This is a message about my goals and objectives for the upcoming NBA season. First of all, here's a recap of my regular season numbers over the years. There's a link at the end of this message to download a play-by-play sheet of every single season.
| Total 1-2-3 USA: | Total 3-4-5 EUR: | Total 3-4-5 USA: | |||||
| 06-07 | 29.65 | 06-07 | 91.41 | 06-07 | 94.62 | ||
| 07-08 | 51.74 | 07-08 | 82.99 | 07-08 | 91.47 | ||
| 08-09 | 9.99 | 08-09 | 50.35 | 08-09 | 36.37 | ||
| 09-10 | 34.38 | 09-10 | 74.02 | 09-10 | 74.36 | ||
| 10-11 | 11.16 | 10-11 | 44.6 | 10-11 | 46.55 | ||
| TOTAL | 136.92 | TOTAL | 343.37 | TOTAL | 343.37 | ||
Now I'll make a breakdown about the previous season.
| Splits | W | L | Per |
| Sides | 290 | 251 | 53.6% |
| Over | 105 | 115 | 47.7% |
| Under | 111 | 86 | 56.3% |
I've always felt more comfortable in picking unders than overs and it looks like my model agrees with that. I couldn't get a profit on my over plays and this was unacceptable for a sample of more than 200 plays. For this season, I'll have to adjust the minimum edge required for us to have an over play. This won't mean that we'll have less over plays than last season because we can have more value with overs this season, but in similar conditions from the past season, we are likely to have less over plays.
I've also made a breakdown of the plays in line segments:
| Spread Favorites Breakdown | |||
| Range | W | L | Per |
| 0 / -3 | 48 | 40 | 54.5% |
| -3.5 / -6 | 49 | 48 | 50.5% |
| -6.5 / -9.5 | 55 | 41 | 57.3% |
| -10 / -14.5 | 25 | 23 | 52.1% |
| -15 / + | 3 | 3 | 50.0% |
| Total | 180 | 155 | 53.7% |
| Spread Underdogs Breakdown | |||
| Range | W | L | Per |
| 0.5 / +3 | 33 | 13 | 71.7% |
| +3.5 / +6 | 28 | 30 | 48.3% |
| +6.5 / +9.5 | 28 | 26 | 51.9% |
| +10 / +14.5 | 4 | 6 | 40.0% |
| +15 / + | 1 | 0 | 100.0% |
| ML's | 16 | 21 | 43.2% |
| Total | 110 | 96 | 53.4% |
| Unders Breakdown | |||
| Range | W | L | Per |
| 0 / 180 | 3 | 1 | 75.0% |
| 180.5 / 190 | 34 | 26 | 56.7% |
| 190.5 / 200 | 41 | 41 | 50.0% |
| 200.5 / 210 | 26 | 16 | 61.9% |
| 210.5 / 220 | 7 | 2 | 77.8% |
| 220.5 / + | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 111 | 86 | 56.3% |
| Overs Breakdown | |||
| Range | W | L | Per |
| 0 / 180 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 180.5 / 190 | 11 | 9 | 55.0% |
| 190.5 / 200 | 42 | 38 | 52.5% |
| 200.5 / 210 | 40 | 46 | 46.5% |
| 210.5 / 220 | 10 | 20 | 33.3% |
| 220.5 / + | 1 | 1 | 50.0% |
| Total | 105 | 115 | 47.7% |
And also in days of the week:
| Weekdays | W | L | Per% |
| Sunday | 76 | 52 | 59.4% |
| Monday | 72 | 55 | 56.7% |
| Tuesday | 62 | 55 | 53.0% |
| Wednesday | 101 | 116 | 46.5% |
| Thursday | 22 | 17 | 56.4% |
| Friday | 102 | 91 | 52.8% |
| Saturday | 71 | 66 | 51.8% |
My worst day was clearly the Wednesdays, which was the day with more plays, something that is quite normal considering it's the day of week with more games played (together with Fridays).I couldn't even hit 50% of Wednesdays, with this day of the week being a disaster in January, with a 11-30 record on Wednesdays during this specific month.
I created a month breakdown as well:
| Months | W | L | Per |
| November | 79 | 79 | 50.0% |
| December | 97 | 67 | 59.1% |
| January | 87 | 107 | 44.8% |
| February | 76 | 70 | 52.1% |
| March | 123 | 89 | 58.0% |
| April | 44 | 40 | 52.4% |
The month of January was my black month, especially in the final two weeks of this month, where I had a 36-60 run. It's hard to say why I had such a bad run or what I could do to prevent that to happen again. What I've decided is to tighten up the edges when I am in a losing streak until the proper adjustments have been made. This is all subjective stuff, I would like to avoid losing streaks to happen but we all know that predicting the future is something we can't do.
