NFL Week 10 Premium Play 11/11: Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Week 10 - 227 Miami Dolphins @ 228 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Play #1

I expect Miami to come fired up for this game and get a comfortable win tonight. After the whole story involving Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito, I believe the Dolphins locker room will adopt an "us against the world" mentality, remove themselves from all the media stories about the team and play a good game tonight. If they do that, they will definitely beat the lowly Buccaneers that are struggling a lot this season.

The practical consequence of the whole Martin/Incognito story is that Miami lost two starters of their offensive line. They were already struggling on this area, so things won't be easy for them on the offensive line for the rest of the season. However, Tampa Bay isn't being good this season in putting pressure on the opposing quarterback (#27 in the league with 17 sacks), so I expect Ryan Tannehill to have a decent game today. Even though they have Darrelle Revis on the secondary, Tampa Bay's pass defense hasn't been good this season, while their run defense has been average at best. Therefore, I expect Miami to pick up a decent amount of points tonight.

On the other hand, I expect Tampa Bay's offense to struggle big time tonight. With Doug Martin out for the season, the Bucs have pretty much abandoned their running game and they are only passing the football on offense. However, WR Mike Williams is also out for the season and so, Vincent Jackson is the only weapon that Tampa Bay has on offense, something that turns them into a very predictable offense. Besides that, QB Mike Glennon is very inexperienced and error prone, something that will cause him to make some errors tonight against a quite decent and fired up Dolphins' defense that has already 11 interceptions this season.

Miami is the better team out of the two, they have the better spot (more days to rest and the Bucs are coming from a tough game at Seattle) and they have the opportunity on National TV to show that they are focused on playing football and not on the whole saga around the team. Therefore, I believe Miami will pick up an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 227 Miami Dolphins (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Week 8 Premium Play 10/24: Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Week 7 - 103 Carolina Panthers @ 104 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Line: 36  points

I expect a low scoring game tonight. With a rookie QB and RB that will start for the first time this season, the Bucs didn't have the proper time to prepare and put a solid offensive game plan against one of the the best defensive teams in the league. They are still winless so the effort will be questionable for the upcoming games but not for tonight's prime time game and having said that, Tampa Bay is a decent defensive team especially against the run where they are ranked #2 in DVOA which are good news against a Panthers team that is run oriented. I'm playing the Under as my Single Dime Play 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 103/104 Under 40 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NFL Premium Play 09/15: New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Week 2 - 213 New Orleans Saints @ 214 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Line: New Orleans by 6 points

New Orleans is coming from a very good win over Atlanta, where their defense had a great performance for their usual level. Their blitzes are back now with Rob Ryan in here and the Saints' pass rush was able to put a lot of pressure on Matt Ryan at times. On the other hand, New Orleans's passing game showed its great level once again, with Drew Brees giving the team enough production for a good win for them against their traditional main divisional rival. Now against Tampa Bay, even though the Buccaneers will surely cause problems to the Saints' running game with their excellent run defense, Drew Brees has a variety of good receivers that will torch Tampa Bay's pass defense apart. Darrelle Revis is likely to do a good job on Marcus Colston, but he can't be everywhere and the rest of Tampa Bay's secondary doesn't have a lot of quality. If Geno Smith was able to connect 25+26+21 yards passes against them last week, then Drew Brees shouldn't have any problems in pounding the Bucs' defense one more time.

On the other side, Josh Freeman is slumping since the last month of the past season and this is causing a lot of issues on the team's overall offense. Things in the locker room aren't looking any better as well, with an incident involving the coach electing Freeman as a team captain without consulting the players, something that cause a huge turmoil, especially after Freeman overslept and missed a team meeting. Tampa Bay had just two rushing first downs last week, a clear sign of the propensity they have to get themselves into 3rd&long situations, the kind of spot that the Saints' blitz will love to attack. On the other hand, with Freeman and consequently the team's passing game struggling, all attention are on RB Doug Martin that won't have the space that he needs to use his explosion to grab some big plays. I clearly see New Orleans as the better team between these two right now and so, I expect the Saints to pick up a comfortable win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 213 New Orleans Saints (-3) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker