Play #1
Baltimore is one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to force turnovers, so unless Detroit enters in complete kamikaze mode, the Lions won't be turning over the football tonight. However, the Ravens' defense has been quite decent with a -11.1% DVOA defense. With Reggie Bush still banged up, I believe Detroit's offense won't have a field day against a Baltimore defense that might not be an elite unit anymore, but it is still a decent unit.
On the other hand, Baltimore's offense has been poor lately with a negative offense DVOA in all their last six games: -15.3%, -42.5%, -25.9%, -20.7%, -20.4% and -24.3%! Their running game has been so poor this season that the banged up Detroit's secondary won't need to give a lot of attention to Baltimore's rushing game, especially because Detroit's DL is excellent when it comes to run blocking. Therefore, I don't see this game being a very high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 333/334 Under 50 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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