Thursday, April 5, 2012

NBA Premium Play 04/04: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat


NBA - 709 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 710 Miami Heat

Projected line: 202 points

Without Wade, Miami had an offensive bounce back against Philadelphia. They struggled from the outside with 3-13 3pts, but they had a good variety of plays and were aggressive with 26-32 FT. They will also be aggressive today, as this is a revenge game for them. With Turiaf playing as the team's center, the defense is clearly suffering from that, with Philadelphia having a good day in attacking the rim in Miami's last game. Lebron will come confident to this game, as he is coming from a season high yesterday. 

In the first game of the series, the Thunder had a great offensive game with their big men dominating the boards and the paint, while Westbrook curiously struggled. What may cause problems to Miami is that Oklahoma City had 9-12 FG in cuts and 7-12 FG in transition and if Philadelphia had a good game yesterday on cuts, then the Thunder are very likely to have that as well, with Turiaf playing as the team's center. 

I believe the big difference from the first game of the series will come from Miami, as 14 FTA and 21 TO won't happen again today! Miami will have an attacking mindset, as they had just 4-7 FG in transition in the first game. Miami's edge in transition plays will be evident today. Oklahoma City is coming from a loss against Memphis in an inevitable letdown game after such a amount of great performances in a row full of energy. I believe both teams will show great energy on offense today and therefore, I'll take the Over on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 197,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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