Soccer Premium Card 09/29

Soccer Pick #1 & #2: Stoke City vs. Newcastle United

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Stoke City (-0.25) @ -115 / 1.87 on SBOBet (OR -116 / 1.86 on Betonline)

Pick: Over 2.25 Goals @ -103 / 1.97 on SBOBet (OR -109 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes))

Detailed Write Up:

Newcastle’s situation is a mess, here some news from them:

“On Friday night, the billionaire club owner’s lawyers, insisted those comments, which were made late on Thursday night in a London bar, were a joke and intended to be tongue in cheek.

But the strength of the remarks will still shock Newcastle fans, whose team are bottom of the Premier League.

“He’s got one more game,” Ashley said. “If we lose against Stoke on Monday night then he’s gone. I have had enough.”

Making a throat-cutting gesture, Ashley added: “Dead. Finished. Over. One more game then that’s it. What would you do? I have spent a lot of money on that club, it’s cost me a lot. I won’t put up with it any more. Honestly, answer me, what would you do? One more loss and he’s gone, he’s over, finished.””

Obviously, these "reports" were denied but this is a good image of what is happening w/ Newcastle lately!

In this contest we are dealing w/ two teams that aren't scoring goals early on the season but they are creating chances! I have Newcastle ranked #5 in total shots w/ 15.0 per game & Stoke City ranked #6 w/ 14.6 shots/game! Obviously, both teams haven’t been efficient but sooner or later the goals will appear. I have discussed this Stoke City a few times saying that they struggle against packed defenses because they lack the proper talent on the midfield to create solid build up chances. That’s why they have been poor at home (losses vs. Aston Villa & Leicester) – they have the urgency to attack but their opponents are happy in sitting down and make some counter attacks. Well, this is not the mantra of Newcastle for today… they will be looking to get a win and more importantly, their defensive organization is awful while Stoke City is a great defensive team – ranked #1 in the league in avoiding shots on target per game.

I think that we should be dealing w/ Stoke City -0.5 line @ +100 / 2.00 odds while my handicapped totals line = 2.5 goals!

NFL Premium Card 09/29

NFL Pick #1 & #2: 273 New England Patriots @ 274 Kansas City Chiefs

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 274 Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes

Pick: Under 47.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write up:

I expect this contest to be a tight game w/ both defenses having a considerable edge in the matchups. NE offense is not “clicking” for several reasons: bad OL, Gronk is not healthy and Brady looks a bit “shaky. KC defense will be a tough matchup for them due to pressure they will make on the front, they are ranked #3 in the league in Pass Protection – adj. sack rate w/ 8.3%! KC’s defense has been poor vs. run but NE’s offensive running game is struggling as well – ranked #20 in the league. Note that against OAK last week, NE ran for 76 yds w/ 32 carries & 2.4 yds/avg! With yesterday’s game vs. MIA, OAK has now allowed 212, 188 & 157 rushing yards on the other 3 games! That’s not a good sign for NE's rushing unit!

On the other end, we have KC’s Jamal Charles returning to action and we all know how important he is for KC! KC will try to dictate the tempo of the game, keep the ball possession and do damage on the ground. NE’s defense has been by far their biggest unit and therefore, I also think that in this matchup the defensive side will prevail.

My fair line in here is KC PK line & 44 points and that’s why I’m taking KC + UNDER as my plays!

NFL Premium Card 09/28

NFL Pick #1: 257 Tennessee Titans @ 258 Indianapolis Colts
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 257 Tennessee Titans (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Soccer Premium Card 09/27

Soccer Pick #1: Hull City vs. Manchester City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Manchester City (-0.75) @ -133 / 1.75 on SBOBet (OR -140 / 1.71 on Pinnacle Sports)

Detailed Write Up:

I’ve decided to release this play early as Man City will be one of the “public plays” of the round and right now, we can get this AH -0.75 @ decent prices of -130’s / 1.70’s.

Man City “needs” this contest. They are coming from 4 consecutive games in which they failed to win: 0-1 home loss vs. Stoke City, 2-2 draw @Arsenal, 0-1 loss @Bayern Munchen for the Champions League and 1-1 draw vs. Chelsea in this weekend, curiously we had plays in all those games without losing any of them (Stoke+2, Man City PK @Arsenal, Man City +1 @Bayern & Under 2.75 Goals vs. Chelsea)

While they “dominated” the game vs. Chelsea in this past round, it was a tough spot for them w/ 3 huge games in the span of just a week (Arsenal, Bayern & Chelsea). To make matters worse, they played w/ 10 men since the 66th minute w/ Zabaleta being sent off. It was indeed a busy week for them! For this round, I expect Pellegrini to rotate his squad against Sheffield Wednesday  in tomorrow's Capital One Cup fixture and therefore, we should be dealing w/ a pure week of preparation going forward for this contest. W/ Man City 100% focused, I don’t think that Hull City will be able to hang around w/ them!

Last season, Hull City had a decent defensive organization but they are really struggling in this area early on the season: they have allowed 2 goals/game in L3 contests and teams are averaging 18.2 shots/game against them - #2 worst mark in the league! This is a bad sign because they have faced so far QPR, Stoke City, Aston Villa, West Ham & Newcastle and none of these teams are powerhouse teams!

I had a play w/ them in the previous round that we cashed partially (+0.25 @ Hull City) as I expect them to take advantage of Newcastle’s shaky condition. While they got one point, they were outplayed by Newcastle who had 63% ball possession, attempted 25 total shots with 19 of them via build up plays! Who can’t allow so many chances to the opponents! It worked against Newcastle but Man City is a completely different “beast”!

Offensively, Hull City is a fragile team… all my rankings have them outside of the top13 and I expect Man City’s defense to handle them quite easily.

I expect Man City to win this contest and therefore, I’m taking them -0.75 AH in here!

Soccer Pick #2: Chelsea vs. Aston Villa

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 3 Goals @ -116 / 1.86 on SBOBet (OR -118 / 1.85 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up: 

I expect this contest to be a tight tactical battle due Villa’s good defensive organization. We cashed w/ Arsenal last week against them but truth be told, several Villa’s players were hit by a virus prior to the game and it looked clearly that they lacked their usual defensive aggressive pressure:

"Ashley Westwood was sick in the warm-up, Nathan Baker, Darren Bent and Andi Weimann were at half-time. We were really struggling. It's not an excuse but it's a fact. We could have been better defensively but we weren't at 100 per cent."

Arsenal didn’t have any pity and scored three quick goals in the first half to seal the deal. For today, I expect Villa’s to be more in-form physically and be a tough matchup for Chelsea. Villa’s has been a great defensive team closing the center of the field and this bodes well for them b/c Chelsea is the #1 team in the EPL attacking through the middle!

On the other end, Villa is the worst team in the league in total shots & shots on target per game… they will be once again without a pure striker on the front and therefore, this is a perfect scenario for a clean sheet performance from Chelsea.

Soccer Pick #3: Crystal Palace - Leicester

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ -108 / 1.92 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -109 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer Pick #4: Southampton - QPR

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: QPR (+1.25) @ -132 / 1.76 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -133 / 1.75 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer Pick #4: Arsenal vs. Tottenham

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Arsenal (-0.5) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 09/25

For today, we have one NFL play on the card and I’ve already released one early play – Single Dime Play! We dominated NBA regular season, MLB regular season and we cashed 57% of our NFL plays last season. We started this current season hitting a subpar 50% mark in the first 2 weeks and we went 4-1 ATS last Sunday to put us in the profit zone for the season!

MLB Regular Season Announcement:

I’ve made the decision to end my work in the MLB regular season (note that the reg. season ends this Sunday). These last 2 days weren’t good and that’s part of this business (we lost 3 plays yesterday by one run each), but the biggest problem for me is to deal w/ daily lineups. Teams are now using young guys preparing them for the future and its real tough for me to evaluate them and factor them in my lines. Yesterday I had to release late the final update just to confirm the starting lineups and this kind of process isn’t worth it my opinion w/ such few days to handicap. I'll be back in the MLB playoffs...

My Final Regular Season Numbers:
MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 191-163 ATS | +66.2 units
MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 191-163 ATS | +23.1 units

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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MLB Regular Season 2014 Final Numbers

Today, I’ve made the decision to end my work in the MLB regular season (note that the reg. season ends this Sunday). These last 2 days weren’t good and that’s part of this business (we lost 3 plays yesterday by one run each), but the biggest problem for me is to deal w/ daily lineups. Teams are now using young guys preparing them for the future and its real tough for me to evaluate them and factor them in my lines. Yesterday I had to release late the final update just to confirm the starting lineups and this kind of process isn’t worth it my opinion w/ such few days to handicap. I'll be back in the MLB playoffs...

My Final Regular Season Numbers:

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 191-163 ATS | +66.2 units
MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 191-163 ATS | +23.1 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here) 

We will now focus in the NFL & Soccer while the NBA is just around the corner!!!

MLB Premium Card 09/23

MLB Pick #1: 925 Houston Astros @ 926 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: B. Oberholtzer vs. N. Martinez )

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick:  925 Houston Astros ML @ -104 / 1.96 on Betonline