Soccer Champions League Free Premium Card 10/22

UEFA Champions League - Chelsea @ Schalke 04

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Chelsea (-0,25) @ -108 / 1.93 on Pinnacle OR -113 / 1.89 on 5Dimes

UEFA Champions League - Borussia Dortmund @ Arsenal

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 3 @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

UEFA Champions League - Atletico Madrid @ Austria Wien

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2,75 @ -124 / 1.81 on 5Dimes

UEFA Champions League - Zenit Petersburg @ FC Porto

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Zenit Petersburg (+1) @ -135 / 1.74 on Bookmaker

UEFA Champions League - Barcelona @ AC Milan

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Barcelona (-0,75) @ -134 / 1.75 on Pinnacle OR -137 / 1.73 on 5Dimes

Soccer Premium Card 09/22

Soccer English Premier League - Manchester United @ Manchester City
This is obviously a huge game between the two top clubs from Manchester that are also the two most recent English champions. Both teams have new coaches this season and this is probably why they haven't been impressive early on the season. Manchester City is getting about 45.5% chances to win this game versus 28% chances from Manchester United, something that I can't agree with as I expect this game to be quite close. Both teams have recently overcome some weaknesses and they are now in decent conditions to play good soccer. City's defense hasn't been impressing me early in the season, but their best defender in Vincent Kompany returned to the lineup mid week to save them.

On the other hand, Manchester United showed a lot of problems on building up offensive plays with their midfield unit not giving a lot of support in the process. When Moyes started Anderson against Crystal Palace, things were disastrous! The good news if that Fellaini started mid week for the Champions and the improvement was huge, with the United playing with a higher tempo on offense, while showing more intensity as well. Wayne Rooney is finally focused in playing and not in finding a new team, something that has already resulted in an amazing performance against Leverkusen last Tuesday. Suddenly, a team that had problems in creating scoring chances had 16 total shots against the underrated Leverkusen!

Both teams will use a similar style with two strong center midfielders and with one positional striker plus a mobile one: Yaya Toure + Fernandinho vs Michael Carrick + Fellaini; Edin Dzeko + Sergio Aguero vs Robin van Persie + Wayne Rooney! David Silva is questionable for this game and even if he plays, he won't be physically at 100% in a huge blow for City, who don't have any quality replacement for a healthy Silva. I expect this game to be a great one to watch, with two confident teams that are coming from a nice wins on the Champions League. The odds aren't reflecting the tight contest that I expect this game to be and so, I'll be taking Manchester United in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Manchester United (+0,5) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

Soccer English Premier League - Tottenham Hotspur @ Cardiff City
Tottenham did a great job in signing some players, as they knew that Gareth Bale would leave the club. They have been looking solid on defense, they have a cold blooded striker, their midfield line was strong, but they had a deadly weakness: they didn't have a quality attacking midfielder who could give the team some much needed creativity. This was visible when they lost by 0-1 at Arsenal, in a game where they didn't have any scoring chances, even though they dominated the ball possession. 

Things changed in the last day of the trade deadline, when Tottenham signed Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela. While the latter will need some extra time to adapt to a new culture, Eriksen is already making an instant impact on the team, with Tottenham having now an offensive playmaker capable of making a good connection between the midfield line and the forwards. Thanks to that, Tottenham dominated Norwich with 69% of ball possession and 23 total shots, with seven of them being on target! The new dynamic turns Tottenham into one of the EPL's top teams and they aren't getting the respect from the linemakers on this game that they deserved, as we are getting a ML line of around -110 for them in here: a mere 52% chances to win!

Cardiff City is on a nice run of three games without losing, where they defeated Manchester City at home, drew Everton 0-0 on the road and then drew again on the road against Hull City. In all these three games, Cardiff had a defensive approach as expected, but their opponents still had a high volume of shots with 16, 13 and 18! Cardiff's approach on this game will help Tottenham, who dominated the ball possession in their first games in the league but struggled to create chances. Things are now different due to Eriksen's arrival, so I expect Tottenham to pick up the win in here, especially when their coach Andre Villas Boas rotated well the lineup in their Europa League mid week game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Tottenham Hotspur (-0,5) @ -109 / 1.92 on Pinnacle OR @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker 

Soccer Spanish Liga BBVA - Villareal @ Celta Vigo

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

If we exclude the top teams Barcelona and Real Madrid, together with the impressive Atletico Madrid as well, very few teams that can match the fluid offense that both Villareal and Celta Vigo are showing on this early season. Therefore, the matchup between these two teams will likely become a high scoring contest! Unsurprisingly, both teams are in the league top 10 in all offensive stats: shots, shots on target, success pass rate% and ball possession.

Villareal is coming from a 2-2 draw against Real Madrid, where they could have won, considering their scoring chances during the game. In fact, the man of the match was Real's goalkeeper Diego Lopez, who was amazing and made some excellent saves. Villareal's great offense has been unstoppable this season and they have scored 3, 2, 3 and 2 goals on their first four league games! Meanwhile, Celta Vigo led by Luis Enrique (a super offensive minded coach) has also a super positive attitude. They went to inaugurate Bilbao's new stadium and lost the game, even though they gave a lot of trouble to the home team by scoring two goals. Even though Celta drew their first two home games, they are a super offensive minded team, with 57% and 65% ball possessions in those two games, while having 15 and 17 shots!

It's almost ridiculous that we have in today's card a game between Valencia and Sevilla with a totals line of 2.75, while this super wide open game is treated with a 2.5 line! My fair line in here is 3 goals and so, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Over 2.5 @ -114 / 1.88 on Pinnacle OR @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

Soccer English Premier League Premium Play 09/21: Fulham @ Chelsea

Soccer English Premier League - Fulham @ Chelsea

I don't like taking a team three times in a row, after losing the first two plays, but I expect Chelsea to have a strong bounce back in here on a great matchup for them. Chelsea lost at home against Basel mid week for the Champions League and I really don't understand why Jose Mourinho chose to start Willian instead of Mata or starting Eto'o again, who has been horrible. The good news is that this loss will probably lead to some chances in the lineup. I don't believe Eto'o will be a starter for the third time this week, while Ramires sat out in last Wednesday's game due to suspension and he should return to the lineup in here. Also Juan Mata is hoping for a recall after Willian's horrible game against Basel.

This game is getting a lot of buzz due to Chelsea's poor moment, but everybody is ignoring the fact that Fulham is in my opinion the worst team in the EPL right now. If it wasn't for a fluke win in Round 1 at Sunderland and they would be in the bottom three in the standings right now. Fulham's offense has been awful. Dimitar Berbatov has been erratic and his lack of speed is great for a slow footed defense such as Chelsea's, who struggled against Everton's speed on the front. Fulham is a team built to attack the wings, especially on the right side and that's also a good matchup for Chelsea, who has two good defensive minded corner backs in Ivanovic and Cole.

So, the key matchup in here will be on the center of the midfield where Chelsea with creative midfielders such as Oscar, Hazard and Mata will make Fulham struggle in protecting this area. A fresh Ramires will be a horrible matchup for the veteran Scott Parker as well. Fulham's defense hasn't been great neither. They allowed their opponents to shoot 21, 19 and 25 times on their first three games of the season, while even the lowly WBA was able to shoot 12 times against them last week. I expect Fulham's offense to be easily controlled by Chelsea in here, while the Blues will have a great matchup to produce some goals in here against Fulham's subpar defense. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Chelsea and so, I'll be taking them on the spread in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Chelsea (-1,5) @ -114 / 1.88 on Pinnacle OR Betonline (same line)

Soccer English Premier League Premium Play 09/21: Sunderland @ West Bromwich Albion

Soccer English Premier League - Sunderland @ West Bromwich Albion
WBA's last game against Fulham was one of the worst in the season so far, something normal considering these two teams are two of the worst in the league right now. WBA has a decent defense, but their midfield is lacking creativity, while their offense is also quite weak, with a completely past his prime Nicolas Anelka being their first option for the position. Anichebe already played at Fulham, but the truth is that WBA is still unimpressive on offense and if it wasn't for a goal on a corner in the 92th minute, they wouldn't have scored a single goal in four games!

Sunderland is coming from a normal home loss against Arsenal, but Di Canio's team created several scoring chances, while having more shots (18) than Arsenal (14), but Arsenal's individual talent made the difference at the end. Sunderland struggled on defense due to Arsenal's dynamic midfield, but that will happen to every non-top team that faces Arsenal this season. For this game, Sunderland will have two huge upgrades, as club captain John O'Shea returns from suspension, while Emmanuele Giaccherini returns from injury.

I can't accept WBA having almost 50% chances to win this game. Of course that on a lowly teams duel, the home court edge is important, but WBA's offense lacks the individual talent that Sunderland possesses, especially with Giaccherini back. The biggest edge that I see in here favoring WBA will be on set pieces plays, but with O'Shea back, I believe that Sunderland's defense will be successful in avoiding dangerous situations from this kind of plays. WBA is yet to have more than 50% ball possession on a game this season and so, on a home game against another lowly team, they will struggle in stepping into a role of having to control the game. Sunderland with more individual talent will explore WBA's problems on the midfield with counter moves with Giaccherini helping the super powerful striker Altidore, who will be a huge threat in here, with open space to explore. I believe Sunderland isn't going to lose this game and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Sunderland (+0,5) @ -113 / 1.89 on Pinnacle OR -118 / 1.85 on 5Dimes

Soccer English Premier League Premium Play 09/21: Hull City @ Newcastle United

Soccer English Premier League - Hull City @ Newcastle United

Newcastle was terrible on their first two games of the seasons, with no goals scored and just one shot on target over 180 minutes of soccer! On round 3 and with their coach Pardew being on tremendous pressure to win the game to save his job, Newcastle finally got a well deserving win by 1-0 against Fulham, on a game where they had 54% of ball possession, 25 total shots and 9 of them on target. Last week, already with the French midfielder Cabayé on the starting lineup, together with Remy, plus the regained confidence of having won the previous week's game, Newcastle was able to have a good offensive performance at Aston Villa, so this was why I took the Over in that game, with Newcastle doing their job with two goals on 17 total shots and 8 shots on target, while having a lot of scoring chances. There is no reason why I should believe that this won't happen again this week, as Newcastle is now a quite confident team, with Ben Arfa in excellent form!

Hull City is coming from a home draw against Cardiff, in a game where they were solid, created several scoring chances (18 shots, but just 5 on target), while their striker Danny Graham had a horrible miss close to the goal line. I like Hull's attitude on their road games (at Chelsea and at Man City), where they created problems to the opposing defenses by refusing to just defend and creating some decent scoring chances. So, I expect something similar to happen in here.

Of course that with these two teams having just 3 and 2 goals scored on their first four games, the oddmakers were forced to set a totals line of just 2.25 goals, something that gives us a lot of value on the Over, as my fair line for this game is 2.5 goals. Newcastle is now showing a lot more dynamic on offense and confidence in comparison to their first two games of the season, while Hull should continue trying to show some offense on road games. Things will get easier this week for them, as Yannick Sagbo is coming back from his suspension and he will replace in the lineup the terrible striker Danny Graham. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2,25 @ -117 / 1.85 on Pinnacle OR @ -119 / 1.84 on 5Dimes

Soccer Champions League Premium Play 09/17: Shakhtar Donetsk @ Real Sociedad

Soccer Champions League - Shakhtar Donetsk @ Real Sociedad

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

***TOP PLAY***

From all the major leagues that I've been following on this early-season, the Spanish league is clearly the one that has been showing better quality over the other major leagues such as the English, Italian or German ones. Therefore, I immediately give an extra edge to Spanish leagues on European competitions right now. I saw Real Sociedad's two games against Lyon in the Champions League play-off round and they showed an impressive maturity for a team that isn't used to play on this kind of competitions. They know how to defend and their counter attacks are simply awesome! On the Spanish league, they currently have one win, two draws and one loss, but I don't give a lot of importance to this "subpar" start, as not only their loss was against Atletico Madrid (who is playing amazingly right now), as Real's two draws are in games that were followed by Champions League's games, on clear lookahead spots for them.

Real Sociedad will face today Shakhtar Donetsk, a overrated team right now, as they are very far from the level they showed last season. Shakhtar was one of the best surprises of the Champions League last season, as they pushed Chelsea into the Europa League on group stage. However, they sold their two best players on this off-season. Fernandinho went to Manchester City, while Henrikh Mkhitaryan went to Borussia Dortmund. Of course Shakhtar also spent a lot of money in new players, with almost all of them being young Brazilian players who were still playing on their country and so, they need to adapt to a new soccer, language and culture before being able to play at a decent level. 

The truth is that after nine rounds of the Ukraine league last season, Shakhtar had scored 29 goals, while this season after nine rounds, they have just 19 goals scored! They started last season with nine wins in a row, while they have already lost twice this season, with these two losses being on two of their last three games! When a team like Shakhtar, who has a much bigger budget than their local opponents, struggles to dominate, this is a really bad sign. So, we are in front of two teams with very different chemistry levels right now and also competing at a really different level. Real Sociedad will play at home and with their current level, I expect them to have little problems in taking out the struggling Shakhtar. If this game was played last season, I wouldn't have a play in here, but with Shakhtar's current level. I'm taking Real Sociedad in here in a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on Real Sociedad (-0,25) @ -112 / 1.89 on 5Dimes

Soccer Champions League Premium Play 08/28: Lyon @ Real Sociedad

Soccer Champions League  - Lyon vs Real Sociedad

Pinnacle Sports odds: Real Sociedad -102, Lyon +308, Draw +270, Over 2.5 -119

***TOP PLAY***

This contest is the opposite of what I expect from the early game of the day between Zenit and Pacos de Ferreira as we have a perfect matchup for a high scoring game due mostly for the mental attitude that the French team will have to put on the pitch today.

Real Sociedad won in France 2-0 the first leg and showed an exciting game that was highlighted by two spectacular goals. The final score was a “huge surprise” as the French team was the clearly favorite go through this series. However that win was well deserved as Real Sociedad was not shy of playing on the road despite having several young players. They dominated the ball possession w/ 53%, they attempted more shots than Lyon 12 vs. 11 and they even had more corner kicks as well 7 vs. 6. Besides the two goals, the game had 2 balls that hit the post and only in the last 15 minutes of the game we saw a decrease of intensity because of a red card showed to a Lyon’ player.

For today I expect the French team to go to the pitch with an “all out attack” mindset from the start as they simply don’t have any margin to think otherwise. They cannot afford to have a more cautious role because time is running against them; the only way is to score goals if they want to qualify for the Champions League this season.

However this expected mindset from Lyon will put Real Sociedad in a comfortable spot of having more space to counter attack and use their good pace/speed on the front. This Spanish team has the same style of the last season despite having a new coach: they play a fluid offensive game and early on the day I’ve read some pre-match comments from their coach saying that if they start the contest with a “speculation mindset”, then they will lose the game because they simply don’t know how to play in that role.

Both teams are coming for this contest after subpar performances in their domestic leagues. Real Sociedad draw @Elche 1-1 while Lyon lost at home against Reims 0-1. It was a clear signal that both teams were thinking ahead of time for tonight’s big game so intensity and pace will be present in this contest.

I think we should be dealing with a 3 goals line in this contest as no matter what team scores first tonight, the opposition won’t change their offensive mindset and that fits well a high scoring game and that’s why I’m taking the Over as a Top Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Over 2.5 Goals @ -116 / 1.86 on 5 Dimes