MLB Premium Card 07/07

MLB - 901 Atlanta Braves @ 902 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: M. Minor vs. D. Matsuzaka)

Play #1

ATL saw their winning streak ended yesterday w/ 1-3 loss vs. ARI, and I think that they are overrated going for this contest. Mike Minor is really struggling as of late… I have him w/ only one quality start in his L5 starts (vs. WAS) and according to my L30 days offensive numbers, only LAA offense could be considered a tough matchup for him. His 7.49 FIP mark in the month of June says it all about his ability as of late.

On the other end, Matsu is coming from b2b poor outings but note that in his last start (against this same ATL team) he ended w/ decent advanced stuff: 9.00 ERA vs. 3.51 FIP & 4.28 xFIP, he just some bad luck on balls in play w/ BABIP = .438 in that game. Still, Matsu has been more consistent than Minor w/ a 3.51 FIP mark in June.

My handicapped line for this contest is NYM-105, so I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 New York Mets ML (w/ D. Matsuzaka) @ +113 / 2.13 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 911 Miami Marlins @ 912 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: T. Koehler vs. C. Anderson)

Play #2

This is a rare contest in which the Marlins should be favored on the road. Their offense is red hot right now… I have them ranked #7 in L7 days and note that they hitting .270 or better in the L5 games! They will face Chase Anderson today who is a good fade material IMO. His K/BB ratios have been subpar lately… if we remove his 4/0 K/BB mark vs. MIL, he has a pedestrian 13/10 K/BB mark in 3 of his last 4 games = FADE!

On the other side, Tom Koehler is coming from 5 consecutive quality starts. I understand that he didn’t face any real powerhouse offenses on these starts w/ NYM being the top ranked team but slightly bellow average in my L30 PR offensive numbers. However, a 3.52 FIP / 3.67 xFIP / 24.6% K% advanced stats numbers in the month of June are a great sign for today. We have the best pitcher and the best offense working for the same side and obviously, I’m taking the Marlins in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 911 Miami Marlins ML (w/ T. Koehler) @ -103 / 1.97 on Betonline

MLB - 927 San Francisco Giants @ 928 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: R. Vogelsong vs. J. Chavez)

Play #3

We are getting the A’s in here a bit overrated as my fair line for them is a line about -130/-140 so there’s some value to work w/ SF IMO.

SF offense is dead last #30 in my L14 days PR offensive rankings but they finally showed some signs of life in L2 games by scoring 5 runs in each game (and winning them as well), so we have them w/ some confidence going for this contest.

Ryan Vogelsong has been pretty good lately w/ 2.51 FIP in the month of June, and especially, a nice 15/1 K/BB ration in his last 2 starts against the decent offenses of CIN & STL.

On the other end, Jesse Chavez’s subpar K/BB ratio numbers are well noticed: 5/4 K/BB vs. DET, 5/3 K/BB vs. MIA & 4/4 K/BB ratio against the Red Sox. He had 11 walks in the last 3 outings… Note that in the previous 7 starts he had a total of 11 walks! He may be a bit tired right now…

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 927 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ R. Vogelsong) @ +150 / 2.50 on 5 Dimes