NBA Premium Play 12/28: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 711 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 712 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected line: 198 points | Oklahoma City by 4 points

***AS WE CURRENTLY HAVE 6 POINTS OF EDGE ON THE OVER, WHICH IS ENOUGH EDGE FOR A DOUBLE DIME PLAY, I'M UPGRADING THE OVER TO A DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Yes, I know this is a big revenge spot for Memphis, as they were just eliminated by Oklahoma City in the 7th game of a tough playoff series last year and therefore, they want revenge! This is a great spot and we've seen this season Miami getting revenge over Dallas in a somewhat similar spot, however I don't think revenge will happen in here because unlike MIA/DAL, where Miami had a clear physical edge over Dallas, this time it's Oklahoma City who has a physical edge over Memphis!

The Grizzlies are yet to gel this season and Zach Randolph is far from his best shape and against SAS, he went just 3-8 FG and grabbed just 6 rebounds against a team that had Duncan and Blair in foul trouble the whole game! They have tremendous problems in the continuity in the first and second unit, which is normal because they lost three big backup players from last season in Battier, Vazquez and Arthur! Besides that, they need to reinsert Rudy Gay in the system again. 

The result of all these problems were three sloppy games (two of them vs NOH in the preseason) and against the Spurs, they committed 25 turnovers! With so many turnovers committed, OKC will absolutely abuse them in transition! In their last game against Minnesota, OKC scored 20 fast break points and went 29-31 FT! With all the sloppiness of the Grizzlies, I expect big numbers from Oklahoma City in these areas. OKC has an excellent continuity between the first and second unit, unlike Memphis. 

In the playoffs, there were two factors that allowed Memphis to be so competitive in the series against the Thunder: frontcourt edge and defense on Durant. For tonight, we've already seen that Zbo isn't at his best right now and on the other side, Perkins is on his best physical form ever! So, Memphis won't have the same frontcourt edge they had last season against the Thunder! Also last year, Memphis defended well Durant, as he refused to work down low and take advantage of size advantage. However this season Durant improved his post up game and he even went 5-5 FG at the rim vs ORL! Right now, Oklahoma City is the better team and they are especially in better physical form right now, so my fair line for this game is at least one full possession in favor of the Thunder.

I have also a 199 totals line projected for this contest. Memphis won't be able to stop the Thunder offense and because this is a regular  season, I don't think the umpires will have such a large criteria as they had in the postseason and so, I'm also taking the over on this contest. 

Pick: 1 unit on 711/712 Over 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units on 711/712 Over 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Oklahoma City Thunder (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker