NBA Premium Card 04/25

NBA - 741 Chicago Bulls @ 742 Washington Wizards

Play #1

The pace factor of the second game of this series was even “slower” than the first one but w/ both teams being so efficient on the offensive end, the game went OVER already @ regulation. It’s quite obvious that an offensive regression is about to happen for both teams and I really think this is going to happen tonight.

105 points were scored in the first half of G2! The Wizards scored 56 points while shooting 54% from the field. However, they scored just 10 points in the paint, which tells us that almost all their offensive damage was made from the outside @ incredible efficiency! Nene Hilario has been their X factor and I expect the Bulls to make some adjustments for tonight but most of all, I expect WAS’s jumpers to not fall at such ridiculous pace.

On the other end, the Bulls’ offense is struggling (as expected) as only D.J Augustin has been consistent offensive from their backcourt – this is not good news for them! The Bulls strategy for tonight IMO is quite clear: “slow down things and win via defense”.  

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 741/742 Under 182 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA - 739 Toronto Raptors @ 740 Brooklyn Nets

 

Play #2 & #3

The first two games of this series were super strange because we are dealing with two great shooting/spot up offensive teams that completely struggled in both games to hit outside shots.

I took TOR & OVER in G2 and we’ve seen some interesting things from TOR: DeRozan bounced back pretty well from a terrible G1 and the Raptors frontcourt kept dominating down low and on the glass.

However, their problems w/ TO’s is real vs. this aggressive Nets’ defense! DeRozan & Valanciunas aren’t particular good ball handlers and they are prone to commit TO’s when pressured – something that the Nets will keep doing throughout this series.

The biggest “anomaly” for the Nets in the first 2 games was their complete inability to hit outside shots – 11-48 from 3pts land (just 23% mark!)! Note that most of those misses were wide open shots! Sooner or later, those shots will cash for them and playing at home for them has been a good sign:

BKN Reg. Season 3pts% Road: ranked #21 w/ 34.8%
BKN Reg. Season 3pts% Home: ranked #2 w/ 39.1%

For this contest, I expect the Nets to answer pretty well to the fact that they are playing at home. My fair line for this contest is BKN-8/-9 points & 195 points as both teams will start hitting outside shots.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 739/740 Over 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 740 Brooklyn Nets (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 743 Houston Rockets @ 744 Portland Trail Blazers

 

Play #4

Yeah…after watching yesterday’s contest between the Warriors and the Clippers went way below the total posted after two high scoring contests, there is the feeling the same thing will happen tonight. However my fair line for this contest is 218 points and so, we have the proper edge IMO to make a play w/ OVER in here!

Despite losing the first two games of the series, you may think that coach McHale wants to slow down the pace and play better defense, right? You are wrong!

“You can make little tweaks,” McHale said. “We’re looking at doing a couple things differently, but we still have to be who we are. Last game, we didn’t set good screens. We didn’t have good movement. It seemed like we got slowed down. Give their defense credit; they got us stopped out a bit. But when we had a chance to get out and run and get stops, we’ve got to do that. That’s what we do.

“Dwight’s been very good in the post. We have to get the ball back to him in the post through movement. If we just wait to walk it up and get it to the post, it takes us out of how we’re buiilt and how we’ve played all year.”

This series so far has been dominated by LaMarcus Aldridge and Dwight Howard! HOU’s defense can’t guard LMA and POR’s defense can’t guard Howard as well… at the same time, both backcourts have been struggling to be efficient and it’s quite natural a “trade off” may happen in this contest due to the natural pressure for both teams to “double” players.

The pace of this series has been ultra fast! That’s why the Rockets scored 105 points despite hitting 43.3% FG & 3-16 from 3pts! Also, POR’s 3-guards Lillard, Matthews and Batum combined to hit 10-39 FG in G2 (just 25% FG) so there is a lot of room to offensive improvements in this particular area and therefore, I’m taking the OVER in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 743/744 Over 214 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker