MLB Free Premium Play 08/23

MLB Pick #1: 981 Baltimore Orioles @ 982 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs. K. Hendricks)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 981 Baltimore Orioles ML @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

BAL’s SP Bud Norris has been great lately w/ a nice run of 4 straight quality outings. Note that he faced some tough matchups in those starts like LAA, TOR & CWS – all dangerous lineups and still he looked pretty good.

His K% numbers have been excellent in this second half of season w/ 22.4% K% mark vs. 16.5% in this second half of season and this is good news for him because CHC lineup has been a “K machine” for quite some time – I have them ranked dead last (#30) in the league in L30 days w/ an abysmal 26.0% K% mark!

BAL will face K. Hendricks who has been pretty good as well. However his advanced numbers are screaming for some regression as his 1.66 ERA does not match his 3.54 FIP & 3.85 xFIP numbers!  BAL offense was shut down by J. Arrieta last night and they are looking to bounce back today – they are ranked #6 in L14 days, so I expect them to do some damage in here.

Daily Message 08/23

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 120-102 ATS | +42.7 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 120-102 ATS | +14.6 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 4-5 ATS | -6.9 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 4-5 ATS | -3.1 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

Miami ML WIN

Over ARI/SD 8.5 Double Dime LOSS

Cleveland RL-1.5 LOSS

Seattle RL-1.5 WIN

Daily Message: 

We ended last night w/ a subpar 2-2 ATS for the day losing our Top Play w/ OVER ARI/SD. That game started well for us w/ 4 runs scored in the first 2 innings but then, the bats went cold w/ 5 entire innings without a single run scored.

We are now 85-63 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +20.7 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +56.5 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +101 / 2.01, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

English Premier league Round 2 Update: 4 plays were released for this Saturday!

- 7:45AM EST: FREE Premium Play A. Villa vs. Newcastle
- 10AM EST: 3 Premium Plays added
- 12:30PM EST: We might have one play for the Everton vs. Arsenal game, check back @12PM EST!

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

Soccer Free Premium Play 08/23: Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Newcastle (+0.25) @ -128 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

(Note that this contest is going to be played @7:45 AM EST / 1:45PM CET!)

We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.

The problem is that by playing at home, Villa are “pressured” to use a more offensive style – something that they tend to struggle especially without their two top forwards in Benteke and Libor Kozák.

Newcastle United was a nice surprise against the champions Man City. They lost 0-2 but they were not that far from squeezing a draw in that game. Their new signings (especially Cabella and Riviere) were dynamic and Newcastle showed some great speed on the front w/ their mobile forwards. Like Villa did in Round 1 against Stoke City, Newcastle can be pretty dangerous on the counter. Villa didn’t concede much space on the back vs. Stoke City, but by playing at home in front of their fans, they will use a more offensive style and therefore, Newcastle will enjoy some space after recovering the ball.

Aston Villa struggled badly at home in the last season and by using the same exact style of play, I wouldn’t be surprised if those home struggles carry on for this new season.

Newcastle (PK) has some value but I like more the +0.25 AH line as long as the line is “better”  than -135 / 1.71, so I’m taking the visitors in this contest.

MLB Premium Card 08/22

MLB Pick #1: 909 Miami Marlins @ 910 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: H. Alvarez vs. F. Morales)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 909 Miami Marlins ML @ -128 / 1.78 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

The Marlins have some chances to get a playoff spot via wild card and they really need to take care of games like this, so I expect them to be focused tonight.

They will send Henderson Alvarez to the mound. He was excellent on his first start after coming back off DL w/ 1 ER allowed in 7 IP’s while having a nice 1.29 ERA + 1.85 FIP + 2.38 xFIP stats line vs. ARI. His 6 K’s was his best mark since mid June! Pitching @COL is not easy but Alvarez has an elite groundball% rate of 54.6%, so this might help him avoid the HR threat.

I’m fading COL’s SP F. Morales because he has been simply awful for quite some time! His 5.32 FIP & 5.31 xFIP numbers in the second half of season says it all along w/ a truly terrible 12.7% BB% rate! MIA lineup has been more patient lately by being ranked #3 in the league in BB% w/ 9.3%. I expect them to put some runs in the score.

Note also that there is a 40/60% chance of raining in this contest, so this could end up being a bullpen’s battle and COL’s bullpen is the worst in the league = another potential edge for MIA!

MLB Free Premium Play 08/22

MLB Pick: 915 Houston Astros @ 916 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: B. Peacock vs. C. Carrasco)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 916 Cleveland Indians RL-1.5 @  +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

I’ve faded HOU’s Brad Peacock on his L2 starts, here’s what I’ve wrote on his last start against MIN:

“MIN is coming from a series vs. best team in the league in which they scored 5, 4 & 6 runs in the L3 games all vs. decent pitchers. For tonight, I expect them to make some damage vs. Brad Peacock who has a god awful 10.86 FIP & 7.18 xFIP to show in the second half of season!”

