MLB Premium Card 09/03

MLB Pick #1: 951 Philadelphia Phillies @ 952 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: K. Kendrick vs. M. Minor)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 7.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

Fortunately, ATL will not face Cole Hamels tonight, so I expect them to bounce back offensively after such a disaster offensive performance from yesterday.

They will face PHI’s SP Kyle Kendrick who was mediocre in the last month in every single aspect of the game: 5.22 ERA, 5.27 FIP, 4.60 xFIP, 10.2% K%, 6.3% BB% & 1.53 HR/9! He is on my fade list alert and so, I expect ATL’s offense to score some runs in here.

On the other side, note that we are dealing w/ a red hot PHI lineup that is ranked #2 in the league in L7 days! ATL’s SP Mike Minor is coming from 3 quality outings but he had some favorable matchups in those starts: NYM, CIN & OAK are all struggling offensively lately.

MLB Pick #2: 953 New York Mets @ 954 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Niese vs. B. Penny)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 8 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

NYM’s SP J. Niese doesn’t “look” the same since he returned from an injury. His 4.42 FIP mark in August was mediocre and I’ve been noticing that his zone% numbers lately are way below his season average numbers – a bad sign!

On the other end, I simply can’t trust in B. Penny! His 2 starts for MIA were subpar: bad P/IP numbers w/ 19.2 & 19.0. Poor command w/ 6/7 K/BB ratios and especially, he faced two really poor offensive teams as of late in ARI & CIN! I expect the Mets to score some runs against him tonight…

MLB Pick #3: 957 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 958 St. Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Locke vs. A. Wainwright)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over Team Total St. Louis Cardinals 4 Runs @ +105 / 2.05 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #4: 967 Boston Red Sox @ 968 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: J. Kelly vs. S. Greene)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 968 New York Yankees RL-1 @ -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

The Yankees are desperate for a good run and tonight’s pitching matchup is extremely favorable for them.

BOS’s SP Joe Kelly has been “OK” for the Red Sox w/ 4 competent starts and a truly awful one. He has a decent 3.86 ERA to show in those starts but his advanced numbers aren’t near of the same level: a subpar 5.38 FIP + 5.01 xFIP mark! He is due to some regression going forward and w/ Jacoby Ellsbury back in the lineup, I expect NYY to score some runs against him.

On the other end, NYY’s SP. Shane Greene has been a nice surprise for the team. He has been consistent lately and his performance @DET vs. a potent lineup was a great sign for him: 7.0 IP, 2 ER’s allowed & 8/1 K/BB ratio! I expect him to be decent tonight against BOS and therefore, I’m taking the Yankees tonight.

MLB Pick #5: 971 Los Angeles Angels @ 972 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: C. Wilson vs. B. Peacock)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 9 @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

LAA’s SP C.J. Wilson is coming from 3 quality starts in which he allowed 3, 1 & 1 ER’s but his pheripals didn’t improve at all: high pitch count numbers & poor K/BB ratios. In those 3 starts he couldn’t reach the 7th IP and had a pedestrian 10/10 K/BB.

However, I feel that he faced some favorable matchups as suddenly the A’s couldn’t hit while the Red Sox offense has been struggling for a long time. This can’t be said about this HOU lineup that is elite vs. LHP’s this season – I have them ranked #3 in the league! This is a bad matchup for him…

On the other end, I expect the Angel’s offense to produce some runs off B. Peacock. Like Wilson, Peacock faced OAK on his last start, and even though he managed to allow just 1 ER in 5.1 IP’s of work note that he walked 5 (!) batters! I don’t think that he will have such “luck” against this LAA potent lineup.