NBA Premium Card 04/10

NBA - 503 Denver Nuggets @ 504 Golden State Warriors

Play #1 & #2

I didn't have the proper time to write about my play w/ Denver last night (money line play) but the concept was pretty easy: the Rockets wouldn't have the proper “legs” to hang around w/ DEN in a potential crazy super fast paced affair after playing in the previous day a similar contest @LAL.

Well, for today we have almost the same exact spot but this time, working against the Nuggets!

GSW’s is playing their best basketball of the season right now w/ David Lee OUT of the lineup. D. Green is a better fit for the Warriors in both ends of the floor… Obviously, he isn’t a better offensive player than D. Lee but, IMO he fits better than Lee in a more uptempo offensive system. GSW’s offense has been stagnant when they are playing @slower pace but w/ Green on the floor = smaller lineup = more uptempo = more efficiency.

GSW’s last game vs. UTA had pace factor = 99.0 when the 3 previous H2H game’s between GSW & UTA had a pace factor of 90.3, 89.6 & 90.6! You can see the big difference in terms of pace…

So for tonight, we have the Nuggets trying to push the ball @ every chance against them. Curry and Klay Thompson will be defended by Brooks & Foye. (I don't need to say much about the offensive edge that GSW will have in this particular matchup, right?!). We have the Nuggets allowing 41.1% from 3pts in L10 games (#29 worst mark in the league during this stretch) so, we can guess what will happen tonight: a GSW’s offensive explosion!

Eventually, DEN may have some energy to keep up the pace but their bad physical spot will catch them sooner or later! Note that DEN is 1-8 ATS so far in the season @b2b spots on the road being the Underdogs!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Golden State Warriors (-12) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 214.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes