MLB Premium Card 09/03

MLB Pick #4: 909 New York Mets @ 910 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. deGrom vs. T. Koehler)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 7 @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The first 2 games of this series were pure slugfests w/ 15 and 14 runs scored and we couldn’t be happier as we cashed our OVER play quite easily yesterday. However, for tonight I think that this will turn into a “Pitchers duel” and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here.

NYM’s SP Jacob deGrom has been consistently lately as he finished August w/ pretty underrated stats line of 3.42 ERA, 3.05 FIP & 3.07 xFIP! He already has faced MIA twice this season and was great in both starts w/ just one ER allowed in 14 innings!

On the other end, MIA’s SP Tom Koehler is coming from b2b decent starts on the road @COL & @ATL. This is a good sign for him due to his heavy struggles on the road this season because at home, Koehler has been excellent this season w/ 2.69 ERA + 3.28 FIP + 3.98 xFIP!

We are looking for two underrated young Pitchers that I expect to perform quite well lately and will be a tough matchup for these offenses.

MLB Pick #5 & #6: 921 Toronto Blue Jays @ 922 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: M. Stroman vs. C. Archer)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 921 Toronto Blue Jays ML @ +103 / 2.03 on Bookmaker

Pick: Under 7 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Detailed Write Ups:

I expect this contest to be like NYM/MIA game: a pitcher’s duel! Also, I’m taking the Blue Jays in here as long they are underdogs because I have this contest as a pure 50/50 game.

TOR’s SP Marcus Stroman struggled heavily lately but he bounced back pretty strong on his last start vs. BOS w/ 7.2 strong IP’s & a nice 6/1 K/BB ratio! His 1.96 FIP & 2.28 xFIP marks in that game were excellent! He had 6 days off for today’s matchup, so I expect him to be “fresh” and ready to go tonight.

On the other end, TB’s SP Chris Archer had an amazing stretch w/ 4 consecutive starts allowing just ER just to be pounded on his last start by BOS by allowing 7 ER’s in just 4 IP’s! I’ve checked all the advanced stats from him (speed of his pitches) and everything looked normal, so it was just an “off” day for him and obviously, I expect a bounce back game from Archer today.

MLB Pick #7: 927 Texas Rangers @ 928 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: N. Tepesch vs. J. Vargas)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 8 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

I just can’t trust on the two SP’s that going face each other and w/ the winds blowing out to left field at 10-15 MPH, this is a good spot for an “OVER” play.

KC’s SP Jason Vargas is coming from b2b starts in which he allowed more than 10 hits in both starts and “amazingly”, he managed to allow just 4 & 2 ER’s in those starts. One of those starts were against this same TEX lineup who despite all the offensive struggles through the season, they are still a decent offensive team vs. LHP’s: ranked #10 in the season & hitting .272 BA in L10 games vs. LHP!

On the other end, even though TEX’s SP Nick Tepesch has some decent numbers lately, his advanced numbers have been terrible! In his L3 starts, his FIP numbers were all worst than 4.50 FIP! KC was “surprised” by D. Holland yesterday, but this won’t happen today w/ Tepesch because this will be his 3rd start vs. KC this season.

MLB Pick #1: 903 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 904 St. Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: E. Volquez vs. S. Miller)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 903 Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

MLB Pick #2: 905 Washington Nationals @ 906 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Zimmermann vs. C. Frias)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 905 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 @ +115 / 2.15 on Betonline

MLB Pick #3: 915 Seattle Mariners @ 916 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: F. Hernandez vs. J. Lester)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 916 Oakland Athletics ML @ -122 / 1.82 on Betonline