NFL Week 12 Premium Play 11/25: San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins

NFL Week 12 - 233 San Francisco 49ers @ 234 Washington Redskins

Play #1

This game will be played on very cold temperatures between two teams who are indeed run oriented. While Washington has passed the ball 56% of the times and rushed 44%, San Francisco has rushed the football for 55% and passed only 45% of the time. The Redskins' defense has been a disaster all season long, but their run defense has been average over their last four games with 3.50%, 2.90%, -6.90% and -4.30% run defense DVOA. With LG Mike Iupati out of tonight's game, I expect the 49ers' running game to be less sharp than usual and with Colin Kaepernick lacking confidence after two poor games against Carolina and New Orleans, I believe that San Francisco's offense will indeed struggle tonight. I also believe Jim Harbaugh will want his team to be physical against Washington by pounding the ball and this will burn a lot of time from the clock.

On the other side, Washington's running game has been improving with the help with RGIII and that has been the key factor for their offense. In fact, over their last six games, they managed to get 24.90%, 20.50%, -2.70%, +19.00%, 12.60% and 24.90% on their running game DVOA! However, the 49ers' after a bye week are coming from two good defensive games against Carolina and New Orleans, where they lost but their defense did a good job. Therefore, I expect them to have another good performance tonight against the Redskins offense. I believe this game will be an old low-scoring affair between two teams who like to run the football a lot and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 233/234 Under 46 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NFL Free Premium Play 11/10: Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers

Carolina  at San Francisco

NFL Week 10 - 219 Carolina Panthers @ 220 San Francisco 49ers Play #4 San Francisco is coming from a bye week, after beating Jacksonville in London two weeks ago. On the other hand, Carolina had three games in a row where their pass offense impressed, but they struggled much more on offense against Atlanta last week with a poor -4.30% pass offense DVOA. This was the result of some poor play from Cam Newton, who had 23/37, 249 yards, 6-7 Y/P and 1/2 TD/INT against the Falcons. Curiously, San Francisco has been facing some weak opposition lately, as they faced Houston, Arizona, Tennessee and Jacksonville on their last four games. But the area where both teams have been excellent is on defense. Carolina's DL has been even better than San Francisco's DL with a better run blocking and with 23 sacks over San Francisco's 17. I expect this game to be an ugly one, with a lot of running and with Carolina being indeed competitive. San Francisco's last three games went over the total posted, while Carolina saw the total going over in three of their last four games as well. This was due to the fact that they have been facing lowly teams and they take advantage of that to have good offensive games. That won't happen today and so, I expect both teams' offenses to struggle in here. Both the 49ers and the Panthers are run-oriented teams, with great defenses and with two QB's that are game managers and nice runners as well. Therefore, I expect this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 219/220 Under 43,5 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NFL Week 4 Premium Play 09/26: San Francisco 49ers @ St Louis Rams

NFL Week 3 - 101 San Francisco 49ers @ 102 St Louis Rams

Projected Line: San Francisco by 6 points

The Rams have been a completely one-dimensional team on offense this season: 38/24, 55/18 and 48/12 pass/rush on their first three games of the season! I believe the biggest reason why they are throwing the football so much is because they aren't going anywhere with their running game with a -50.2%, -17.5% and -38.7% rushing DVOA on these three games! Anyway, the truth is that it isn't hard to stop the Rams' offense right now. San Francisco stopped Andrew Luck well last season, but they were surprisingly crushed by the Colts' running game led by Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson. The Rams' running game is nowhere near this dangerous and so, I believe San Francisco's defense will bounce back and shut down the Rams' offense today, even though the 49ers are currently dealing with some injuries on defense right now.

San Francisco's offense has been struggling this season and considering they had a short rest between games, there could be some fatigue problems for them tonight. However, I believe Coach Jim Harbaugh is going to simplify things for Colin Kaepernick, with more read option and more running the ball. The other good news for the 49ers offense tonight is that Frank Gore had just 11 carries against Indianapolis on Sunday and so, he should be fresh to pound the Rams tonight. I also expect Vernon Davis to play tonight, something that is absolutely huge for San Francisco tonight, as even if he doesn't make a lot of plays, he will still command two defenders in man coverage at all times, giving space to the other receivers to get the ball. I expect a strong bounce back for the 49ers in here, in a good matchup for both their offense and defense and so, I'll be taking San Francisco tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 101 San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

NFL Premium Play 09/15: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

NFL Week 2 - 221 San Francisco 49ers @ 222 Seattle Seahawks

Projected Line: San Francisco by 1 point

I watched both week 1 games involving these two teams and after that, it's hard not to like the 49ers in here. San Francisco is coming from a tremendous offensive performance against Green Bay, while their defense looked good against the run, but struggled against the pass thanks to a great performance by Aaron Rodgers. On the other hand, Seattle is coming from a very tough win at Carolina. The Panthers' OL crushed Seattle and opened a lot of space for their running game to have a great performance with 134 rushing yards (5.2 Y/C). Of course Seattle limited Cam Newton to just 125 passing yards, but San Francisco's offense will be a much tougher matchup for them. The difference will be especially on 3rd&short situations, where Colin Kaepernick has in Auquan Boldin and Vermon Davis two excellent solutions to grab the first down. 

On the other hand, Russell Wilson is coming from a really good performance against the Panthers with 25/33 and 320 yards, but they struggled on the red zone by going 0-3, possibly because of a poor performance of Marshawn Lynch. Things won't be any easier for Lynch against San Francisco's excellent run defense, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Seahawks' offense to struggle once again tonight in capitalizing their great opportunities to score touchdowns. San Francisco was humiliated last season at Seattle and on this key divisional game, I believe the 49ers will be super fired up to win in here. Even though Seattle has been improving a lot over the past two seasons, I still rate San Francisco as the overall better team and on this specific spot, I expect them to overcome Seattle on a very physical battle. I'm taking the 49ers in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 221 San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker