NBA Premium Card 04/11

NBA - 701 Washington Wizards @ 702 Orlando Magic

Play #1

WAS is coming from b2b bad offensive games (and losses) against the Bulls and the Bobcats. In the last game vs. CHA, WAS’s inside game w/ Nene + Gortat was great, but the team’s outside shooting simply didn’t exist as the Wizards went 1-15 3pts! In my opinion, WAS’s offense struggled so much in those games (and note that I had plays fading WAS in both contests) especially because they were facing two elite defensive transition teams that held WAS to just 20 total fast break points in those two teams + the fact that both of them were slow paced affairs.

This won’t happen tonight against the Magic…

Without Vucevic, ORL is now using more “small ball” lineups and playing @faster tempo! ORL’s perimeter defense is far from being at the same level of CHI & CHA and so, we can expect WAS’s perimeter shooting to bounce back tonight while WAS’s transition game will work quite well in here.

On the other end, ORL is coming from b2b good offensive games vs. MIN & BKN in which they shared the ball pretty well w/ 29 and 26 assists! Their second unit is playing w/ some good confidence right now! My fair line for this contest is 198/200 points, so I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 194.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 703 New York Knicks @ 704 Toronto Raptors

Play #2

I understand that the Knicks are desperate to win tonight’s game in order to have some (small) chances to qualify for the playoffs, but the Raptors are also playing to secure the third spot in the East and more importantly, they really “hate” the Knicks so we can expect the best possible effort from TOR tonight.

Having said that… There is a considerable gap in quality between these two teams that this current TOR-5 line does not imply that.

NYK perimeter defense is just atrocious! Yeah…they are desperate but they could play a bit of defense, right?! This is not being the case for them…I expect both Lowry and DeRozan to attack them off the dribble and finish easily near the basket!

NYK’s offense is now basically attempting random three pointers… they are averaging 29 3pts per game in L7 games – insane numbers! The problem is that the Raptors are a good perimeter defensive team – allowing just 33.7% from 3pts in L10 games and so, we have a considerable for TOR in both ends of the floor!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Toronto Raptors (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 711 New Orleans Pelicans @ 712 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #3 & #4

Well... OKC is now healthy and so, we can expect them rotate well their players while showing some consistency between the first and the second unit.

I faded the Pelicans in the last game vs. PHX and (once again) lost the play. They were able to competitive due some edge w/ inside game as they scored 44 points in the paint against the undersized PHX’s interior defense! This won’t happen tonight vs. OKC’s superior size @ frontcourt.

It looks like NO’s head coach Monty Williams will using a “big lineup” tonight and by trying to match OKC’s size, NO’s offense will be in trouble to score points.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Oklahoma City Thunder (-16) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 205.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 717 Philadelphia 76ers @ 718 Memphis Grizzlies

Play #5

Suddenly, PHI’s offense is starting to like a decent NBA team as in L3 games their Off. Rtg’s were just great w/ / 117.7, 110.9 and 120.9! They are shooting a bit better from the outside while their center H. Sims has been a nice offensive surprise – he’s coming from a game in which went 10-15 FG!

On the other side, the Grizzlies are coming from one of the best offensive games of this season vs. MEM so we are dealing w/ a confident team right now.

I expect PHI to dictate the pace as the game will be played under “PHI’s terms”! This happened in the first H2H game in which MEM won 103-77 @PHI. It was a low scoring affair but note that MEM was playing their 4th game in 5nights + @b2b spot while the 76ers were playing @b2b spot as well – two tired teams!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Over 201.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 719 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 720 Milwaukee Bucks

Play #6

The story of this play is quite simple: 2 “losing” teams that have aggressive guards (Irving + Waiters vs. Knight + Sessions) and they simply don’t care in playing defense right now = high scoring affair!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 779/720 Over 206.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 701 Washington Wizards @ 702 Orlando Magic

NBA - 715 Detroit Pistons @ 716 Chicago Bulls

NBA - 723 Portland Trail Blazers @ 724 Utah Jazz

Play #7

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

*PARLAY PLAY*

NOTE: The story of this play is quite simple: 2 “losing” teams that have aggressive guards (Irving + Waiters vs. Knight + Sessions) and they simply don’t care in playing defense right now = high scoring affair!

Once again, I’m playing a parlay play w/ 3 teams that I think that will win their games w/ some ease. WAS, CHI & POR will face “losing teams” that don’t care of winning games right now so IMO, this is safer way than releasing three different plays w/ spread. NOTE: if you can’t play ML’s, my suggestion is to play a 3-teams teaser w/ 7.5 pts.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 3-Team Parlay: 701 Washington Wizards ML x 716 Chicago Bulls ML x 723 Portland Trail Blazers ML @ -111 / 1.90 on Betonline