Finally, I've also release my plays on a team-by-team breakdown, both for sides and totals:
| Sides Teams Breakdown | Totals Teams Breakdown | ||||||
| Name | W | L | Per | Name | W | L | Per |
| Atlanta | 30 | 16 | 65.2% | Atlanta | 18 | 16 | 52.9% |
| Boston | 18 | 17 | 51.4% | Boston | 16 | 11 | 59.3% |
| Charlotte | 18 | 22 | 45.0% | Charlotte | 17 | 11 | 60.7% |
| Chicago | 20 | 17 | 54.1% | Chicago | 16 | 15 | 51.6% |
| Cleveland | 12 | 11 | 52.2% | Cleveland | 15 | 15 | 50.0% |
| Dallas | 19 | 23 | 45.2% | Dallas | 12 | 14 | 46.2% |
| Denver | 21 | 13 | 61.8% | Denver | 9 | 13 | 40.9% |
| Detroit | 14 | 16 | 46.7% | Detroit | 13 | 14 | 48.1% |
| Golden State | 23 | 15 | 60.5% | Golden State | 10 | 10 | 50.0% |
| Houston | 17 | 17 | 50.0% | Houston | 9 | 11 | 45.0% |
| Indiana | 22 | 14 | 61.1% | Indiana | 12 | 19 | 38.7% |
| LA Clippers | 17 | 23 | 42.5% | LA Clippers | 11 | 15 | 42.3% |
| LA Lakers | 15 | 10 | 60.0% | LA Lakers | 19 | 12 | 61.3% |
| Memphis | 27 | 19 | 58.7% | Memphis | 18 | 19 | 48.6% |
| Miami | 20 | 13 | 60.6% | Miami | 15 | 18 | 45.5% |
| Milwaukee | 21 | 16 | 56.8% | Milwaukee | 12 | 12 | 50.0% |
| Minnesota | 18 | 15 | 54.5% | Minnesota | 9 | 10 | 47.4% |
| New Jersey | 15 | 18 | 45.5% | New Jersey | 9 | 10 | 47.4% |
| New Orleans | 20 | 19 | 51.3% | New Orleans | 20 | 12 | 62.5% |
| New York | 19 | 15 | 55.9% | New York | 11 | 16 | 40.7% |
| Oklahoma City | 17 | 21 | 44.7% | Oklahoma City | 13 | 14 | 48.1% |
| Orlando | 24 | 14 | 63.2% | Orlando | 21 | 10 | 67.7% |
| Philadelphia | 20 | 18 | 52.6% | Philadelphia | 15 | 13 | 53.6% |
| Phoenix | 20 | 16 | 55.6% | Phoenix | 12 | 9 | 57.1% |
| Portland | 20 | 15 | 57.1% | Portland | 11 | 18 | 37.9% |
| Sacramento | 20 | 19 | 51.3% | Sacramento | 23 | 12 | 65.7% |
| San Antonio | 25 | 13 | 65.8% | San Antonio | 18 | 14 | 56.3% |
| Toronto | 14 | 18 | 43.8% | Toronto | 18 | 17 | 51.4% |
| Utah | 18 | 20 | 47.4% | Utah | 13 | 12 | 52.0% |
| Washington | 16 | 18 | 47.1% | Washington | 19 | 10 | 65.5% |
About the upcoming season: I've worked the whole summer to improve my model for this year's NBA season and to add more elements of analysis to the teams. I have now the data of the last 3 seasons in shot locations for every team in every game played. I have also worked to develop a power ranking that is divided in three different categories: scoring, possession and net assists. This power ranking will give a clear picture in what terms are stronger or weaker.
This season will be a different season from the usual, with a short schedule, so the work will be more than usual. However, I hope and expect that this season will bring a lot of profit to us. I've been working very hard on the NBA since the last season ended and I'll continue working very hard during the season and I am confident that I will have my best NBA season ever this year.
I wish you all a great NBA season and if you have any question or just want to give me some feedback, feel free to e-mail me.
To download the excel file with all my plays from the past 5 seasons, Click HERE and click on the feature "download original"
Best regards,
André Gomes
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