MLB Premium Card 09/06

MLB Pick #1: 965 Baltimore Orioles @ 966 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: K. Gausman vs. D. Smyly)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 965 Baltimore Orioles ML @ +130 / 2.30 on Bookmaker

MLB Pick #2: 951 Philadelphia Phillies @ 952 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: A. Burnett vs. T. Roark)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 951 Philadelphia Phillies ML @ +159 / 2.59 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 09/06

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 153-127 ATS | +64.8 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 153-127 ATS | +21.9 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Miami ML WIN

NY Mets ML WIN

Milwaukee ML WIN

Colorado RL-1 WIN

San Francisco ML WIN

Daily Message: 

We established a new season high of profits for the season in the MLB after sweeping 5-0 ATS the board last night. It was the second consecutive perfect card (7-0 ATS L7 plays). After a small stretch of days in which we suffered some bad beats, we cruised last night winning all our plays by some comfortable margin.

We are now 118-88 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +28.1 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +78.6 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +100 / 2.00, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

The regular season ends only @ the end of the month, so there are still plenty of opportunities for us to cash in the MLB. 

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 09/05

MLB Pick #1: 905 Atlanta Braves @ 906 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: A. Harang vs. J. Cosart)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 906 Miami Marlins ML @ -118 / 1.85 on Bookmaker

MLB Pick #2: 907 New York Mets @ 908 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: B. Colon vs. A. Simon)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 907 New York Mets ML @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

Daily Message 09/05

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 148-127 ATS | +48.5 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 148-127 ATS | +16.5 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Detroit ML WIN

Toronto ML WIN

Yesterday's NFL Recap Plays:

Green Bay (+6) LOSS

Daily Message: 

We are coming from an overall profitable card last night by going 2-1 ATS in our plays. We swept the MLB w/ 2-0 including a nice underdog play w/ TOR but we lost our first NFL play of the season w/ GB.

We are now 113-88 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +22.7 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +62.3 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +100 / 2.00, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

For tonight, we have the usual big MLB Friday Card, let’s do it!

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 09/04

MLB Pick #1: 957 Detroit Tigers @ 958 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs. T. Bauer)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 957 Detroit Tigers ML @ -123 / 1.81 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

DET’s SP Max Scherzer apparently is struggling a little bit lately by allowing 5, 3 & 4 ER’s on his L3 starts. However, a close look on his advanced numbers tells us that he was just “unlucky” on those starts because a 24/4 K/BB ratio is something special. Also, his “FIP” numbers were way better vs. ERA, the speed of his pitches was normal so, I expect him to bounce back tonight. CLE’s lineup is not an easy matchup for him but his L2 starts against them were excellent w/ 2 & 1 ER’s allowed.

On the other end, I’m fading CLE’s SP Trevor Bauer tonight. He is coming from b2b starts in which he threw +105’s pitches and he had “just” 4 off days going for tonight’s matchup - not a good spot for him IMO.

His K numbers have been impressive lately w/ 23.3% K% in the month of August, but he also has been “wild” w/ a subpar 13.3% BB% rate! Putting base runners on board against this DET lineup is a bad idea especially because DET is elite in avoiding being K’ed. This is going to be his 4th start against DET, so DET’s batters already know him pretty well!

With a pitching edge favoring the Tigers, I’m taking them in here @ this short price.

MLB Pick #2: 959 Toronto Blue Jays @ 960 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs. J. Odorizzi)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 959 Toronto Blue Jays ML @ +132 / 2.32 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

We cashed a nice ticket w/ TOR and I think that we are getting some value once again w/ the Blue Jays in here.

TB’s SP Jake Odorizzi is enjoying a solid season, but he is clearly struggling lately in my opinion even though he is coming from a good start vs. BOS. His 4.11 FIP & 4.15 xFIP numbers in the month of August aren’t exactly exciting numbers. Fangraphs.com published an article some weeks ago noticing that his fastball avg. speed is decreasing lately. I’ve checked his L3 starts numbers and indeed all of them were below his season avg of 90.3 MPH! FADE ALERT!

On the other end, we all know that TOR’s SP Mark Buehrle can’t dominate on the mound, but he has been consistent lately while giving his team a chance to win the games. His L4 FIP numbers were impeccable w/ 2.29, 2.97, 2.00 & 0.73! TB is struggling lately to hit vs. LHP’s w/ just .153 BA in L10 games! Also, his 4 starts vs. TB this season were all decent and therefore, I think that the Rays don’t deserve to be so favored by the books today.

NFL Premium Play 09/04

NFL Pick #1: Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Green Bay Packers (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada (OR -118 / 1.85 on Pinnacle Sports)

Detailed Write Up:

I understand that SEA is coming from an incredible season and at home, they are really an awesome team behind their fans. However, I’m pretty high with the Packers for this season and this key 6-points line looks valuable to me. GB’s offense with a healthy Aaron Rodgers leading them will be a tough unit to defend now that they have a solid running game as well, while I expect some huge improvement on the defensive end w/ some healthy players and key acquisitions. On my Power Rankings, I have GB w/ the same ranking as of this Seahawks team and therefore, even though their home field advantage is pretty strong (the best in the league), this is not worth 6 full points that they are receiving from the books tonight!

MLB Premium Card 09/03

MLB Pick #4: 909 New York Mets @ 910 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. deGrom vs. T. Koehler)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 7 @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The first 2 games of this series were pure slugfests w/ 15 and 14 runs scored and we couldn’t be happier as we cashed our OVER play quite easily yesterday. However, for tonight I think that this will turn into a “Pitchers duel” and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here.

NYM’s SP Jacob deGrom has been consistently lately as he finished August w/ pretty underrated stats line of 3.42 ERA, 3.05 FIP & 3.07 xFIP! He already has faced MIA twice this season and was great in both starts w/ just one ER allowed in 14 innings!

On the other end, MIA’s SP Tom Koehler is coming from b2b decent starts on the road @COL & @ATL. This is a good sign for him due to his heavy struggles on the road this season because at home, Koehler has been excellent this season w/ 2.69 ERA + 3.28 FIP + 3.98 xFIP!

We are looking for two underrated young Pitchers that I expect to perform quite well lately and will be a tough matchup for these offenses.

MLB Pick #5 & #6: 921 Toronto Blue Jays @ 922 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: M. Stroman vs. C. Archer)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 921 Toronto Blue Jays ML @ +103 / 2.03 on Bookmaker

Pick: Under 7 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Detailed Write Ups:

I expect this contest to be like NYM/MIA game: a pitcher’s duel! Also, I’m taking the Blue Jays in here as long they are underdogs because I have this contest as a pure 50/50 game.

TOR’s SP Marcus Stroman struggled heavily lately but he bounced back pretty strong on his last start vs. BOS w/ 7.2 strong IP’s & a nice 6/1 K/BB ratio! His 1.96 FIP & 2.28 xFIP marks in that game were excellent! He had 6 days off for today’s matchup, so I expect him to be “fresh” and ready to go tonight.

On the other end, TB’s SP Chris Archer had an amazing stretch w/ 4 consecutive starts allowing just ER just to be pounded on his last start by BOS by allowing 7 ER’s in just 4 IP’s! I’ve checked all the advanced stats from him (speed of his pitches) and everything looked normal, so it was just an “off” day for him and obviously, I expect a bounce back game from Archer today.