Soccer English Premier League Play: West Bromwich Albion @ Manchester United

Soccer English Premier League - West Bromwich Albion @ Manchester United

WBA is coming from a 3-0 win over Sunderland, in a game that certainly gave them a good confidence boost. Stephane Sessegnon had a good debut as an attacking midfielder connecting the ball well to the offense, however Sunderland had some chances to score and tie the game at 1-1 and only after Sunderland went down to 10 men because of an injury, WBA was able to score the second and third goal of the game. WBA is playing better with Sessegnon, but the truth is that they had just scored one goal in four games and their defense is still weak.

Manchester United is coming from a humiliating loss on the Manchester derby against the City. Robin van Persie didn't play in that game, but he won't play today as well, but at least Young and Valencia won't be part of the team's offense this time around. They will play with Nani and Kagawa helping Rooney and Chicarito in the front, something should make the WBA's defense struggle today. I believe in a nice bounce back win for Man Utd today and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Manchester United (-1,25) @ -135 / 1.74 on 5Dimes

Soccer English Premier League Play: Chelsea @ Tottenham Hotspur

Soccer English Premier League - Chelsea @ Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham managed to beat Cardiff last Sunday with an extra time goal, in a game where they dominated. Nothing that happened in here surprised me. Cardiff used their defensive style once again, while Tottenham with Eriksen was able to create a lot of scoring chances with 29 total shots, including 12 of them on target! Cardiff also created a few chances, but they were mostly due to Tottenham's defensive errors. Tottenham played mid week for the League Cup and they crushed Aston Villa by 4-0 even though they mostly used back ups on the lineup. 

Chelsea played a good game against Fulham on Saturday, taking in account that Fulham used a super defensive scheme the whole game, even after being on a losing position. Chelsea's lack of width on offense is problematic against opponents that use very defensive schemes against them. Coach Jose Mourinho started Andre Schürrle to counter that and the truth is that they were more dangerous from the right side of the field thanks to that.

We have 50/50 odds practically for this game, but I give the edge to Tottenham in here. Both teams are solid on defense, but Tottenham has more dynamic on offense, especially with Eriksen on the lineup. Their corner backs help the offense more and Tottenham has a lot more width on their offense than Chelsea. I've been waiting for a good opportunity to take the Over in a game involving Tottenham as well, as all their leagues so far have gone Under the total. Tottenham had 23 and 29 total shots on their last two league games, they created a lot of scoring chances, but they scored just a total of three goals! However, their defense was excellent by not allowing a single goal. However, they faced two defensive-minded teams in Norwich and Cardiff. Things with Chelsea will be different, as they will put pressure all over the field, giving more space to Tottenham in the process. Of course, the opposite will also happen. Chelsea is coming from a game against Fulham, where they didn't have space to counter attack, something that will happen in here.

I expect a game where both offenses are indeed show that they are improving as the season goes by and so, this totals line is too low. I also believe Tottenham should be favored in here, as they have more creativity in the attacking midfield and on offense, while their defense is as good as Chelsea's. Ramires is out for this game and this is also a huge blow for Chelsea's midfield. Therefore, I'll be taking both Tottenham and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.25 @ -116 / 1.86 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Tottenham Hotspur (PK) @  -136 / 1.73 on 5 Dimes

Toronto Raptors NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

TORONTO RAPTORS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	90.4	24
Offense	105.9	14
Defense	107.5	22
Rebound	49.5	21

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	48.8	18	eFG%	50.0	17
TO%	13.0	5	TO%	13.6	16
Reb%	25.5	20	Reb%	26.6	17
FT%	21.6	11	FT%	24.7	30

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	4-13	103.9	108.2
December	7-7	110.5	109.6
January	5-10	111.0	111.4
February	7-5	106.2	105.1
March	4-11	104.8	112.4
April	7-2	108.7	105.1

The Raptors came into the past season with some expectations to be one of the Eastern Conference’s biggest surprises. After all, with their new head coach Dwane Casey, the Raptors improved from being the worst defense in the league in back to back seasons to a Top 15 team on defensive rate in the previous season. This was a huge accomplishment, while their biggest flaw (lack of speed on the backcourt) was corrected with the signing of the underrated PG Kyle Lowry and the draft of Terrence Ross. It seems like GM Bryan Colangelo was so obsessed in improving the team’s perimeter defense that he had no problems in completely overpaying the forward Landry Fields.

On the other hand, Andrea Bargnani was always a major question mark in terms of his availability let alone his performance levels, but the Raptors was going to receive the young Lithuanian Jonas Valanciunas, who would be their post up player for the future, so they had some legit expectations for the past season.

What was the reality? A 4-19 start! The Raptors lost games via all possible scenarios, including three road losses in a row by 32, 19 and 18 points at Utah, at LA against the Clippers and at Portland; three losses in a row by 1, 1 and 5 points after overtime at Charlotte, Detroit and San Antonio. It didn’t matter in what way, the Raptors just kept on losing.

Toronto eventually improved a bit until Bryan Colangelo made a big bet trade in January by trading for Rudy Gay, in order to try to make a playoff push. The short term outcome of this trade couldn’t have been better, as the Raptors won seven of their following ten games, three of them by 4 or less points (100-98 at Indiana, 92-88 at NY against the Knicks and 100-98 once again against the Knicks). The franchise had finally their “closer” for the present and the future!

The problem was that the Raptors won just four of their following 18 games and their season was over, even though they won their last seven games of the season to end it with a more respectful 34-48 final record.

A lot of things went terrible for the Raptors at the end of the day…

Kyle Lowry didn’t have the breakthrough season that people were expecting after a good season at Houston. He started the season a bit out of shape and he was outplayed by Jose Calderon at the PG battle in such a way that Calderon became the team’s starting PG. Lowry clashed with head coach Dwane Casey, something worrying giving his previous track record of clashes with head coaches (he had already clashed with Kevin McHale in Houston and also with Lionel Hollins in Memphis).

Andrea Bargnani was an absolute cancer for the team in every possible way and I’m not even going to talk more about this, as it was the same old story that happens with Bargnani every season.

Landry Fields earns +6M$ per season, but played just 20 minutes per game and averaged 4.7 points/game. Enough said! Even though Coach Casey has never trusted on his rookies a lot, Jonas Valanciunas showed some flashes that he can indeed become a key piece for the future of this franchise, while Terrence Ross has never been used a lot by Casey.

NFL Week 4 Premium Play 09/26: San Francisco 49ers @ St Louis Rams

NFL Week 3 - 101 San Francisco 49ers @ 102 St Louis Rams

Projected Line: San Francisco by 6 points

The Rams have been a completely one-dimensional team on offense this season: 38/24, 55/18 and 48/12 pass/rush on their first three games of the season! I believe the biggest reason why they are throwing the football so much is because they aren't going anywhere with their running game with a -50.2%, -17.5% and -38.7% rushing DVOA on these three games! Anyway, the truth is that it isn't hard to stop the Rams' offense right now. San Francisco stopped Andrew Luck well last season, but they were surprisingly crushed by the Colts' running game led by Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson. The Rams' running game is nowhere near this dangerous and so, I believe San Francisco's defense will bounce back and shut down the Rams' offense today, even though the 49ers are currently dealing with some injuries on defense right now.

San Francisco's offense has been struggling this season and considering they had a short rest between games, there could be some fatigue problems for them tonight. However, I believe Coach Jim Harbaugh is going to simplify things for Colin Kaepernick, with more read option and more running the ball. The other good news for the 49ers offense tonight is that Frank Gore had just 11 carries against Indianapolis on Sunday and so, he should be fresh to pound the Rams tonight. I also expect Vernon Davis to play tonight, something that is absolutely huge for San Francisco tonight, as even if he doesn't make a lot of plays, he will still command two defenders in man coverage at all times, giving space to the other receivers to get the ball. I expect a strong bounce back for the 49ers in here, in a good matchup for both their offense and defense and so, I'll be taking San Francisco tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 101 San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

Brooklyn Nets NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

BROOKLYN NETS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	88.8	28
Offense	108.2	8
Defense	106.2	17
Rebound	52.4	3

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	49.8	13	eFG%	50.3	20
TO%	14.0	20	TO%	13.1	23
Reb%	30.9	3	Reb%	26.3	12
FT%	21.9	7	FT%	17.4	2

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	11-4	109.1	104.0
December	5-11	105.1	112.5
January	11-4	112.9	107.2
February	7-5	105.0	108.3
March	8-7	112.3	109.2
April	7-2	113.9	105.4

Very few teams had so many ups and downs in the same season as the Brooklyn Nets had last season.

The hype was huge at the start of the season and it wasn’t even bigger because the Nets failed to sign Dwight Howard after a very long “soap opera”. As they couldn’t sign Howard, they decided to lock up Brook Lopez with a long term contract.

On paper, the Nets would have an incredible starting lineup with Brook Lopez, Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace, Joe Johnson and Deron Williams, a tough matchup to almost everybody due to their superior size in almost every position. In fact, things started great for Brooklyn, who ended November with an 11-4 record and with their coach Avery Johnson winning the Eastern Coach of the Month award.

However, the Nets basically took advantage of a soft early schedule (six of those wins were against Orlando (x3), Cleveland, Toronto and Sacramento), but as soon as their schedule got tougher, the Nets lost 10 of their following 13 games, with Avery Johnson getting fired because of that.

Avery Johnson’s job with the Nets will always be related with his inability to make Deron Williams be the player that he was in Utah. Of course the main culprit of that has to be Deron himself, but the truth is that Johnson’s style of managing didn’t help Deron one bit: the Nets were one of the slowest paced teams in the league (#3 slowest), something predictable given their lack of speed, however Avery had the tendency to call almost every offensive set, something that removed Deron from having any kind of creative freedom on court, something ridiculous considering the fact that Deron is one of the most talented PG’s in the league.

Under P.J. Carlesimo, the Nets improved dramatically mostly due to Deron Williams’s much better form, but we were still in front of a quite unbalanced team.

Kris Humphries lost his starting spot to Reggie Evans and as great as he was in rebounding, Evans was a black hole on offense, whose job was just to screen and rebound. To make things even worst, Gerald Wallace lost all his self-confidence on offense and he confessed that to the press:

“My confidence is totally gone.” Gerald Wallace told The Post Saturday. “I’m just at the point now ... I’m in a situation where I feel like if I miss, I’m going to get pulled out of the game; you know what I’m saying? So my whole concept is just that you can’t come out of the game if you’re not missing shots. I think I lost the confidence of the coaching staff and my teammates. So my main thing is those guys can score, so instead of thinking about it so much, just trying to focus on defense, try to move the ball and get those guys shots.”

Gerald Wallace had a terrible second half of the season with an awful 33.5% FG, 13.5% 3pts and 60% FT! If it’s tough to hide a non-offensive threat on the lineup nowadays, then imagine playing with two players on their starting lineup who aren’t offensive threats! It’s a recipe for disaster in the playoffs, something that would eventually really happen to them in the postseason.

Anyway, Brooklyn had home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, as they were #4 in the Eastern Conference, with a solid 49-33 record. The experience gained from last season could have been positive if it wasn’t for the ridiculous way that they got eliminated in the playoffs, on a decisive Game 7 at home, where they lost to a depleted Bulls team.

Chicago’s coach Mike Thibodeau took advantage of the problems that I mentioned previously to completely ignore both Reggie Evans and Gerald Wallace when the Nets had the ball. It was bizarre to watch Nate Robinson “guarding” Gerald Wallace, but that worked great for the Bulls. The lack of mental toughness and competitiveness from the Nets was crystal clear and that gave them a bad taste from what happened last season.

Soccer Spanish Liga BBVA 09/26 Play - Real Betis @ Athletic Bilbao

Soccer Spanish Liga BBVA - Real Betis @ Athletic Bilbao

NOTE: No writeup for this Play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Real Betis (+0,5) @ -103 / 1.97 on Pinnacle OR @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Soccer Premium Card 09/22

Soccer English Premier League - Manchester United @ Manchester City
This is obviously a huge game between the two top clubs from Manchester that are also the two most recent English champions. Both teams have new coaches this season and this is probably why they haven't been impressive early on the season. Manchester City is getting about 45.5% chances to win this game versus 28% chances from Manchester United, something that I can't agree with as I expect this game to be quite close. Both teams have recently overcome some weaknesses and they are now in decent conditions to play good soccer. City's defense hasn't been impressing me early in the season, but their best defender in Vincent Kompany returned to the lineup mid week to save them.

On the other hand, Manchester United showed a lot of problems on building up offensive plays with their midfield unit not giving a lot of support in the process. When Moyes started Anderson against Crystal Palace, things were disastrous! The good news if that Fellaini started mid week for the Champions and the improvement was huge, with the United playing with a higher tempo on offense, while showing more intensity as well. Wayne Rooney is finally focused in playing and not in finding a new team, something that has already resulted in an amazing performance against Leverkusen last Tuesday. Suddenly, a team that had problems in creating scoring chances had 16 total shots against the underrated Leverkusen!

Both teams will use a similar style with two strong center midfielders and with one positional striker plus a mobile one: Yaya Toure + Fernandinho vs Michael Carrick + Fellaini; Edin Dzeko + Sergio Aguero vs Robin van Persie + Wayne Rooney! David Silva is questionable for this game and even if he plays, he won't be physically at 100% in a huge blow for City, who don't have any quality replacement for a healthy Silva. I expect this game to be a great one to watch, with two confident teams that are coming from a nice wins on the Champions League. The odds aren't reflecting the tight contest that I expect this game to be and so, I'll be taking Manchester United in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Manchester United (+0,5) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

Soccer English Premier League - Tottenham Hotspur @ Cardiff City
Tottenham did a great job in signing some players, as they knew that Gareth Bale would leave the club. They have been looking solid on defense, they have a cold blooded striker, their midfield line was strong, but they had a deadly weakness: they didn't have a quality attacking midfielder who could give the team some much needed creativity. This was visible when they lost by 0-1 at Arsenal, in a game where they didn't have any scoring chances, even though they dominated the ball possession. 

Things changed in the last day of the trade deadline, when Tottenham signed Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela. While the latter will need some extra time to adapt to a new culture, Eriksen is already making an instant impact on the team, with Tottenham having now an offensive playmaker capable of making a good connection between the midfield line and the forwards. Thanks to that, Tottenham dominated Norwich with 69% of ball possession and 23 total shots, with seven of them being on target! The new dynamic turns Tottenham into one of the EPL's top teams and they aren't getting the respect from the linemakers on this game that they deserved, as we are getting a ML line of around -110 for them in here: a mere 52% chances to win!

Cardiff City is on a nice run of three games without losing, where they defeated Manchester City at home, drew Everton 0-0 on the road and then drew again on the road against Hull City. In all these three games, Cardiff had a defensive approach as expected, but their opponents still had a high volume of shots with 16, 13 and 18! Cardiff's approach on this game will help Tottenham, who dominated the ball possession in their first games in the league but struggled to create chances. Things are now different due to Eriksen's arrival, so I expect Tottenham to pick up the win in here, especially when their coach Andre Villas Boas rotated well the lineup in their Europa League mid week game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Tottenham Hotspur (-0,5) @ -109 / 1.92 on Pinnacle OR @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker 

Soccer Spanish Liga BBVA - Villareal @ Celta Vigo

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

If we exclude the top teams Barcelona and Real Madrid, together with the impressive Atletico Madrid as well, very few teams that can match the fluid offense that both Villareal and Celta Vigo are showing on this early season. Therefore, the matchup between these two teams will likely become a high scoring contest! Unsurprisingly, both teams are in the league top 10 in all offensive stats: shots, shots on target, success pass rate% and ball possession.

Villareal is coming from a 2-2 draw against Real Madrid, where they could have won, considering their scoring chances during the game. In fact, the man of the match was Real's goalkeeper Diego Lopez, who was amazing and made some excellent saves. Villareal's great offense has been unstoppable this season and they have scored 3, 2, 3 and 2 goals on their first four league games! Meanwhile, Celta Vigo led by Luis Enrique (a super offensive minded coach) has also a super positive attitude. They went to inaugurate Bilbao's new stadium and lost the game, even though they gave a lot of trouble to the home team by scoring two goals. Even though Celta drew their first two home games, they are a super offensive minded team, with 57% and 65% ball possessions in those two games, while having 15 and 17 shots!

It's almost ridiculous that we have in today's card a game between Valencia and Sevilla with a totals line of 2.75, while this super wide open game is treated with a 2.5 line! My fair line in here is 3 goals and so, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Over 2.5 @ -114 / 1.88 on Pinnacle OR @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker