MLB Premium Card 07/25

MLB - 915 Toronto Blue Jays @ 916 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs. H. Kuroda)

Play #2

Both teams are pretty confident going for this contest, as both won their L3 games.

However, I think that the Yankees have a fundamental pitching edge tonight that will make the difference.

TOR’s SP M. Buehrle is primed for a natural regression in this second half as his 2.89 ERA mark is not sustainable w/ advanced numbers of 4.51 SIERA, 3.69 FIP & 4.29 xFIP. Actually, this regression has begun b/c he had 4.64 FIP in June and 3.51 in this month vs. 3.29 & 3.09 in the first 2 months. He made 2 starts vs. NYY in June and once again, his advanced numbers were way worst vs. ERA:

Game Logs numbers:

ERA        FIP         xFIP

06/24    5.40       6.14       4.33

06/18    3.00       4.98       4.50

On the other end, Kuroda has been solid as usual. He is giving the Yankees the chance to win their games, and right now, the Yankees have been extremely “clutch” when it matters in their games.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 916 New York Yankees ML (w/ H. Kuroda) @ -133 / 1.75 on Bookmaker

MLB - 929 Miami Marlins @ 930 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: B. Hand vs. D. Keuchel)

Play #3

I’m taking the OVER in here as my Handicapped line for this contest is 9/9.5 totals runs…

Brad Hand has been pretty decent since he was promoted in July… he made 4 nice starts in which he allowed 2, 3, 0 and 3 ER’s, not bad! His K/BB numbers aren’t impressive, but he did a good job especially in L3 outings w/ grounders (54.5%, 50.0% & 52.2% GB% rates). However, I just can’t ignore the fact that he has faced 4 poor offensive teams vs. LHP’s:

SF #12
NYM #19
ARI #22
PHI #24

Well, SF isn’t a poor team vs. LHP’s this season, but they are still away from the level  that the Astros are showing vs. LHP’s: ranked #4 in the league! This is toughest challenge that B. Hand will face since he was promoted, and w/ a stats line of 4.86 ERA / 4.31 FIP / 4.77 xFIP, I’m not sure he will do well tonight.

On the other side, we have a struggling Dallas Keuchel pitching for the Astros. Keuchel’s 17/12 K/BB mark in L5 games is extremely subpar and lately, he has been also pretty hittable by allowing 12, 8, 13 and 9 hits! MIA is a decent offense vs. LH’s this season (ranked #12 OPS), so I expect them to do some damage.

Both Starting Pitchers will face some tough matchups today and therefore, I’m taking the OVER as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 8.5 (w/ B. Hand & D. Keuchel) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB - 903 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 904 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs. K. Kendrick)

Play #1

Wade Miley has been outstanding lately! His stats line in this month says it all: .194 BA / 2.20 FIP / 2.50 xFIP / 26.6% K% & 4.6% BB! Wow! Note that he has faced CHC, SF & ATL in his L3 starts and these 3 teams are pretty decent vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #5, #12 & #7, and still, Miley did pretty well against them! PHI offense is ranked just #23 and they are prone to be K’ed quite a lot (ranked #20 in the season w/ 21.1% K%), so I expect Miley to be decent tonight.

On the other end, K. Kendrick is clearly struggling and sooner or later, he will be demoted. He is coming from 3 consecutive awful starts and he will face an ARI offense that is batting pretty well in this second half of season: ranked #4 w/ .801 OPS! Note that despite facing two good SP’s in Porcello and Sanchezz, ARI has scored 5 runs in each contest.

We have a tremendous pitching edge for ARI in this contest, while we are catching them w/ “hot bats” right now.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ W. Miley) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker