MLB Free Premium Play 09/08

MLB Free Pick: 965 Kansas City Royals @ 966 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Guthrie vs. J. Verlander)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 966 Detroit Tigers ML @ -130 / 1.77 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

It’s a good thing that the Tigers are facing division leaders Royals today in this early contest, because they will take the game “seriously” and therefore, the potential letdown spot of playing @SNB yesterday and then early today will be dissipated in my opinion.

I’m fading once again KC’s SP Jeremy Guthrie after losing an “OVER” play on his last start vs. TEX. In that game, Guthrie managed to allow just 1 ER in 7 IP’s despite allowing 9 hits and striking out just one batter. He has been ultra inconsistent lately alternating good starts with some truly awful ones. In the L6 games he was solid against TEX twice and ARI… well, these two offenses are ranked #28 & #29 in the league in this second half season, so he took advantage of the fact that he enjoyed favorable matchups. Certainly, this won’t be the case today with the Tigers.

On the other end, we have DET’s SP Verlander on the mound… we can’t expect anything “special” from him as he is far from the pitcher he used to be. He is coming from a tough start vs. #2 offense in the league in CLE in which he allowed 6 ER’s in 6.2 IP’s. However note that he had a nice 7/1 K/BB ratio and actually, he had 21 K’s on his L3 starts - a good sign for him! He had some “personal stuff” going on in the internet in the last week… I expect him to be more focused today and therefore, I see some value w/ DET today.