NBA Premium Play 04/01: Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA - 737 Boston Celtics @ 738 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Line: Minnesota by 8 points

I expect the Celtics to heavily struggle tonight on a very poor spot for them. They are coming from a blowout loss in NY last night against the Knicks, where their offense showed absolutely no flow with just 12 assists. Paul Pierce is doubtful for tonight, so things will only get worse for them on offense. I believe Jeff Green will try to carry the Celtics's offense on his own and besides the fact that he is quite inconsistent, the Wolves have Andrei Kirilenko to guard him to limit Green's effectiveness on offense tonight. Therefore, I expect another poor offensive showing from the Celtics tonight, especially when they have no presence on down low. They will have to settle for jump shots as usual, but Minnesota is #6 in the league on spot up defense and should be able to limit the Celtics's offense very well tonight. 

On the other hand, I believe Minnesota will be able to have a decent offensive game tonight. Ricky Rubio is in excellent form and he is leading his team's offense to some nice performances as of late. The Celtics's defense seems to be regressing lately as well, something normal considering they have been playing without Kevin Garnett and they will be also without Paul Pierce tonight. The Wolves's offense bases most of their offense on pick and rolls and the truth is that Boston's defense has been also regressing on this area as well. They have been an elite defensive team on pick and roll ball handler plays throughout the whole season with 0.70 PPP, but they have allowed 0.81 PPP on this kind of plays over their last 10 games! I believe Minnesota will take advantage of their better spot for tonight and the Celtics's terrible offense to get a comfortable win over Boston in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 738 Minnesota Timberwolves (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/01: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 733 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 734 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: Atlanta by 14 points

Cleveland got crushed at New Orleans last night, even though Kyrie Irving returned to the lineup and had a big game with 11-20 FG, 31 points and 6 assists. The offensive boost from Irving's return was evident, but the Cavaliers's problem is really on defend. They were completely outrebounded by the Hornets last night, as they grabbed just 40% of the rebounds, while the Hornets's offense did whatever they wanted to do with the Cavs's defense: 12-21 3pts and 46 points in the paint. Even the slow paced Hornets were able to score 19 fast break points against Cleveland's horrible transition defense! It clearly seems that the Cavaliers have given up on the season and their locker room is currently dealing with some problems between the coach and the players:

Byron Scott's future with the Cavs is "in question," according to the Akron Beacon-Journal. One anonymous Cavs player told the paper that the team is "exhausted" at this point, and went as far as to say Scott "killed us in camp. Out shootarounds are an hour and 45 minutes." One player defended Scott saying that his teammates should "shut up and play," but there are questions about Scott in the front office and this won't be the last time we hear a rumble like this.

The Cavaliers have a tough back to back game at Atlanta tonight, especially with Kyrie Irving not playing. Considering their defense with a poor transition defense and weak rim protection, they will get absolutely crushed by Atlanta's athletic offense! The Hawks are coming from a home win against Orlando, where Al Horford didn't play and Nikola Vucevic has a nice game with 8-17 FG, 17 points and 15 rebounds. However, Cleveland doesn't have any big man with the offensive skills of Vucevic, so they don't do the damage that Orlando was able to do down low. Therefore, I expect an easy blowout win for Atlanta tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 734 Atlanta Hawks (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/01: Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors

Detroit  at Toronto

NBA - 731 Detroit Pistons @ 732 Toronto Raptors Projected Line: Toronto by 3 points Both teams played yesterday and they lost. Toronto didn't have a lot of chances against a shorthanded Wizards, as I had predicted on my Over play, Toronto's poor perimeter defense didn't show any effort and they were unable to stop John Wall, who ended the game with 7-15 FG and 10 assists. On the other hand, Detroit was super competitive at Chicago last night for the first time in a few games. It was interesting to watch Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond outplaying Chicago's frontcourt! Even though Detroit lost the game by 1 point, the team outplayed Chicago by 8 points when Greg Monroe was on the court and by 11 points when Andre Drummond was on the court! The Pistons's frontcourt duo will be decisive on tonight's game, as I expect Detroit to be competitive in here. These two teams faced each other in Detroit last week, in a game where the Raptors had a huge third quarter, where they outscored Detroit by 36-15 to achieve a 99-82 blowout win at the end. That game was the first time Drummond started a game alongside Monroe and they were completely outplayed by Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas, who combined 16-22 FG, 34 points, 21 rebounds, 4 assists and 6 blocks! Their defensive positioning wasn't the best, while the team didn't take advantage of them on offense. Detroit played much better yesterday and against a much tougher opponent like the Bulls and so, I expect the frontcourt battle to be at least competitive tonight. With a balanced battle down low, I don't see the Raptors having the edge on the backcourt tonight, especially with Jose Calderon fired up on his first trip to Toronto as a Piston. Therefore, I expect a much closer contest than the lines are suggesting and so, I'll be taking the Pistons tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 731 Detroit Pistons (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 04/01: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

Boston  at New York Yankees

MLB - 915 Boston Red Sox @ 916 New York Yankees (Starting Pitchers: J. Lester vs C. Sabathia) The Red Sox have in my opinion a good chance to make some noise in the AL East this season, but for that they will need monster seasons from Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. And the truth is that these two pitchers showed some great stuff in Spring Training. Lester was very inconsistent last season, but he seems to be very focused right now, as he was fantastic in the preseason with a .101 BA and 0.50 WHIP allowed, while having a ridiculous 20/4 K/BB ratio. He will face a shorthanded Yankees's roster, who is struggling to find healthy batters let alone competitive ones. The Yankees will use Sabathia today as their SP and unlike Lester, Sabathia is still dealing with some elbow issues and he played just 10 innings during the Spring Training and without good results. Despite facing a ridiculous Red Sox last season, CC still struggled against Boston in two starts with a 5.14 ERA and the Red Sox seem to be better and especially more focused at the start of this season. Therefore, I believe Boston is the favorite to win today's contest and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lester) @ -102 / 1.98 on Bovada

NBA 03/31 Advanced Stats Numbers

Toronto at Washington							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
TOR	25	25	26	16	92		88.68	103.67	0.44	12.33	27.66	25.93
WAS	27	33	30	19	109			122.99	0.54	8.47	30.43	21.18
Cleveland at New Orleans							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CLE	21	28	24	19	92		91.70	97.51	0.51	13.82	7.69	10.98
NO	23	25	36	28	112			125.77	0.62	14.74	24.32	27.03
Detroit at Chicago							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DET	24	33	17	20	94		87.97	107.98	0.55	17.23	22.86	20.83
CHI	20	33	18	24	95			106.87	0.45	8.77	21.28	35.53
Miami at San Antonio							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MIA	22	18	31	17	88		84.31	107.09	0.55	12.42	7.69	14.08
SA	24	21	19	22	86			99.49	0.49	16.50	30.23	11.39
Boston at New York							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
BOS	23	25	21	20	89		84.36	106.41	0.48	12.48	22.50	24.32
NY	28	37	21	22	108			126.92	0.58	13.18	26.32	33.33