NBA Premium Card 12/14

NBA - 511 Toronto Raptors @ 512 Chicago Bulls

Play #5

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Now that Rudy Gay is gone, the Raptors are playing a more fluid offensive style. Less ISO-ball, more Pick n rolls and more transition plays were quite evident in L3 games in which they scored 106, 103 and 108 points. I understand that scoring 108 points against the 76ers isn’t exactly a great achievement, but TOR is really playing better basketball on the offensive end while defensively there is a lot of work to do.

The Bulls were able to put an end on their 3-game losing streak by beating the Bucks w/ buzzer shot. Noah destroyed the Bucks frontcourt w/ 10-15 FG, 21 points, 18 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and 3 blocks, wow! The problem for the Bulls has been the subpar performance of their backcourt especially with Deng injured. Fortunately, Butler returned last game and he was decent while Dunleavy was finally efficient. If Deng plays today, the Bulls could have some edge on the backcourt against the Raptors. T. Ross is now starting, Vasquez is their primary backup and TOR will struggle today on the perimeter.

In the first h2h, the Bulls (already without D. Rose) didn’t have any problem to score 96 points while TOR struggled to shoot the ball – just 35.4% FG w/ 5-21 3pts. The game was played in the Rudy Gay –era, so I expect TOR to improve offensively today vs. last h2h so I expect a relatively high scoring game.

NOTE: Deng is in the lineup so I'm taking the Over as my Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 186.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 503 Los Angeles Clippers @ 504 Washington Wizards

Play #1

This play would have been a Top Play if Nene was listed probable to play, however he’s doubtful so I’m not counting him to be on the court tonight.

The Clippers lost their last game @Brooklyn and that wasn’t a surprise at all for me as I had one of my biggest plays of the season w/ Nets. They were shorthanded; they were playing in 2nd night of a b2b spot and the Nets were a tough matchup for them due to their size on the front.

The Clippers are clearly struggling to hit their outside shots despite creating good looks. They went 6-24 3pts @BKN and they are now 39-142 3pts on this road trip – a putrid 27.5% mark! Due to these struggles, they need badly to score down low in order to be competitive. They scored only 28 points in the paint @BKN, but today I expect them to explore the bad WAS interior defense. Gortat isn’t a good defensive player, Booker is undersized and the Wizards are allowing +60% FG at the rim this season. LAC will have a decent offensive game against the Wizards.

The Wizards lost yesterday @ATL in OT but I expect them to be aggressive today – they are a good home team! John Wall didn’t have a good offensive game last night and WAS went only 4-14 3pts. Their superior athleticism vs. LAC backcourt will work favorably for them IMO while both teams will push the tempo to score in transition – both teams are top 10 in fast break points per game (WAS #8 w/ 16.4 ppg & LAC #9 w/ 15.9). Therefore I’m taking the OVER in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 515 San Antonio Spurs @ 516 Utah Jazz

Play #2

This is a terrible physical spot for the Spurs, so as usual I expect Popovich to rest some of their old guys. This will be their 4th game in 5days, they had a tight game against the Wolves and to make things even worse, they will play @Utah (altitude), there’s no way Pop will take any chances tonight.

Because yesterday’s game was super competitive, Duncan logged 35min, Parker 36min, Leonard 34min and even Manu Ginobili played the entire 4th quarter! Besides that, the Spurs are a bit shorthanded on the frontcourt with Splitter and Aron Baynes both doubtful for tonight.

Obviously this isn’t enough for me to have an “auto fade play” w/ the Spurs tonight. The key factor is that the Jazz is actually playing decent basketball lately. My Play w/ them last night (UTA+10.5 @DEN) was an easy winner play and UTA has now won 5 of their last 10 games.

They have defeated CHI, PHX, HOU, SAC & DEN – not exactly scrub teams! Derrick Favors can have a big game tonight if Duncan doesn’t play because the Spurs are really thin on the front. Asking the Spurs to crush the Jazz on the road in this spot against an improved and confident Jazz team is IMO too much for them so I think we have some nice edge w/ Underdog in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 516 Utah Jazz (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 509 Portland Trail Blazers @ 510 Philadelphia 76ers

Play #3

I have a small lean on the 76ers tonight (full game) but because this is a bad spot for them (b2b w/ 3 games in 4 nights) I rather prefer playing them in the first half as the most likely scenario is the Blazers having a strong 2nd half.

First of all, despite being “rested”, I don’t like the spot that the Blazers is going for this contest. This is the first game of their road trip, so they made a huge trip POR -> PHI, also, they are coming from a huge effort last game against the Rockets at home! Against the lowly 76ers, I don’t expect the Blazers to be 100% focused, especially early on the game.

The 76ers are struggling to hit their outside shots due to their evident lack of talent, but they can be a dangerous offensive team in transition & attacking the rim. The Blazers have been a poor interior defensive team all season; they are ranked #26 in points in the paint allowed w/ 45.6 ppg so the 76ers will have a good matchup in this particular area. Also, the potential laziness of the Blazers defense will be noticed on transition (lack) defense.

The 76ers defense is allowing almost 70% FG at the rim L10 games but the Blazers are mainly a jump shooting team so they won’t totally explore PHI’s biggest weakness early on the game. Eventually they will adjust @ half time and also take advantage of the tired legs of PHI players but again, I’m taking the 76ers just to be competitive in the first half!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Philadelphia 76ers (+6.5) FIRST HALF @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

NBA - 501 Los Angeles Lakers @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #4

It might strange to say it, but right now, the Bobcats are better than the Lakers and I expect them to beat the Lakers as just a natural win for them.

CHA’s defense is really good and their Head Coach is doing a great job. Their biggest weakness is closing out on shooters @perimeter and in theory, the Lakers will have a nice edge in this department. However, the Lakers are struggling right now offensively w/ the addition of Kobe Bryant and (especially) without their 3 Point Guards. Last night, the Lakers struggled to hit 3pts by shooting just 7-25 but note that in the 2 previous games (all w/ Kobe on the team) they went 9-28 and 5-19 – not good! Kobe Bryant is playing PG…enough said!

If the Bobcats had some decent offense, they would be a real tough team to beat. However I think that today they will enjoy a rare huge matchup advantage against the Lakers. CHA’s offensive scheme is predicated to attack the rim w/ their athletic guards: Walker, Henderson and Sessions. They go a lot to the FT line because of this so it’s important for us to see if the Lakers will be able to stop CHA guards to do this….they won’t!  In L3 games, LAL paint defense has been just awful as they have allowed 62, 56 & 56 pts in the paint! Do you really think Kobe Bryant will be able (or focused) in slowing down Kemba Walker’s dribble penetration moves? If yes, think again!

I’m taking the Bobcats tonight as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Charlotte Bobcats (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker