NBA - 501 Chicago Bulls @ 502 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected line: 184 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Oklahoma City has been rebounding very well lately by grabbing 54.3% of the boards in their last 5 games. In their game against Miami, they pounded down low with an edge on boards and by shooting 20-29 FG at the rim, while against the Lakers, they had a high volume on the inside even though they lacked the same efficiency from their game against the Heat, as they shot just 19-34 FG at the rim and 5-13 FG from 3-9 feet. On this game against the Bulls, Oklahoma City will have some problems in facing the Bulls frontcourt, as not only Chicago is an excellent rebounding team, as they are also a great team in defending the rim by allowing just 56% FG this season and 53% FG in their last 5 games.
Chicago's defense is also a top team in defending ISO plays (#3), P&R Ball Handler (#4), Spot-Up (#6) and Cuts (#7)! Their only potential problem is really on transition plays, however the Bulls have been playing at a much slower pace lately, with an average pace of 85.4 in their last 10 games and 84.7 in their last 5 games, in comparison to their season average of 88.2, so the opportunities of Oklahoma City to score in the transition will be in a small number today. Then, we will have Deng defending Durant and Westbrook being stopped by the Bulls' great team help defense, so the Thunder will definitely struggle on offense today against the Bulls' excellent defense, especially when Chicago is a team with a super low number of opponent FT rate, which means that it will be very hard for the Thunder to have a mega number of free throw attempts on this game.
On the other side, Chicago without Rose has been having problems to score down low, with just 57% FG at the rim in their last 10 games. I believe we will see Ibaka having a huge block day, as in the Bulls' last 10 games, their opponents have been averaging 5.8 blocks per game! Chicago has been using a lot of spot ups, cuts and P&R ball handler plays lately and Oklahoma City's defense is #12, #2 and #9 in the league in these areas respectively.
I believe both teams will be able to play some great defense today and they will should be able to stop their opponents' offense in a much clear way than the sportsbooks are expecting it to happen. Therefore, I came up with a totals projection of 182 points for this game, low enough for me to take the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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