Soccer World Cup Play 07/13: Germany vs. Argentina

Soccer World Cup Play: Germany vs. Argentina

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

This is the big final and according to my numbers, we should be dealing w/ the Germans being favored to win @ around +100 / 2.00, so we are getting some value w/ them IMO.

I don’t expect any surprises in the starting lineups for both teams, and even their game plan is relatively “easy” to predict…

I expect Argentina to continue to use their “traditional” conservative style… I’ve talked a bit in their last game vs. Netherlands:

“These two teams are pretty similar in their “concept” of the game: they don’t take many risks when going forward, they have consistently 6 men well positioned defensively that won’t leave their position "for nothing", and obviously, they put almost all their “faith” that their best player solves the game for them: Messi for Argentina, and Robben for Netherlands.”

In that game, Argentina did a good defensive job in not allowing the Dutch team almost a single clear chance of goal (Netherlands’ only chance to score was already in the final minutes of the game). However, Argentina didn’t create many chances to score as well, so our Under Play was probably our easiest “winner play” of the tournament.

It is tough for them to create build-up plays with so few men on the front. Things got tougher when Di Maria got injured because his amazing pace on the break was a huge key factor for them. They still have Messi on the front, but teams have been smart, and they do not allow him to have much space. I don’t think this will change today w/ this organized Germany team.

Even though Argentina is doing a solid job on the defensive end, this is the first time in the tournament that they will face a team that knows exactly what to do when having possession…

Switzerland, Belgium and Netherlands were all more comfortable in playing @ counter-attack style against Argentina, and because the Argentines’ always defended w/ at least 6 players, it was tough for them to create scoring chances in fast-break occasions.

On the other side, this German squad plays @ possession style… they are patient w/ the ball and their midfield unit has some great creativity and off-the ball notion. They will find and create gaps on Argentina’s defense w/ their precise movement. Something that the Argentines’ opponents struggled to do that…

The best overall teams in this tournament IMO were this German team and France. Making a play in Germany in this final battle is just a correlation of what we’ve watched in this last month.  

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on Germany (-0.25) @ +103 / 2.03 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -108 / 1.92 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 07/12: Brazil vs. Netherlands

Soccer World Cup Play: Brazil vs. Netherlands

This is toughest game to handicap in the World Cup as both teams were eliminated in the semis’, and most probably, both would wish to not play today’s contest. Motivation (or lack of it) is always a tough factor in these kind of games and both coaches will rotate their team, giving opportunities for those who didn’t play much in this tournament.

The lack of concentration and intensity are pretty common in these games. That’s why they are usually high scoring games:

1978: Brazil 2 Italy
1982: Poland 3 France 2
1986: France 4 Belgium 2 (aet)
1990: Italy 2 England 1
1994: Sweden 4 Bulgaria 0
1998: Croatia 2 Netherlands 1
2002: Turkey 3 South Korea 2
2006: Germany 3 Portugal 1
2010: Germany 3 Uruguay 2

We are dealing w/ a relatively high totals line of 2.75/3 goals for some reason and I don’t see much value in this line.

However, I see some nice value w/ Brazil @ this current price for several key factors:

First of all, I expect Brazil to have a bit “more” motivation than the Dutch team. I understand that they were humiliated vs. Germany but we should not forget that they are still playing at home, and they want to show they have some “pride” in front of their fans.

I also think that the Brazilians could have some physical edge in here. They had one more day off to “rest” vs. NED, and we couldn’t also ignore the fact that the Dutch side is coming from b2b full 120min overtime games vs. Costa Rica & Argentina in the last 2 games.

Both NT coaches will make some changes in their starting lineups, and I think that Brazil has more depth on their roster than the Dutch. Actually, putting Hulk, Fred and/or Oscar in the bench could be a good thing for them, because they all considerably under-performed in this tournament, and Brazil has some quality in their second line of players when we compared w/ the Dutch bench.

There is no question that Netherlands is more organized collectively than Brazil. However, their system relies in a good defensive positioning as they played primarily w/ a conservative mindset. The problem is that as I’ve mentioned before, in these games, teams tend to not be 100% focused, and the Dutch team will be tempted to play a more free-floating offensive game today. This is good news for Brazil because the game will be played @ their preferred style: broken up and down contest w/ a lot of pace instead of the "boring" Dutch slow-paced approach.

I expect Brazil to win this contest and secure the third-place spot in this tournament

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil ML @ +113 / 2.13 on Bookmaker

Soccer World Cup Premium Play: Argentina vs. Netherlands

Soccer World Cup Play: Argentina vs. Netherlands

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

I’ve already said what I think for this contest on my yesterday’s write up for BRA/GER game:

“Unlikely tomorrow’s game between Argentina and Netherlands, this contest will be played @ blazing fast tempo because that’s just the way Brazil plays their game.”

These two teams are pretty similar in their “concept” of the game: they don’t take many risks when going forward, they have consistently 6 men well positioned defensively that won’t leave their position "for nothing", and obviously, they put almost all their “faith” that their best player solves the game for them: Messi for Argentina, and Robben for Netherlands.

I took the “UNDER” as my Top Play in the Dutch last game vs. Costa Rica:

“It might sound strange but IMO, the Dutch attack is far from being "that" impressive in this World Cup even though they have scored 5, 3, 2 and 2 goals in their games. Note that most all their goals have been scored via deadly counter-attacks… Arjen Robben is a “monster” in this type of plays! The problem is that the Dutch won’t have much space to counter-attack against the packed Costa Rica’s defensive line who will sit deep, so I expect Netherlands to struggle offensively.”

Obviously, I don’t expect Argentina to be 100% focused in defense like Costa Rica, but I expect similar offensive problems for the Dutch attack today. Unlike Brazil for example, Argentina’s full-backs aren’t offensive minded, they won’t be caught off the position and this could hurt the Dutch chances to score in transition from the wing.

The good news is that I expect Argentina to struggle (as always) in generating build-up plays. The Dutch NT Van Gaal will take a pretty similar approach from their game vs. Chile in which they won 2-0.

Here are my notes for NED in that game:

“I’ve faded them vs. Chile in the last game of the group stages w/ no success:

I expect the Dutch defense to have some huge problems vs. Chile’s quick and mobile forwards. In this tournament, Netherlands is using a very high positioned defensive line… both Spain and Australia created problems by passing the ball on their backs and this won’t be much different for today. The “difference” is that Chile’s forwards are more equipped and dangerous giving such wide space to them vs. Spanish & Australian forwards.

Well, the Dutch did the exact opposite in that game! They were ultra conservative, gave the “ball possession” to the Chileans and tried to do some damage in quick counter-attack moves – it worked perfectly for them!”

With both teams struggling in generating chances to score and w/ this contest being played @ slow pace = DOUBLE DIME PLAY w/ UNDER!

I’m also taking a small play w/ Argentina PK in here…

I expect a tight contest but I feel that Argentina can have some edge especially via the “Messi factor”. The Dutch side don't have strong defensive midfielders that are great in man-marking to do the job vs. Messi. Actually, they have one player (Nigel de Jong) but he is banged up and most likely will miss today’s contest. In a game that will be decided by minor details, this could be THE DIFFERENCE!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Under 2.25 Goals @ 124 / 1.81 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on Betonline)

Pick: 1.5 units ("Half" Dime Play) on Argentina (PK) @ -136 / 1.74 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -137 / 1.73 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer World Cup Premium Play: Brazil vs. Germany

Soccer World Cup Play: Brazil vs. Germany

(...)

ADDED PLAY:

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Unlikely tomorrow’s game between Argentina and Netherlands, this contest will be played @ blazing fast tempo because that’s just the way Brazil plays their game. I’ve already said that I don’t think that Brazil has a good defensive line and without their best defender Thiago Silva, this won’t change at all.

On the other side, Germany had some problems against Ghana and Algeria in the World Cup. Why? Because those 2 African teams attacked them w/ tremendous pace on the front. They explored the space between the Germans’ defensive line and their GK Manuel Neuer to create some good chances to score: Ghana scored two goals against them while Algeria forced Neuer to do this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ConZKtPCAJ0

Even without Neymar, Brazil has great quality on the front and therefore, I’m taking the “OVER” in this contest!

NOTE: I’ve already checked both starting lineups and the good news is that both NT coaches are fielding their best potential attacking formations for today – Germany w/ Klose as striker and Brazil w/ Bernard in the place of Neymar!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Over 2 Goals @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

PLAYER PROPS ADDED:

Pick: 1 unit ("1/3" Single Dime Play) on Hulk to score a goal @ +390 / 4.90 on 5 Dimes (OR +362 / 4.62 on Pinnacle Sports)

Pick: 1 unit ("1/3" Single Dime Play) on Thomas Muller to score anytime@ +262 / 3.62 on Pinnacle Sports (OR +240 / 3.40 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer World Cup Semi-Finals Brazil vs. Germany

Soccer World Cup Play: Brazil vs. Germany

This contest is probably the toughest game to handicap in this tournament and rightfully so, the odds offered are almost a pure 50/50 proposition.

We have two teams with complete different styles going against each other…

While Germany wants to play a slow-paced patient passing style in which they control the ball possession (we can consider their style as an adapted version of Pepe Guardiola’s Tiki-Taka style), Brazil wants to play in a frenetic tempo w/ quick turnovers to use their good pace of their midfielders and wingers.

This preferred style of Brazil was well noticed in their last game vs. Colombia: they pressured pretty high on the field, they didn’t allow Colombia to generate build-up plays from behind and they completely controlled the game in the first 60 minutes of the game!

2 important conclusions from that game:

1)      Brazil was supper aggressive without the ball and committed the absurd number of 31 fouls but received "only" 2 yellow cards! It was remarkable to watch Fernandinho not receiving a single yellow card after some awful tackles against James Rodriguez! Why? Well, they were clearly protected by the referee who allowed them to be super physical. Oddly enough, it was Brazilian start Neymar who got injured in that game and is OUT of the competition.  This kind of “soft” refereeing was highlighted all over the world and we have a quick answer from FIFA: (http://msn.foxsports.com/soccer/story/fifa-reject-claims-that-world-cup-referees-have-been-told-to-be-more-lenient-070814)

For this contest, I don’t think that the referee will be so “patient and soft” after that Colombia vs. Brazil game… I’m making a small play w/ OVER Bookings in here!

2)      Brazil’s pressure on the midfield was really impressive to start the game, they were literally everywhere! However, we could see that they didn’t have “legs” late in the game and this team really can’t control and protect a lead without putting themselves in some tough problems. Colombia controlled the game in the last 20 minutes of the game as the lack of stamina in several Brazilians’ players was well noticed. Brazil plays w/ a lot of heart and emotion but they seem to have some problems in managing the flow of the game.

Well, if Brazil plays w/ intensive passion, the Germans are a more cerebral team. Like Brazil, the Germans had the lead early in their last game against France. However, unlike Brazil, they simply didn’t allow the French side to do anything against them in the second half!

The absence of Thiago Silva is important for Brazil as Dante will replace him and will play @left-center back. Marcelo will be the left full-back and IMO, this Dante-Marcelo partnership on the left is the weakest link of Brazil’s defense, and the Germans have a potent right side w/ Lahm + Muller who will try to explore such potential weakness.

NOTE: I'll release a Premium Play for this contest, but first I want to confirm both teams' starting lineups for today, so the final update will be released around @3PM EST +/-.

Pick: 1.5 units ("Half" Single Dime Play) on Over 3.5 Bookings (Yellow Cards) @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

Soccer World Cup Premium Play: Netherlands vs. Costa Rica

Soccer World Cup Play: Netherlands vs. Costa Rica

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Unlike the others 7 teams left in this competition, Costa Rica is the only team that will bring a deliberate defensive approach to the field. This has been the way they have been playing in this World Cup w/ a tremendous success, and obviously, I don’t think this will change for this contest.

Their defensive coverage has been impeccable and their 5-men defensive line has control every single game so far while being placed deeper in the field. This could cause tremendous problems to this Dutch team.

It might sound strange but IMO, the Dutch attack is far from being "that" impressive in this World Cup even though they have scored 5, 3, 2 and 2 goals in their games. Note that most all their goals have been scored via deadly counter-attacks… Arjen Robben is a “monster” in this type of plays! The problem is that the Dutch won’t have much space to counter-attack against the packed Costa Rica’s defensive line who will sit deep, so I expect Netherlands to struggle offensively.

On the other end, Costa Rica will attack w/ few men and I expect the Dutch defense to do a good job. NT’s coach Van Gaal has turned his team into a great defensive team – something not usual w/ the Netherlands’ teams of the past.

My fair line for this contest is 2-Goals line and therefore, we are getting some nice value w/ UNDER in here = DOUBLE DIME PLAY!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Under 2.5 Goals @ -125 / 1.80 on Betonline

Soccer World Cup Premium Play 07/05: Argentina vs. Belgium

Soccer World Cup Play: Argentina vs. Belgium

I expect this contest to be wide open and fun to watch…

Argentina (once again) struggled to win and defeated Switzerland only in the extra time (Di Maria scored the decisive goal @117th min). Their usual attacking problems of lack of width on the wings showed up once again as the Swiss defense did a great job in covering the center of the midfielder (w/ Inler and Behrami) where Argentina is really dangerous w/ the forwards runs of Messi.

The Swiss made only one mistake all game in not putting the proper men in their defensive midfield and what happened then? Answer: Argentina’s goal!

The good news for Argentina is that Belgium plays w/ 3 offensive minded midfielders that don’t have the same tactical discipline to cover the ground in their defensive zone. This was pretty clear in the last game vs. USA where Fellaini & Witsel gave way to much central space when USA had the ball. This lack of defensive positioning from these two players will be the X factor of this contest because this is Argentina’s strongest link offensively.

However, I also expect Belgium’s attack to do some damage… their offensive display against team USA was impressive even though they wasted way too many chances to score. Their tremendous pace and tempo in the front will be a problem for Argentina’s lack of speed especially on the wings.

Argentina’s superior talent will make the difference in this contest while both attacks have some edge in their matchups, so I expect both teams to score at least one goal.

Split the wager 33%/33%/33% like it was 2 "Single Dime Plays":

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on Argentina (-0.25) @ -114 / 1.88 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -120 / 1.83 on Betonline)

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2 Goals @ -127 / 1.79 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -135 / 1.74 on Betonline)

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on Both Teams to Score @ +101 / 2.01 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -110 / 1.91 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Premium Play 07/04: France vs. Germany

Soccer World Cup Play: France vs. Germany

We definitely got the best price w/ France as basically the books are now offering this contest as a pure 50/50 game while we got them w/ nice +0.25 line.

We are dealing w/ two of the best teams of the competition. Both teams have a fluid offensive style w/ good passing and they use quite a lot their wing-backs to create more width on their game.

The Germans struggled offensively in the last game vs. Algeria mostly because their NT coach Joachim Low is “in love” in playing P. Lahm as a center midfield instead of using him as right full-back. He used Mustafi for that position, and he was worthless on the offensive end because he really doesn’t have much offensive skills that could help the team. Eventually, Low benched him, bring back Khedira and finally put Lahm @ RB position and everything changed for them! They created several chances to win the game in regulation and scored 2 goals in extra time! I’ve just checked their starting lineup for today and Lahm will indeed start @RB! = It helps our “OVER” plays

France has been one of my favorite teams so far in the tournament… I had a top play in their last game vs. Nigeria:

“I really love France’s midfield trio on the center of the field w/ Matuidi, Pogba and Cabaye. These three players can defend and attack with great quality, and they impose a great tempo to the game – something pivotal in today’s preferred style of play. Ribery is gone, but it looks like Benzema “connects” pretty well with Olivier Giroud on the front as both players are great passers despite being strikers.”

Their offensive flow has been a joy to watch - probably the best team in the whole Tournament! In the last game against Ecuador, even though they rested some players and didn’t put 100% full effort on the game, they created a ton of good chances to score but their finishing ability in that particular day was subpar.”

France struggled early on the game… Giroud didn’t work well w/ Benzema in that game and France’s NT coach Deschamps made the KEY tactical move @ 62th min, when he benched Giroud and replaced him w/ Griezmann… The French completely dominated the game in the last 25 minutes while creating plenty of chances to score. Again, I’ve just checked their starting lineup for today and Griezmann will start today! = It helps our “OVER” plays

Why France then? Well, I think that they are more organized defensively than the Germans who are allowing their opponents to have some great chances to score. I also think that France will have a small physical edge over Germany. After all, Germany is coming from an OT game vs. Algeria while France played earlier only 90min vs. Nigeria, and this could make the difference late in the game!

Split the wager 33%/33%/33% like it was 2 "Single Dime Plays":

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2 Goals @ -128 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on Both Teams to Score @ +102 / 2.02 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -110 / 1.91 on Betonline)

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on France (+0.25) @ -125 / 1.80 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 07/04: Brazil vs. Colombia

Soccer World Cup Play: Brazil vs. Colombia

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Hands down, Colombia has been the most exciting team of this World Cup.  I’ve released one of my biggest plays of the competition w/ them in the last game vs. Uruguay, and they didn’t disappoint us by winning “easily” the game 2-0. Here are some notes I’ve made about them

“The bad news for them is that unlike Italy and England, Colombia attacking fluidity is astonishing! Their playmaker James Rodriguez has been one of the best players of this tournament and their attacking midfield unit (Rodriguez, Cuadrado and Ibarbo) are playing quite well w/ great tempo and some beautiful passing plays between them. The difference of “dynamic” between this unit and the Uruguayans midfield unit is just huge!  As brave as the Uruguayan defensive line has been in the last 2 games, we are talking about another different level w/ the Colombian attack…”

Well, Colombian’s playmaker James Rodriguez did it again… This team has great width and pace on the wings, and w/ James at great level, it is really tough to stop them because they are generating build-up plays from everywhere! Obviously, I expect Brazil’s NT coach Scolari to be focused in limiting James, but the bad news for him, is that Brazil’s best defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo is suspended and will miss this contest. Gustavo is a KEY PIECE for Brazil w/ his great defensive positioning, and they really don’t have a good replacement for him in their roster… I expect Paulinho or Ramires to play his position but w/ way less defensive efficiency = great potential edge for Colombia!

As good as Colombia has been, I feel that their defense hasn’t been properly tested in this World Cup. Yes, they held Uruguay scoreless in the last game, but Luis Suarez didn’t play and without him, Uruguay’s attack is really poor:

“Once again (and even w/ Suarez), Uruguay had some huge problems to generate build-up plays against the Italian defense. Their lack of creativity on the midfield was well noticed and they really needed Suarez to make some “magic moves” for them because collectively, they just can’t do it. Note that their goal vs. Italy came from a set piece play.”

In the group stage, they have allowed one goal vs. Ivory Coast & Japan and even tough Greece didn’t score against them, they created plenty of good chances to score. Colombian’s duo of center-backs are slow-footed (especially the 38-years old veteran Mario Yepes) and their full-backs are super offensive-minded. This could be dangerous against Brazil’s top forwards and midfielders who will have some space to attack, and I expect Brazil to do some damage as well…

I understand that the Round of L16 produced 6 “UNDER’s”, 1 “OVER’ & 1 “PUSH” and therefore, the books adjusted their totals line for this stage w/ this conservative mindset, but these two teams have some good attacking edges. My fair line for this contest is 2.5/3 Goals and so, I’m taking OVER & Both Teams to Score in this contest!

Split the wager 50/50 like it was One "Double Dime Play":

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Over 2.25 Goals @ -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -105 / 1.95 on Betonline)

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Both Teams to Score @ +100 / 2.00 on Pinnacle Sports (OR +100 / 2.00 on 5 Dimes)

World Cup Quarter-Finals Preview

The Round of L16 was probably the most exciting stage in a World Cup that I can remember... Even though all the 8 number #1 seeds advanced to the quarter finals, 5 games went to OT so, we are talking about almost all games being tight contests w/ only Colombia winning their game safely.

We had an absurd number of “OVER’s” cashing in the group stage but in this knockout-out stage, only one game had at least 3 goals scored in the 90 minutes - Mexico vs. Netherlands and still, the last 2 goals were scored @88th & 92th minutes! Obviously, teams were more cautious w/ their approach especially in the first half (only Brazil vs. Chile & Colombia vs. Uruguay had goals scored in the first half), but IMO, the games were still wide open… heck, it was really incredibly how the game between USA & Belgium ended up scoreless in the regulation!

World Cup Winner Odds (Pinnacle Sports:

Brazil                    +274
Argentina            +403
Germany             +422
Netherlands       +454     
France                 +644
Colombia            +992
Belgium               +1023
Costa Rica          +3500


Quarter-Finals Draw:

Game 1 – Brazil vs. Colombia
Game 2 – Germany vs. France
Game 3 – Netherlands vs. Costa Rica
Game 4 – Argentina vs. Belgium

Semi-Finals Draw:

Game 5 - Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2
Game 6 - Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4

Finals Draw:

Game 7 – Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

In my opinion, the top half of the draw is more interesting than the bottom half. Brazil, Colombia, France & Germany according to my PR numbers would be “favored” to win vs. any team of the bottom half draw… Yes, I think that all those 4 teams are better than Argentina right now (collectively).

However, we are yet to see a team clearly putting ahead of the others teams in terms of consistency and level of play… all of them (minus Colombia) suffered some tough rough stretches somewhere in the tournament, so the amount of uncertainty is huge. 

Netherlands’ NT coach Van Gaal and Costa Rica’s NT coach Pinto have been the better coaches so far. Van Gaal’s has changed his formation in-game vs. Mexico after being down 0-1 w/ great success and the Dutch can play in any possible style and still be successful, so their contest will be fascinating to watch tactically-wise. On the other side, there is no question that Argentina’s NT coach Sabella has been doing a poor job when we talk about the potential of his players vs. real productivity.

The Goalkeepers have been amazing so far this tournament, but we are seeing some incredible poor finishing as well. This current era is lacking the “pure” strikers like we had in the early 2000’s w/ Ronaldo (Brazilian), Henry, Van Nistelrooy, Inzaghi or Batistuta to name a few.

This has been a great World Cup and I really don’t think this will change with these upcoming games.

Soccer World Cup Preview: USA vs. Belgium

Soccer World Cup Play: USA vs. Belgium

Like Argentina for example (it was well noticed Argentina's problems early today vs. Switzerland), Belgium had some great expectations pre-tournament (they were ranked #5 odds-wise before the tournament) and even though they have won all their 3 games, their performance has been subpar – they needed late goals in all their games to win.

Their biggest problem has been the same since the start:

“In the first game of the day, Belgium had some tremendous problems to defeat Algeria. I’ve mentioned on Twitter: “By playing w/ 4 pure Full-backs, Belgium doesn't have width on the wings, way too narrow = easier to defend”. This was in full display yesterday against a defensive minded Algeria team. They are considered to be one of the dark horses to win the competition, but their positioning on the field was subpar and against real top quality teams they will be prone to be exposed.”

I’ve just confirmed their starting lineup for today, and once again, they will start w/ 4 pure full-backs. This USA team is well organized defensively and without width on the wings, I expect Belgium to struggle once again to generate build-up plays because almost all their offensive game goes through the center of the field.

USA’s fighting spirit has been remarkable and they are here being #2 of one of the toughest groups of the competition, the same thing cannot be said about Belgium as their path was way easier w/ games vs. Algeria, Korea Republic and Russia. 

I expect this contest to be a close one and all this favoritism for the European side does not get along in my opinion.

My Lean was USA (+0.5)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 07/01: Argentina vs. Switzerland

Soccer World Cup Play: Argentina vs. Switzerland

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Despite being a major favorite to win the tournament and even though they won all their 3 games on the group stage, Argentina has been a disappointing team so far in the World Cup.

Their defensive line is slow, especially on the wings and the lack of pace of their defensive midfielders is quite evident. This understatement helped us to win w/ OVER in their last game vs. Nigeria:

 “On the other side, Argentina defensive line didn’t impress me at all. Actually, Iran had some great chances to score @ 2nd half in counter attack moves! Nigeria is build to play in counter attack using the amazing speed and pace of their forwards so, I expect Nigeria to do some damage as well.”

Nigeria scored 2 goals in that game and created some more good chances to score… this will be well explored by the Swiss team who has some great speed on the wings and has been particularly deadly in counter-attack moves.

On the other side, Argentina attack has… Messi! Sergio Aguero is OUT of the tournament, and will be replaced by Lavezzi. As weird as it might sound, I expect them to be a better team w/ Lavezzi on the field! Aguero is the better player (better finisher) but he doesn’t work much for the team and his off-the ball movement was really subpar in this tournament. With Di Maria on the left and Lavezzi on the right, I expect Argentina to be more dynamic offensively.

This Swiss team was supposed to be a great defensive team but they are committing some terrible and silly defensive mistakes in every single game. When they faced a real top team in the French side, they were blasted and allowed 5 goals (it could have been more!).

I expect Argentina to do some damage on the front w/ their individually brilliancy w/ Switzerland responding w/ deadly counter-attack moves = OVER GOALS!

Split the wager:

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Both Teams to Score @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Over 2.5 Goals @ -117 / 1.85 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -119 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer World Cup Play 06/30: France vs. Nigeria

Soccer World Cup Play: France vs. Nigeria

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

France has been one of the best teams of the Tournament and this is no surprise for us: we've won a Top Play w/ them in their first game, and also cashed a future play w/ them winning their respective group:

“However, this is a new team and more importantly, they have a good coach in Didier Deschamps that simply doesn’t allow any sign of indiscipline. In a controversial decision, Deschamps left out Manchester City’s star Samir Nasri because he believes team spirit is key to winning. In the playoffs, France was almost humiliated @Ukraine by losing 0-2, but they bounced back in France and won 3-0 and secured the qualification. Nasri started in the first game and had a terrible performance, while he didn’t play in the second game at home, so the correlation is pretty clear for me.

I was about to send this play earlier and being a Triple Dime Play, but the injury and absence of Franck Ribery was indeed a major blow for them. Nevertheless, I still think that we have some value in them to win the group as my fair line in here is France having 60% of chances to be #1 in the group @ -150 odds.

I really love France’s midfield trio on the center of the field w/ Matuidi, Pogba and Cabaye. These three players can defend and attack with great quality, and they impose a great tempo to the game – something pivotal in today’s preferred style of play. Ribery is gone, but it looks like Benzema “connects” pretty well with Olivier Giroud on the front as both players are great passers despite being strikers.”

Their offensive flow has been a joy to watch - probably the best team in the whole Tournament! In the last game against Ecuador, even though they rested some players and didn’t put 100% full effort on the game, they created a ton of good chances to score but their finishing ability in that particular day was subpar.

This Nigerian team is considered to be a good defensive team, but despite playing w/ a packed defensive line, they are allowing their opponents way too many chances.

I’ve noticed that prior to their game vs. Argentina in which I’ve released a play w/ OVER:

“Despite playing w/ a conservative mindset, I can’t ignore the fact that Bosnia had an absurd number of scoring chances but ultimately, they failed to capitalize. Note also that one legal goal was disallowed to them, so Nigeria was really “lucky” in not allowing at least one goal. I just can’t imagine being so “lucky” today against Argentina’s forwards.”

Well, Argentina scored 3 goals against them… I don’t think that Nigeria will keep the French dynamic attack in check!

On the other side, Nigeria’s forward Ahmed Musa is coming from a great individual performance against Argentina while facing the slow-footed RB Pablo Zabaleta. I expect the French defense to be ready to deal w/ his speed as RB Debuchy’s superior speed when compared to Zabaleta’s is going to help France in this individual matchup.

I expect France to win this contest by at least 2 goals of difference!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on France (-1) @ -145 / 1.69 on Bookmaker

ADDED PLAY:

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Parlay France ML x Germany ML @ -117 / 1.85 on Pinnacle Sports ( OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/29: Greece vs. Costa Rica

Soccer World Cup Play: Greece vs. Costa Rica

Costa Rica is hands down the biggest surprise of this World Cup! As weird it might sound, after facing Uruguay, Italy and England, this contest against Greece is going to be their toughest challenge so far matchup-wise.

Costa Rica showed an exceptional defensive organization while the forward Campbell did a great job as their lone target on the front w/ some great forward runs. In all the 3 group stage games, Costa Rica played w/ a conservative mindset… they were pretty comfortable in playing without the ball, gave the ball possession to the opponents and hit them in quick counter moves.

The problem for today is that the Greeks have a similar approach to the game! Costa Rica will feel the pressure to be the “favorites” unlike the first 3 games, where they were heavy underdogs!

