184 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Indiana has been on fire lately and they've been winning games by being red hot on offense or by executing a shutdown on defense. I believe they will use the second way to be competitive on this contest. Indiana's defense has been amazing throughout the whole season, but when they blowout their opponents on offense, the truth is that their defense gets a bit lazy. However, they don't have a good offensive spot tonight, so I believe they will put a big effort on defense.

First of all, we need to analyze the matchup between the Pacers's offense and the Clippers's defense. Ian Mahinmi will start at Center for the Pacers, as Roy Hibbert is suspended. Jeff Pendergraph will be backing up him. The Pacers's offense is based on post ups. Without Hibbert, I don't believe this will happen that much tonight, however they will still have David West. The Clippers's post up defense is #10 in the league with 0.81 PPP allowed, so they aren't a bad unit. They should be able to do a good defensive job on this area, especially as without Hibbert, the Clippers will be able to put more attention on West. The LA team will possibly put Matt Barnes defending Paul George and this won't be an easy matchup for George on offense, even though he is a top 10 player in the league right now. The Clippers also know how to play tough when it's necessary and so, I don't believe in a big offensive game from the Pacers tonight. Indiana has had four recent great offensive performances against Charlotte, NY Knicks, Detroit and Golden State, but these teams play with little aggression, something that won't happen with the Clippers on this contest.

On the other hand, the Clippers's offense will have a real tough opponent. Their offense is back at a nice level, but they have been facing some nice matchups for them lately. They played at Philadelphia against a Sixers team that is showing no effort nowadays, they faced a no-defense Rockets team without James Harden and Jeremy Lin, they played a veteran Lakers team that has no legs to hang with them, they faced a Jazz team with an old and slow starting backcourt and finally, they faced the Bobcats who are.. well, the Bobcats! The only top ranked defense that the Clippers have faced lately was San Antonio and in that game, the LA team scored just 90 points, while having a poor offensive rating of 99.8! Indiana's defense is a poor matchup for the Clippers, just like they are for the whole league. They are #1 in the league in transition defense, so we won't see the Clippers having easy layups tonight. I know Indiana won't have Hibbert tonight and he is known for being a good defender, but the truth is that Mahinmi has also excellent defensive stats! 

Indiana will try to turn this game into a halfcourt contest and without Eric Bledsoe, the Clippers will have to accept that, as they won't be able to set the quick pace that they like to put on their games with their second unit. With the Clippers missing their transition game and with Indiana being also #1 in the league on rim defense with 58% FG allowed, the LA team will struggle big time to be efficient on offense. Therefore, I expect a physical low-scoring affair in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker