MLB Free Premium Play 08/25

MLB Free Pick: 955 Milwaukee Brewers @ 956 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs. E. Stults)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 956 San Diego Padres ML @ +122 / 2.22 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The Padres have been probably the most underrated team in this second half of season. We’ve won our play yesterday @ARI, and I’m going to play them today as well.

They will send LHP Eric Stults to the mound and Stults (like their offense) has been terrific lately! His 3.30 FIP & 3.94 xFIP numbers during this month (4 starts) are decent and please note that 3 of thos starts were against decent offensive team batting vs. LHP’s: ATL ranked #4, STL #10 & LAD #15, still he was decent in every game!

On the other end, MIL’s SP Kyle Lohse returns to action after dealing w/ a bad ankle. He is clearly struggling lately w/ 5.07 FIP & 5.07 xFIP in this second half and this Padres’ offense aren’t anymore a dreadful unit – I have them being ranked #4 in this second half of season! Having the chance to get SD @ plus money at home is a valuable proposition for me!

Daily Message 08/25

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 125-104 ATS | +52.3 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 125-104 ATS | +17.8 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 7-9 ATS | -16.4 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 7-9 ATS | -6.2 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

San Diego ML WIN

Over COL/MIA 10.5 WIN

NY Mets ML WIN

Yesterday's Soccer Recap Plays:

QPR +1.25 LOSS

Stoke City +0.25 Half WIN

Daily Message: 

We swept the board last night in the MLB by going 3-0 ATS in our plays. We have now reached the 50-units mark of profit for the season for a new season high +52.3 units of profit. I remember that we started the season not in a good fashion w/ a low mark of -24.2 accumulated units in June, 7th so this has been a good turnaround since then. Once again guys… “this is a marathon, not a sprint!”

We are now 90-65 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +23.9 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +66.0 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +100 / 2.00, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

In Soccer, we didn’t have a good weekend at all! It has been a rough start for us, but I’m fairly confident that he will bounce back pretty strong in the future as I’ have full confidence in my ability. We just need to make some adjustments and we’ll be fine!

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 08/24

MLB Pick #1: 909 New York Mets @ 910 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: B. Colon vs. K. Correia)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 909 New York Mets ML @ +110 / 2.10 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

I think we have some value w/ NYM as long as they are listed as underdogs in this contest.

This is an emotional spot for NYM’s SP Bartolo Colon who will head to the Dominican Republic following the game for his mother’s funeral. Colon has been pretty decent for quite some time w/ his only bad performance being vs. SF. A game that I remember pretty well because we faded him after his 121-pitches performance in the previous outing – a clear letdown spot for him! He is “rested” for today and this current LAD roster doesn’t have many AB’s against him, actually, the last time he has faced LAD was in…2006!

On the other end, LAD’s SP Kevin Correia enjoyed a nice debut w/ LAD uniform @ATL but he then failed to deliver a quality outing vs. SD at home by allowing 4 ER’s in just 5 IP’s. This is what we will get from Correia! I don’t think that he is going to hang around w/ Colon and therefore, I’m taking the Mets today.      

Soccer English Premier League Premium Card 08/24

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Hull City vs. Stoke City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Stoke City (+0.25) @ -113 / 1.88 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

It looks like we have to start once again from behind in a new sports season… It happened w/ the NBA, NFL and more recently w/ the MLB, and we were able to grind back pretty strong and finish the season way ahead. Hopefully it will happen w/ this Soccer season as well!

For this contest, I’m riding once again Stoke City as long this +0.25 is available @ decent price.

I’ve made some notes about Stoke City in their inaugural game vs. Aston Villa:

“We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.”

I think that they will be pretty comfortable playing on the road this season as their possession oriented style suits them well in controlling the flow of the game – they were an underrated good road team last season having lost only two games since February and those were at Manchester City and Chelsea.

Hull City was able to defeat QPR in the first game in a game that they were a bit lucky as QPR missed several good chances including a penalty kick. Both teams used a similar 3-5-2 formation and the superior “experience” of Hull City prevailed in the game. However, even though they were playing w/ a conservative mindset after grabbing the lead, Hull City still conceded plenty of chances to QPR.

This contest will be a fairly contested affair w/ both teams having a pro-active approach and in my opinion, both teams have the same chances of winning the game.

MLB Premium Card 08/23

MLB Pick #2: 951 San Francisco Giants @ 952 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Lincecum vs. J. Zimmermann)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 952 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 @ +120 / 2.20 on betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The Nationals needed a wakeup call last night after winning 10 consecutive games – the majority of them were from walk-off wins, so they were feeling super confident going forward for yesterday’s game vs. SF.

Now that the streak is gone, I expect them to be more focused for today. More importantly, I expect them to be ready to take advantage of Tim Lincecum’s recent struggles. Lincecum has an awful 5.02 FIP mark & 10.0% BB% mark in this second half of season. He has 11 walks in his L4 starts and WAS lineup has a good batting history against them in the past: in 126 AB’s against them, they have .294 BA & .897 OPS! I’m fading him on this spot!

On the other end, WAS’s SP Jordan Zimmermann has been solid for quite some time. He has an excellent 2.92 FIP & 3.15 xFIP numbers in this second half of season and I expect him to be decent in here.

MLB Pick #3: 955 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 956 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: E. Volquez vs. W. Peralta)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 955 Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ +123 / 2.23 on 5 Dimes

I have the Brewers as a slight favorite on my Power Rankings and therefore, we are getting some value w/ Pittsburgh at this +120 / 2.20’s odds.

PIT’s SP Volquez has been decent lately. His L2 starts were against DET & WAS – two tough matchups and still, Volquez was pretty good in those games. Poor command has been the biggest problem for him and fortunately, he will face a MIL lineup that doesn’t have much patience: they are ranked just #25 in BB% this season w/ 6.7% BB% mark (and #21 in L30 days w/ 7.1% BB%).

On the other end, MIL’s SP W. Peralta bounced back on his last start @LAD (we’ve lost a play against him) but still, he keeps struggling w/ his command! He walked 3 batters and has a poor 9.4% BB% rate in this second half of season. His problems basically are the same as of Volquez. However, the Pirates have a patient lineup: they are ranked #5 in the league in BB% rate w/ 8.6%! A. McCutchen is finally gaining a nice rhythm since coming off an injury and we must not forget that PIT is the second best offensive team in the league vs. RHP’s! They should be such underdogs in this contest!

English Premier League Premium Card Round 2 08/23

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Newcastle (+0.25) @ -128 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

(Note that this contest is going to be played @7:45 AM EST / 1:45PM CET!)

We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.

The problem is that by playing at home, Villa are “pressured” to use a more offensive style – something that they tend to struggle especially without their two top forwards in Benteke and Libor Kozák.

Newcastle United was a nice surprise against the champions Man City. They lost 0-2 but they were not that far from squeezing a draw in that game. Their new signings (especially Cabella and Riviere) were dynamic and Newcastle showed some great speed on the front w/ their mobile forwards. Like Villa did in Round 1 against Stoke City, Newcastle can be pretty dangerous on the counter. Villa didn’t concede much space on the back vs. Stoke City, but by playing at home in front of their fans, they will use a more offensive style and therefore, Newcastle will enjoy some space after recovering the ball.

Aston Villa struggled badly at home in the last season and by using the same exact style of play, I wouldn’t be surprised if those home struggles carry on for this new season.

Newcastle (PK) has some value but I like more the +0.25 AH line as long as the line is “better”  than -135 / 1.71, so I’m taking the visitors in this contest.

Soccer Pick #2: Premier League - Leicester City @ Chelsea

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Chelsea (-1.75) @ -121 / 1.83 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -123 / 1.81 on Betonline)

Detailed write up:

Chelsea looked completely dominant in the first half against Burnley, even though they suffered an early goal. As usual, they pressured high on the pitch but this time around, they had the proper offensive flair that was lacking in the last season via the “Fabregas” factor.

Fabregas’ skilled passes made the ultimate difference in that game! Chelsea struggled last season against the lower level competition because they lacked the proper creativity to open up games vs. packed defenses. Oscar was a factor early on the season but he completely disappeared on the second half of season.

In a typical Jose Mourinho style, once Chelsea scored their third goal, they were focused in controlling the game without spending much energy, so the rest of the match was “boring” to say the least.

In this first home match of the season, I think that Mourinho wants to put a show in front of his fans. I just can’t see Chelsea’s being happy to hold a one-goal lead through the entire second half!

We cashed w/ Leicester City in their first game vs. Everton as they scored a late goal to tie the game 2-2. Their coach made some nice tactical adjustments in the second half after being completely outplayed in the first half. Nevertheless, Everton was the better team in that game as Leicester is still adjusting to the Premier League.

Soccer Pick #3: Premier League - W.B.A @ Southampton

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Southampton (-0.5) @ -116 / 1.86 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -115 / 1.87 on Betonline)

Detailed write up:

I’m fading once again West Brom in this round after going against them in their first game vs. Sunderland.

They draw 2-2 in that game and I must say that I wasn’t impressed w/ their performance. Actually, they scored the first goal via a non-existent penalty kick and globally, they looked to me a prime candidate to be relegated in this season.

I can’t say the same about Southampton as they looked pretty good against Liverpool. With innumerous departures and some others signings, I thought that they would need some time to find a proper chemistry between them but I wrong as they looked sharp in some moments of the game. Actually, they could have easily grabbed one point from Anfield.

With such advanced team chemistry displayed in their first official game of the season, I expect them to cruise past W.B.A. today.

Soccer Pick #4: Premier League - Burnley @ Swansea City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Both Teams To Score @ -119 / 1.84 on Pinnacle Sports 

Detailed write up:

Swansea City was the major highlight of the first round by knocking down Man Utd on the road. It wasn’t a complete surprise for me because I expected them to do some damage offensively as they really have some nice talent on the front!

They held Man Utd to just one goal but I think that it was more about United’s lack of offensive flow especially from the wings than exactly Swansea being a top defensive team.

My notes about them in that game didn’t change for this contest:

“The Welsh side made a decent pre-season and they look more dangerous on the front than exactly having a stronger defense. I expect them to struggle defensively early on the season as they lost some key defensive players in this offseason like Vorm, Ben Davis and more recently Chico Flores.”

One thing I liked about Burnley in their game vs. Chelsea was that they have some courage. They didn’t “park the bus” against one of the best EPL teams, they wanted to play a fair game and obviously, I expect them to have the same approach against this inferior class opponent.

This will be a fun game to watch, a open game and therefore, I expect both teams to score at least one goal.

Soccer Pick #5: Premier League - Arsenal @ Everton

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ -102 / 1.98 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

Arsenal's starting lineup won't feature a traditional striker as both Sonogo & Giroud were relegated to the bench. Wenger will try to control the game in the midfield and this is not a good start for a potential high scoring game. Arsenal plays a pivotal game vs. Besiktas in this midweek and so, I expect them to control the game by playing in a possession slow-tempo oriented football. 

MLB Free Premium Play 08/23

MLB Pick #1: 981 Baltimore Orioles @ 982 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs. K. Hendricks)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 981 Baltimore Orioles ML @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

BAL’s SP Bud Norris has been great lately w/ a nice run of 4 straight quality outings. Note that he faced some tough matchups in those starts like LAA, TOR & CWS – all dangerous lineups and still he looked pretty good.

His K% numbers have been excellent in this second half of season w/ 22.4% K% mark vs. 16.5% in this second half of season and this is good news for him because CHC lineup has been a “K machine” for quite some time – I have them ranked dead last (#30) in the league in L30 days w/ an abysmal 26.0% K% mark!

BAL will face K. Hendricks who has been pretty good as well. However his advanced numbers are screaming for some regression as his 1.66 ERA does not match his 3.54 FIP & 3.85 xFIP numbers!  BAL offense was shut down by J. Arrieta last night and they are looking to bounce back today – they are ranked #6 in L14 days, so I expect them to do some damage in here.