I expect this contest to be tight one w/ few opportunities to score. No wonder the Totals Line of this game is just 2 Goals! Having said that, I grade this contest as a pure 50/50 game and so, we have some value w/ Greece at current odds.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Greece (PK) @ +110 / 2.10 Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/29: Netherlands vs. Mexico

Soccer World Cup Play: Netherlands vs. Mexico

I think that the Dutch team is clearly overrated for this contest and we are getting some value w/ Mexico at this current price.

Arjen Robben has been one of the best players of the tournament so far, and the return of Robbie Van Persie will make them a super dangerous team on the break.

However, I think that their defensive line is “suspicious” to say the least and their midfield unit will be outplayed by the Mexican most physical unit.

I’ve faded them vs. Chile in the last game of the group stages w/ no success:

“I expect the Dutch defense to have some huge problems vs. Chile’s quick and mobile forwards. In this tournament, Netherlands is using a very high positioned defensive line… both Spain and Australia created problems by passing the ball on their backs and this won’t be much different for today. The “difference” is that Chile’s forwards are more equipped and dangerous giving such wide space to them vs. Spanish & Australian forwards.”

Well, the Dutch did the exact opposite in that game! They were ultra conservative, gave the “ball possession” to the Chileans and tried to do some damage in quick counter-attack moves – it worked perfectly for them!

I’ve just checked their starting lineup for today and it looks like they will use a more offensive 4-3-3 formation w/ the inclusion of Dirk Kuijt in the starting XI, so I expect them to be more proactive.

On the other side, I really liked the way they have played in this World Cup – they have exceeded my best expectations! The key for such good “dynamic” has been their midfield unit of Herrera, Salcido and Guardado – they are playing w/ great tempo and are dominating the games strength-wise.

I expect Mexico to be more ready for this contest physically and this will show up especially late in the game.

W/ this more offensive approach from the Dutch on the paper judging their starting XI, I also expect this contest to have some goals as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Mexico (+0.5) @ -125 / 1.80 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.25 Goals @ -101 / 1.99 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -113 / 1.88 Betonline)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/28: Colombia vs. Uruguay

Soccer World Cup Play: Colombia vs. Uruguay

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

I was about to make a play w/ Colombia regardless the soap opera around Luis Suarez, but now that it is confirmed that Luis Suarez won’t play in here, I’ve just pulled the trigger and turn this play into a Triple Dime Play!

I had a play w/ Under in the last game of Uruguay against Italy, here are some notes about them:

“About Uruguay, I faded them in the last game vs. England with no success:

“Uruguay doesn’t have much talent on their midfield unit – their players have a phenomenal work-rate and work well defensively, but are limited offensively which puts some tremendous pressure on their frontline to generate offense. The problem is that Forlan has declined heavily in the last few years and more importantly, Luis Suarez isn’t @ 100%. His availability is still uncertain for this contest.”

Well, I was dead wrong about Luis Suarez! No shame about it! However, I expect Uruguay to struggle offensively vs. a packed Italian defensive line. They had tremendous problems to generate good chances vs. a defensive minded Costa Rica in the first game, and this packed Italian defensive line will expose (once again) the Uruguayans lack of creativity in the midfield.”

Once again (and even w/ Suarez), Uruguay had some huge problems to generate build-up plays against the Italian defense. Their lack of creativity on the midfield was well noticed and they really needed Suarez to make some “magic moves” for them because collectively, they just can’t do it. Note that their goal vs. Italy came from a set piece play.

However, not everything is bad about them! Their fighting spirit and defensive cohesion is tremendous, and primarily, this is why they are playing in here in the place of England and Italy.

The bad news for them is that unlike Italy and England, Colombia attacking fluidity is astonishing! Their playmaker James Rodriguez has been one of the best players of this tournament and their attacking midfield unit (Rodriguez, Cuadrado and Ibarbo) are playing quite well w/ great tempo and some beautiful passing plays between them. The difference of “dynamic” between this unit and the Uruguayans midfield unit is just huge!  As brave as the Uruguayan defensive line has been in the last 2 games, we are talking about another different level w/ the Colombian attack…

While I expect Colombia defense to do a reasonable job vs. Uruguay shorthanded forwards, I really don’t think Uruguay can hold the Colombians superior offensive skill set and therefore, I’m taking Colombia in here as my Triple Dime Play

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on Colombia ML @ +102 / 2.02 on Pinnacle Sports @ (OR +101 / 2.01 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/28: Brazil vs. Chile

Soccer World Cup Play: Brazil vs. Chile

Probably, this contest will be the most exciting game to watch of this Round of 16, as we’ll have two teams w/ attacking mindset facing each other.

The Chile’s attacking and fluid football has been a nice story so far in this World Cup. Here are some quick notes I’ve made about them through the tournament:

Against Australia:

“I have no doubt that Chile will be one of the most exciting teams to watch in this Tournament! They play a beautiful attacking football and they will press high on the pitch regardless the level of their opponent. Obviously, being such an offensive minded team, it has some painful costs on the defensive end, but this Australian team doesn’t have the talent to take advantage of that.”

Against Spain:

Why I’m not taking Chile then? Well, I’ve won my first Triple Dime Play of the tournament w/ them against Australia but I really didn’t like the way they defended in the second half. Too much immaturity and some bad positioning… it was enough to defeat an inferior level team, but against top notch competition, this could be a huge problem for them.

My strongest lean in here is Both Teams to score…. Spain just can’t be happy to simply control the game and manage to score one goal and protect the lead, they have to be more proactive, taking more risks and naturally, I expect them to be exposed against the quick – fast paced Chilean forwards especially by Alexis Sanchez.

Against Netherlands:

“I expect the Dutch defense to have some huge problems vs. Chile’s quick and mobile forwards. In this tournament, Netherlands is using a very high positioned defensive line… both Spain and Australia created problems by passing the ball on their backs and this won’t be much different for today. The “difference” is that Chile’s forwards are more equipped and dangerous giving such wide space to them vs. Spanish & Australian forwards.”

As good as their attack could be, their defense is “suspicious” to say the least! They have some problems in control the tempo of the game – they tend to push forward every single offensive play and honestly, their biggest problem relies on the defensive side, especially on the wings. In the last game, the Dutch winger Arjen Robben single handedly destroyed them w/ his forward runs and it’s not difficult to imagine that Neymar will do the same in here.

Brazil is yet to establish themselves as the #1 favorite team to win it all in the field, but their pace on the front, and especially when they are counter attacking will be too much for this Chilean defensive line who tends to play high on the field.

Note that I don’t’ think that Brazil won’t suffer today… their defensive line has committed several individual errors so far in the tournament, and the Chilean forwards’ will make some damage coming off the wings w/ Alexis Sanchez and Vargas.

I expect Brazil to win this contest in a high scoring affair!

Note: for those you can't get this Brazil (-0.75) line, my suggestion is to split Brazil ML + Brazil (-1).

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil (-0.75) @ -134 / 1.74 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -145 / 1.69 on Betonline)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.5 Goals @ -123 / 1.81 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -124 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/26: Belgium vs. Korea Republic

Soccer World Cup Play: Belgium vs. Korea Republic

Despite winning the first two games, Belgium is yet to make an exciting performance. Both their wins were close ones w/ the decisive goal being scored late in the games.

I think that this will change today against Korea… Note that they will make some changes in their lineup but they have good depth on the roster.

The biggest difference regarding today’s game and the first 2 contests is that unlike Algeria and Russia, who played ALL-IN defense mode, Korea will bring a proactive mindset to the field. They have a tiny chance to qualify for the next round but they would have to win and score some goals… this attacking mindset will work favorably for the Belgians as they finally will have some space to operate their attacking football.

Korea plays w/ good tempo, a nice fighting spirit but they are extremely vulnerable on the back and their attack lacks efficiency. At this price = Belgium to win the game!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Belgium ML @ -114 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/26: Russia vs. Algeria

Soccer World Cup Play: Russia vs. Algeria

Some notes about this Russian team:

“Russia is coached by coaching legend Fabio Capello who is a tactician master… His teams are always well organized especially on the defensive end, and this Russian team is no exception! In their qualification group, Russian has allowed only 5 goals in 10 games!

Usually, Russia has some problems on attack as they don’t have many offensive skillful players. Bad news happened just before the World Cup w/ their best player Roman Shirokov who is out of the competition due to injury! His absence is tremendous for this team, not only because he really is their best player (playmaker), but also because Capello doesn’t have a capable backup player to replace Shirokov.”

Their attacking problems were well noticed: just one goal scored in the first 2 games!

Once again, I expect them to struggle offensively against this well organized Algeria team. Yes, apparently it is possible for an African team to be cohesive and well organized! Unlike Russia, Algeria has some offensive power on the front and ultimately, this could be the difference maker.

I think that we are getting here the Russian team a bit overrated (almost like all European teams) and therefore, I’m taking Algeria +0.5 today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Algeria (+0.5) @ -112 / 1.89 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -117 / 1.85 on 5 Dimes)

Soccer World Cup Free Play 06/26: Germany vs. USA

Soccer World Cup Play: Germany vs. USA

***EARLY GAME***

There are a lot of conspiracy theories about this contest favoring a draw between these two teams = both would qualify for the next round.

In normal conditions, at this price, I would blindly make a play w/ Germany to win but because of this, I’ve decided to pass sides…

However, I think that this contest has all conditions to be a low scoring affair!

I expect this contest to be played @low tempo! We can expect the USA team to bring a conservative mindset for today facing the superior talented German side, but I also think that the Germans will be happy to keep the tempo low – they’ll save some energy for the knockout stages.

NOTE: I’ve checked the weather for this contest and it’s raining! The field won’t be good for a fluid wide-open game,  so I’m happy to take my chances w/ UNDER in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2.75 Goals @ -123 / 1.81 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -135 / 1.74 on Betonline)