Surprisingly, he held the Twins to just 1 ER in 5 innings of work, but everything rest was mediocre! He needed 115 pitches to complete 5 IP’s for an obscene 23.0 P/IP mark. The 115 pitches mark was by some margin his season high and w/ just 4 days off for this contest, I expect him to tire a bit fast today. He is a fly ball pitcher w/ 40.3% FB% rate in this season and his 12.7% HR/FB rate isn’t help him at all – this could be is a tough combination for tonight @BOS w/ the winds blowing out to left field at 10-15 MPH!

Well, Peacock allowed 5 ER’s in just 4.1 IP’s w/ a subpar 3/2 K/BB & 2 HR’s allowed for an abysmal 9.13 FIP! CLE is ranked #2 vs. RHP’s this season, so I expect another rough start for Peacock.

I’ve ride Carlos Carrasco on his last start vs. BAL for a Top play w/ great success… Here’s what I’ve wrote about him:

“On the other side, CLE SP Carlos Carrasco was great on his last start @NYY:

ERA        FIP         xFIP
0.00       1.53       3.03

Between the bullpen and that last start, Carrasco has a 2.08 ERA since he was demoted in late April! I expect him to take advantage of this second chance to finish strong the season because his advanced numbers are supporting this potential good run from him.”

He was great! He held the potent BAL lineup to 7 scoreless innings w/ a nice 5/0 K/BB ratio! HOU lineup is dangerous against LHP’s but they struggle vs. RHP’s and therefore, I expect Carrasco to be decent tonight while CLE offense will score some runs.

Daily Message 08/22

Daily Message 08/22

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 118-100 ATS | +43.9 units

MLB 2014 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 118-100 ATS | +15.7 units

MLB 2014 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 4-5 ATS | -6.9 units

Soccer 2014-15 Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 4-5 ATS | -3.1 units

Soccer 2014-15 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Yesterday's MLB Recap Plays:

NY Yankees RL-1.5 WIN

Under MIN/CLE 7 WIN

Over CIN/ATL 8 PUSH

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a pretty profitable day by going 2-0-1 ATS in our plays. It could have been a perfect 3-0 SWEEP but the Reds and the Braves failed to score a run in the last 4 innings of the ball game, so our Over 8 Play was a push.

We are now 83-61 ATS in the second half of season for a nice +21.8 units to show using a 1-2-3MM system or +57.7 units using my recommended 3-4-5MM system. Please note that the average odds of my MLB plays are @ +101 / 2.01, so we are not talking about laying huge odds in favorites teams, instead, we have been aggressive in our approach w/ nice success.

The English Premier league Round 2 is right here and I’ll release the first plays for this weekend later today!

As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

MLB Premium Card 08/21

MLB Pick #1: 959 Houston Astros @ 960 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: D. Keuchel vs. B. McCaarthy)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 960 New York Yankees RL-1.5 @ +125 / 2.25 on Betonline

MLB Pick #1: 961 Cleveland Indians @ 962 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: D. Kluber vs. P. Hughes)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 7 @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

MLB Pick #3: 953 Atlanta Braves @ 954 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: J. Teheran vs. D. Holmberg)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 8 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

My fair line for this contest is 9-runs so we are getting some value w/ OVER in here.

ATL’s offense has been “red-hot” lately! I have them ranked #8 in the league in the L14 days and they are particularly good vs. Left-Handed Pitchers – they are ranked #6 in the league in this season. The last time they have faced a LHP it was Francisco Liriano, who was been fantastic (I had a play w/ him) just to be pounded by the Braves, allowing 7 ER’s in just 4 Innings!

For this contest, they will face CIN’s SP Holmberg who was knocked around for five runs on seven hits in just 2.2 IP’s against the Cubs in his debut. He was quickly demoted while his AAA numbers are subpar to say the least: 4.64 ERA and 1.66 WHIP! I expect ATL’s offense to do some damage!

On the other end, I’m fading ATL’s SP Julio Teheran as well in here! He “bounced back” on his last start vs. OAK after 2 consecutive bad outings but note that still, his numbers weren’t “that good” w/ bad command 1/3 K/BB and an awful 6.47 FIP + 6.39 xFIP marks!

After a terrible offensive stretch, CIN offense has been better later (the return of B. Phillips is a great help for them) by being ranked #20 in L7 days (they are dead last #30 for quite some time) and so, I expect them to score some runs as well vs. inconsistent Teheran.