Daily Message 08/21

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 116-100 ATS | +37.2 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 116-100 ATS | +13.4 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 4-5 ATS | -6.9 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 4-5 ATS | -3.1 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Oakland RL-1.5 LOSS

Arizona RL+1.5 WIN

Detroit ML WIN

Colorado 1st 5 IP's LOSS

Yesterday's Soccer Recap Plays:

Over Porto/Lille 2 LOSS

Daily Message: 

We ended last night w/ an almost insignificant marginal profit in the MLB despite going 2-2 ATS in our plays, because we cashed a nice underdog play w/ Detroit Tigers. I made the ultimate decision to play COL in the first 5 IP’s instead of the traditional ML play. The key factors for such decision: I was expecting D. Duff to have a letdown and KC has a great bullpen, so the 1st Half play looked better and Duff was pounded… in the 6th inning, damn!

We are now 81-61 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +19.6 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +50.9 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +101 / 2.01, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

We lost our Soccer Play yesterday w/ OVER 2 Goals Porto/Lille. Overall it was a disappointing game and we really didn’t have many chances to cash the play. For some reason, Lille showed way too many respect to Porto, they didn’t press and it looked like they were satisfied w/ a potential scoreless draw. Only after Porto scored their goal, Lille made 2 tactical changes inserting Marcos Lopes & Ryan Mendes and they were more dangerous, but it was too late. Porto was just decent, but they deserved to win the game.

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 08/20

MLB Pick #2: 903 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 904 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Cahill vs. T. Roark)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 903 Arizona Diamondbacks RL+1.5 @ -130 / 1.77 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

We won easily w/ WAS last night as S. Strasburg completely “outpitched” C. Anderson. However, for this contest, I expect the Diamondbacks to be super competitive and therefore, at this current price, we are getting some value w/ them.

Trevor Cahill has been decent for quite some time and we cashed a nice underdog play on his last start @MIA, as he allowed just 2 ER’s in 6.2 IP’s of work. His 2nd half season numbers are excellent w/ 2.88 FIP + 3.36 xFIP!

Tanner Roark had some problems on his last start vs. PIT, and his command has not been the same lately w/ 8 walks in his L4 starts. He is coming from b2b starts in which he threw +105 pitches and had 4 days off for this matchup, so this is a potential letdown.

MLB Pick #3: 913 Detroit Tigers @ 914 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: R. Porcello vs. J. Odorizzi)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 913 Detroit Tigers ML @ +111 / 2.11 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

I think we have some edge w/ DET in this contest being underdogs against the Rays. Rick Porcello struggled on his last start vs. SEA, but I just can’t ignore the fact that he had to pitch 2 IP’s @TOR coming off the bullpen in the 19th marathon game w/ just 2 days off. This potential changed his usual routine and obviously, he struggled mightily in that game. Porcello has been pretty consistent in this second half of season and I expect him to bounce back tonight.

On the other end, Odorizzi has been consistent as well although he has some occasional bad games. I expect him to have a letdown in here as he is coming from 2 quality outings but those were against struggling offenses – TEX is ranked #30 offense in L14 days & CHC #25! DET is a different beast! My fair line in this contest is a pure 50/50 and so, I’m taking DET as my play.

MLB Pick #4: 929 Kansas City Royals @ 930 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: D. Duffy vs. J. De La Rosa)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 930 Colorado Rockies FIRST 5 Innings ML @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

Danny Duffy is primed for a regression sooner or later w/ 2.60 ERA vs. 3.80 FIP & 4.54 xFIP advanced numbers. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher w/ 47.8% FB% rate and so, pitching at Coors Field is a not the ideal place for him against COL offense that is ranked #5 vs. LHP’s!

On the other end, we have Jorge De La Rosa who has been great at home for some reason. We cashed w/ him on his last home start vs. CIN and I expect him to be decent once again at home.

MLB Free Premium Play 08/20

MLB Pick #1: 927 New York Mets @ 928 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: Z. Wheeler vs. J. Samardzija)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 928 Oakland Athletics RL-1.5 @ +115 / 2.15 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

We cashed w/ OAK RL last night and for this early contest, I’m riding them once again, as we have a substantial pitching edge working for OAK IMO.

I’ve faded NYM’s SP Zach Wheeler on his last start with no success against the Cubs. He held the Cubs to 2 runs in 6.2 IP’s of work, but note that he struggled (once again) w/ his command by walking 4 batters - his 13.8% BB% rate in this month is just awful! His 10 K’s were not a surprise at all as after all, CHC has been a “K” machine lately by being ranked dead last #30 in the league in K%.

This could be different against this patient OAK lineup…Here are some notes of my yesterday's play:

“Well, this bodes well for OAK’s offense because they are ranked #3 in BB% this season w/ 9.1% & ranked #1 in K% w/ just 15.9% K% mark! They are super patient and they will put a lot of pressure on Gee tonight. Gee also struggles against LH batters w/ 5.66 FIP & 4.77 xFIP, and OAK will load their lineup w/ Left-Handed batters!”

Curiously, Zach Wheeler also struggles a bit vs. LH batters this season w/ .272 BA + .347 wOBA + 4.19 FIP + 4.24 xFIP stats line. No wonder he was crushed by the A’s in a late June start in which he allowed 6 ER’s in just 2 innings. Wheeler threw a whopping 120 pitches on his last start and had just 4 days off for this matchup = FADE SPOT!

On the other end, Jedd Samardzija has been pretty solid for OAK. He has allowed the red-hot KC lineup to 3 ER’s in 6.1 IP’s while having a decent 5/0 K/BB ratio. He has 3.09 FIP + 3.45 xFIP numbers in this month of August, and against this NYM lineup, I expect him to remain decent for OAK.

Champions League Free Premium Play 08/20: FC Porto @ Lille

Soccer Pick #1: Champions League - Porto @ Lille

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 2 Goals @ +102 / 2.02 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write up:

The 1st leg of the Champions League qualification is always tricky as there is few information about the teams and most of all, we are coming off a World Cup and so, the “top teams” tend to need more time to mesh together. For this contest, I think that we are dealing w/ an underrated totals line! I was expecting to see the totals line to be around 2.25 goals and right now, we can get O2 Goals @ plus money.

The Portuguese side has a new coach and basically a “new” team as well for this season w/ innumerous new signings. Their coach Julen Lopetegui wants to play a free-floating offensive style while pressing high on the pitch. Right now, in my opinion, their attack is way advanced vs. their defense. They have some great individual talent on the front w/ Jackson Martinez, Yacine Brahimi and Ricardo Quaresma, but on the defensive side, I don’t think that they have a similar quality. Their defensive midfielder is a 17-years old teenager who scored one goal in his debut in this weekend, but he just can’t “offer” the same defensive quality as Fernando offered in the past and is now playing for Manchester City.

Lille has some great speed on the front w/ both Kalou and Origi! With Porto expected high pressure on the pitch, I expect them to concede some space on the back that will be explored by the French send w/ some quick counter attack moves.

Both teams have the proper edge to score goals in this contest and therefore, I’m taking the “Over” 2 goals for this current price.

Daily Message 08/20

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 114-98 ATS | +37.0 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 114-98 ATS | +13.4 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 4-4 ATS | -3.9 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 1-1 ATS | -2.1 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Pittsburgh ML LOSS

Washington RL-1.5 WIN

Seattle RL-1.5 WIN

Oakland RL-1.5 WIN

Parlay WAS x SEA x OAK ML's WIN

Daily Message: 

After having a couple of rough days, we bounced back strong in these last days. We are coming from a nice card yesterday in which we went 4-1 ATS w/ a nice parlay play with +235 / 3.35 odds & 11-4 ATS in L4 days.

We are now 79-59 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +19.5 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +50.8 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +101 / 2.01, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

For today, we have the Champions League qualification round (1st leg) and I’m releasing a FREE Premium Play – game starts @2:45PM EST!

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 08/19

MLB Pick #1: 951 Atlanta Braves @ 952 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: A. Harang vs. F. Liriano)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 952 Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ -145 / 1.69 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The Pirates yesterday the first game of the series and I expect them to bounce back tonight in a favorable matchup for them.

ATL’s SP A. Harang has been struggling for a while. In his L4 starts, he had FIP numbers all worst than 4.00 and his control has been terrible as of late as well – I have him w/ 12.5% K% vs. 9.4% BB% in this second half of season. PIT’s offense has been one of the best in this second half of season, particularly against RHP’s and they will have Andrew McCutchen back in the lineup tonight.

On the other end, PIT’s SP Francisco Liriano is coming from a decent start vs. DET. I had a play against him because he was facing a top3 offense vs. LHP’s and DET had Max Scherzer on the mound, but still, he was pretty good w/ 2 ER’s allowed in 6IP’s & 9K’s! Liriano has an insane 29.2% K% rate in this second half season and this bodes well against ATL’s K’ prone lineup even though they are a good offense vs. LHP’s this season.

We have a great pitching mismatch favoring PIT IMO, while w/ McCutchen back, PIT is also a top offensive team vs. RHP’s and therefore, I’m taking them tonight.

MLB Pick #2: 953 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 954 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: C. Anderson vs. S. Strasburg)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 954 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

Chase Anderson has been decent lately but I think that he is primed for a letdown tonight! He is coming from throwing b2b outings +100 pitches, actually, he threw a season high 109 pitches on his last start vs. MIA and had “just” 4 days off for this contest… this is not a good combination for him IMO.

On the other end, Stephen Strasburg apart from having here and there a truly awful start, he is dominating teams right now. After falling apart against ATL by allowing 7 ER’s      in just 5IP’s, he bounced back and dominated the Mets in his last start w/ 7 scoreless innings and a nice 8/2 K/BB ratio to show. I have ARI offense being ranked #25 in L14 days & #29 in L7 days, so I expect him to keep dominating tonight.

Daily Message 08/18

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 109-97 ATS | +22.3 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 109-97 ATS | +8.5 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 4-4 ATS | -3.9 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 1-1 ATS | -2.1 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Chicago Cubs ML WIN

Over St. Louis TT 4 WIN

Cleveland ML Double Dime LOSS

LA Dodgers Double Dime LOSS

Yesterday's Soccer Recap Plays:

Liverpool -1.25 Half LOSS

Daily Message: 

The English Premier League has finally arrived, and we have one more game left to handicap for today w/ Burnley receiving Chelsea @3PM EST. Tomorrow and this Wednesday, we have the qualification round for the Champions League, so the soccer is here to stay. We have also 8 MLB games to work... I'm yet to release any play for today.

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter