NBA Premium Play 12/01: Brooklyn Nets @ Miami Heat

NBA - 501 Brooklyn Nets @ 502 Miami Heat

Projected Line: Miami by 12 points

This is a terrible spot for Brooklyn, as they will play their 8th game in just 12 days! After tonight's game, the Nets will have two days off, so this is really a very tough spot for Brooklyn. Brook Lopez is still out with a foot injury and this is obviously great news for Miami's defense. Brooklyn had just 4.30% of volume in post up plays last night in Orlando and with Miami being #20 in defending post ups, Lopez's absence is good news for Miami, as Brooklyn is now focused on their perimeter game on offense. Brooklyn has been shooting well from the outside over the last two games, but I believe these were two rare good performances for them on this area. At Boston, Jerry Stackhouse had a great game out of nowhere and yesterday in Orlando, Gerald Wallace had a huge game, but I believe this was a fluke, as he isn't known for being a good outside shooter.

Brooklyn has been very effective on their cuts by being #7 in the league with 1.23 PPP, but Miami is a top team in defending this kind of plays by being #5 in the league, so I expect the Heat to be able to do a good defensive job against the Nets tonight. Miami had two poor games against Cleveland and a shorthanded Spurs, but now on a competitive game, I expect them to show up and to blowout the Nets that will be shorthanded on the frontcourt and on a very tough spot. I'm taking the Heat tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Miami Heat (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/30: Milwaukee Bucks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA - 717 Milwaukee Bucks @ 718 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Line: Milwaukee by 4 points

Milwaukee is coming from a home loss against the Knicks, where the starters were benched during the fourth quarter once again, but this time there was no late comeback for them. They will now play at Minnesota and they have a good matchup on this contest. The Wolves have been struggling on defending quick guards, as their roster is full of slow footed or inexperienced guards. These are obviously good news for Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. Milwaukee doesn't have a good perimeter defense neither, but Minnesota is on the bottom 3 in perimeter shooting in the league, while being dead last in 3pts with just 27.7%! 

Andrei Kirilenko has been Minnesota's best player this season and his absence tonight will be a huge problem for the Wolves. We all know that Minnesota is a top offensive rebounding team, but Milwaukee has a good interior defense and they are also one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league (they are #6). Kevin Love is also a game-time decision due to illness and with the Bucks having a good matchup tonight, I believe they will get a good road win tonight. I'm taking Milwaukee in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Milwaukee Bucks (pk) @ -110 / 1..91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 11/30: Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 715 Utah Jazz @ 716 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 12 points

Oklahoma City's offense has been unstoppable lately with 114.25, 127.60, 128.53, 118.14, 105.69, 122.95, 124.84 and 127.97 offensive rates over their last eight games! They are sharing the ball, Russell Westbrook isn't taking forced shots and he is helping the team in rotating the ball better than usual. The Thunder are shooting extremely well from the 3pts line and this will be a problem for Utah's defense, as Mo Williams will play tonight and Utah is a much worse defensive team with him on the floor. With Mo Williams on the floor, Utah is allowing their opponents to have a 110.6 offensive rate, while with Mo Williams out, they are just allowing 100.8! As I don't believe he will be at 100% physically tonight, he will get crushed by Russell Westbrook tonight. With Marvin Williams out with a concussion, Utah has no depth to defend Kevin Durant. Paul Millsap may play some minutes at the SF position, but he has no speed to defend Durant. So, I expect Utah's defense to heavily struggle tonight.

On the other side, Oklahoma City's defense has been playing very well, especially on protecting the paint, as they are #4 in defending post up plays, while allowing just 62% FG at the rim! Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins are good defenders and they will limit Utah's good offensive frontcourt tonight. This is a good spot for Oklahoma City, a team that has been playing very well at home this season, so I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 Oklahoma City Thunder (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/30: Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 713 Detroit Pistons @ 714 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: 193 points

Memphis is coming from two games against lowly teams, where they simply relaxed. Their offense was poor in those games, as they were a perimeter shooting team. But with their game tomorrow at San Antonio, we can expect the Grizzlies to be more aggressive tonight. In those two games against Cleveland and Toronto, they played good defense, but the Cavaliers had just Anderson Varejao as a threat and Toronto played without Andrea Bargnani, so neither team had any kind of threat down low. So, Memphis focused on defending the perimeter, where they are very strong.

This game against Detroit will bring them a completely different matchup, as they have Greg Monroe on the frontcourt. Detroit has been playing better due to their improved offense, especially with guards Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey playing better. They had 105.98, 106.64, 118.82 and 127.75 offensive rates on their last four games. The Pistons are coming from a mega blowout win over the Suns, they are confident and they have a good inside-out game, so they can bring some trouble to the Grizzlies' defense. 

However, Detroit's defense is still struggling and they are #30 in defending post up plays. They aren't good in their defensive rotations and Memphis' frontcourt will find the right spots to pass the ball tonight. I expect a good offensive game from Memphis in here, while the Pistons should also score their share of points tonight, so I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/30: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 711 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 712 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: Atlanta by 13 points

Atlanta struggled to beat the Bobcats at home on their last game, but that was due to the fact that Charlotte was simply insane with their outside shooting! The Hawks had an edge on boards and an excellent A/TO ratio of 28/9! Their problem was simply the bad outside shooting with just 12-32 3pts! The Hawks are now showing good ball movement and they are also shooting 73% FG at the rim on their last seven games. Now against the horrible interior defense of the Cavs, Atlanta will simply pound the Cavaliers down low tonight! 

Cleveland without Kyrie Irving is struggling offense and Jeremy Pargo had 5 turnovers against the poor defense of Phoenix on the team's last game. Anderson Varejao is the team's only consistently good player, but the Hawks interior defense has been the best of the league lately with 53% FG allowed at the rim over the last seven games. I expect a blowout win for Atlanta tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Atlanta Hawks (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/30: Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Bobcats

NBA - 703 Philadelphia 76ers @ 704 Charlotte Bobcats

Projected Line: Philadelphia by 8 points

Charlotte is coming from a road loss in Atlanta, where they struggled a lot on playing halfcourt offense. Atlanta closed well the paint and Charlotte struggled to create easy points opportunities. In fact, the Bobcats shot 11-20 FG at the rim and 2-4 FG from 3-9 feet! They were just competitive because they were able to shoot 12-24 3pts, with Ben Gordon being amazing with 7-10 3pts! Atlanta had an edge on boards and great ball movement, but they struggled on their perimeter shooting with 12-32 3pts!

The Bobcats are extremely dependent from what their backcourt does and in fact, Kemba Walker and Ramon Sessions are taking 28.7 shots per game and this high volume of production from their backcourt can be well limited by the Sixers' great backcourt defense. Philadelphia's interior defense hasn't been great, but it won't be well explored by Charlotte, who takes most of their shots from the perimeter, including frontcourt players like Byron Mullens!

Philadelphia will also have a tremendous size advantage on the backcourt. Jrue Holiday will dominate Kemba Walker in both ends of the floor, with the Bobcats' bad perimeter defense being exposed by the suddenly red hot outside shooting from Philadelphia, as they are shooting 65% 3pts over the last seven games! Philadelphia doesn't commit turnovers and this will only make the Bobcats' offensive job tonight even tougher. The Sixers are a terrible matchup for Charlotte and so, I expect Philadelphia to pick up an easy win tonight. I'm taking the Sixers tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Philadelphia 76ers (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA 11/29 Advanced Stats Numbers

San Antonio at Miami							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
SA	27	17	32	24	100		94.52	104.63	0.51	18.09	26.83	22.50
MIA	22	25	26	32	105			112.34	0.52	9.58	17.07	18.60
Denver at Golden State							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DEN	25	35	26	19	105		95.17	111.85	0.56	14.85	23.08	11.63
GS	30	21	27	28	106			109.86	0.51	13.69	22.73	22.62