NBA Premium Card 12/15

NBA - 809 New Orleans Pelicans @ 810 Denver Nuggets

Play #2

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The Nuggets aren’t playing well for quite some time, especially on the offensive end. Their starting lineup has been constantly outplayed by their opponents while showing a poor offensive flow. If Lawson isn’t able to create some scoring chances for him or his teammates, then, the Nuggets starting lineup are drawing dead on offense because they can’t hit outside shots. Their interior defense has been subpar w/ Hickson & Faried, and after losing to the Jazz, the Nuggets’ Head Coach hinted that he could make a change in the starting lineup.... if he decides to shake some things up, I think that Mozgov will be the man promoted.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans keep winning despite playing without their best player. They defeated the Grizzlies in their last game in which I had a play w/ Under. MEM perimeter defense has been awful all season long but w/ Tony Allen returning to the lineup, I was expecting a better defensive performance from the Grizzlies that simply didn’t happen, as Allen looked way out of sync / 100% healthy. New Orleans shot 51.3% from the field but note that their assist/rate% was subpar – only 22 of their 39 FGM were assisted (56%).

Surprisingly, both teams are playing super slow pace in the last games and I think that tonight’s game will be slower than most people expect and therefore this 205-points line is way overrated and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here as my Double Dime Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 809/810 Under 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 811 Golden State Warriors @ 812 Phoenix Suns

Play #3

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Both teams are coming from some terrific offensive performances in which both scored +110 points. However, today’s matchup between GSW & PHX won’t favor a high scoring affair and because we are dealing with a shootout line, we are getting some tremendous value w/ Under.

First of all, note that the Suns defense is predicated to defend the 3-pts line, and they have been successfully doing that - they are the best 3pts defensive team in the league allowing just 32.3% to their opponents! The best example is to look for PHX perimeter 3pts D @HOU a couple of days ago… HOU against GSW this last Friday was able to shoot 12-29 41.4% behind the line but against PHX they were held to just 9-31 3pts (29%)! GSW is almost 100% dependant of Curry and Klay Thompson and tonight both will have a tough matchup vs. Bledsoe & Dragic.

The Suns crushed the Kings bad perimeter defense that is ranked #29 w/ 39.3% but GSW is a decent 3pts defensive team (ranked #12). The black hole of the Warriors defense has been David Lee, but today I think that he won’t be exposed defensively as the Suns PF’s are basically stretch-four players (Frye and the Morris brothers) that like to shoot from the outside, so Lee won’t be abused down low.

With both defenses having the edge vs. offenses, we are dealing with an inflated number and bad perception between the way these two teams plays and that’s why I’m taking the Under as my Triple Dime Play.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 811/812 Under 209.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker