NBA Premium Card 04/16

NBA - 505 Utah Jazz @ 506 Minnesota Timberwolves

Play #1

This should be a fun game to watch! The Wolves are playing @insane pace lately…they are almost exclusively focused in scoring in transition and attacking the rim! In L3 games they have averaged 24 fast break & 54 points in the paint per game! The good news is that they will face a Jazz’ team is the second worst team in transition defense and in L5 games, they are allowing 20 fast break points per game!

Both teams aren’t concerned in playing defense right now… just look for UTA’s defensive performance vs. LAL in their last game! I expect this contest to be a pure run and gun game and this current line of 210.5 points seems to low IMO.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 210.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 509 Detroit Pistons @ 510 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #2

I understand that we are taking some risks in taking the Under w/ DET in this season because so far, DET O/U mark in the season is 55-26 OVER (68% hitting rate!).

However, I believe that this is a good opportunity for us and we are getting an inflated line IMO. First of all, OKC needs to win to secure the #2 seed in the West but this isn’t going to be that difficult against this pathetic DET team.

Probably, Durant & Westbrook will start but I don’t expect them to play so many minutes like they did @NO (more than 40minutes!)! We should see a heavy dose of OKC’s bench and this is why I really the Under in here:

1) Obviously, there will be a considerable drop off in terms of offensive efficiency without Westbrook & Durant and this will help DET’s defense

2) OKC’s have some great size on the bench to matchup vs. DET’s frontcourt… Collison, Adams and even Thabeet will give some size to OKC and so, DET’s won’t punish OKC down low & boards like they are used to do.

My fair line for this contest is 208/210 points and so, I'm taking the Under in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 213 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 517 Philadelphia 76ers @ 518 Miami Heat

Play #3

We’ve faded the Heat in their last game @WAS:

“LeBron James and Chris Bosh will miss tonight’s contest while D. Wade will play limited numbers. The Heat did the same thing in the last season with good results but I don’t expect a similar outcome because MIA’s second unit is far from having the same quality of the last season. Actually, in the last game vs. MIA, MIA’s second unit scored just 8 points w/ shooting 3-14 FG…”

The same thing can be said for them tonight as both Bosh & James are confirmed to miss this contest! Obviously, the 76ers do not have the same quality vs. WAS’s but I expect them to be competitive as they are really playing hard lately and winning do not change their chances in the lottery (they will finish w/ the second worst record in the league).

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Philadelphia 76ers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 521 Chicago Bulls @ 522 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #4

Today’s card is pretty specific as not only we have to be focused on the matchups but also (and especially) w/ injuries, “taking” or playoff seeding!

When the Bulls faced the Knicks, I took NYK w/ the following mindset:

Unfortunately for us, the Pacers have defeated the Thunder today and basically they locked up the #1 seed on the East. They “just” need to beat the Magic on the final day of the regular season to have the home court edge throughout the playoffs – their primary goal for the season.

So, what in the hell I’m talking about this in here?!

With the Pacers being the #1 seed, the Bulls can “choose” between facing the Pacers or the Heat @ 2nd round and between us, the answer is pretty easy to guess, right? They just “need” to let TOR be the #3 seed…

For this contest, I expect the Bulls to be more “relaxed”

Well, the Bulls indeed lose that game and the Raptors took over the #3 seed… Note that this contest is @7PM EST while the Raptors game is @8PM EST, so I expect the Bulls to not be that “much focused” vs. CHA who still have a legit chance to be #6 seed and avoid the Heat in the first round.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Charlotte Bobcats (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 529 Los Angeles Clippers @ 530 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #5

The first H2H games between these two teams were super high scoring games but for tonight, circumstances have changed and both teams will simply go into a “maintenance mode” w/ some key players missing the game! I expect the tempo of the game to be relatively slow w/ few FT’s due to the lack of “aggression” from both teams.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 529/530 Under 207.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 513 Washington Wizards @ 514 Boston Celtics

NBA - 516 Brooklyn Nets @ 517 Cleveland Cavaliers

Play #6

Playoff seeding! 1) The Wizards really want to avoid facing the Heat in the first round of the playoffs so they can’t lose tonight as w/ a win, the Bobcats will pass them in the standings vs. BOS that “can’t” win more games; 2) It looks like the Nets are also trying to avoid playing vs. CHI in the first round as well – almost their entire starting lineup is OUT for tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 2-Team Parlay on 513 Washington Wizards ML x 517 Cleveland Cavaliers ML @ -138 / 1.73 on Betonline