NFL Week 11 Premium Play 11/14: Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

NFL Week 11 - 309 Indianapolis Colts @ 310 Tennessee Titans

Play #1

I expect this divisional game to be a low scoring affair. Tennessee lost their QB Jake Locker for the season and they will now have to start Ryan Fitzpatrick, who didn't look good at all when he had to replace Locker earlier on the season. Therefore, I don't expect the Titans' offense to take a lot of risks today and play it safe by giving an extra load of carries to their RB Chris Johnson, who should have an average game, as he was only able to have a good performance once in the whole season so far on a game against St Louis. Even though the Titans will struggle to advance in the field today, they should be able to burn the clock a lot with a run-oriented offense to prevent Andrew Luck from being in the field for a lot of time tonight.

On the other hand, I expect Indianapolis's offense to also struggle in here. First of all, Tennessee has an underrated defense and they are #12 in the league on pass defense DVOA, not bad! Then, Andrew Luck has been dealing with some problems in finding open teammates since his main target Reggie Wayne suffered a season-ending injury. Therefore, I don't expect Luck to throw a lot of long passes tonight against an underrated Titans defense. On the other hand, the Colts' offense is close to be a 50/50 one regarding throwing or rushing the football. However, they lost Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard early on the season and even though they traded for Trent Richardson, he has been disappointing and I don't expect him to have a big game tonight as well.

I believe both teams won't risk a lot tonight, as there is a lot in stake on this divisional contest. I expect a physical game, where both offenses will once again show that they have been in much better shape previously. Both teams have decent defenses and so, I believe this will be a low scoring affair. I'm taking the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 309/310 Under 43 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NFL Week 6 Premium Play 10/14: Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers

NFL Week 6 - 229 Indianapolis Colts @ 230 San Diego Chargers

Projected Line: San Diego by 3 points

I believe this is a terrible spot for Indianapolis. They are coming from a super physical game at home against Seattle and they have one of their biggest games in a long time next week on Sunday night when they host Denver on their first game ever against Peyton Manning. Therefore, and even though this is a MNF game, I believe the Colts won't be fully focused tonight.

It's an undeniable fact that San Diego's defense has been poor this season in both against the run and the pass. However, with Indianapolis missing two RB's in Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw, they will struggle on their running game tonight, as Trent Richardson hasn't been impressive at all since joining the team. Therefore, the Chargers' defense won't only have to really focus in stopping Indianapolis's passing game.

On the other hand, Indianapolis's defense has been really well against the pass and poor against the run, according to the stats. However, they faced a couple of poor QB's such as Ryan Tannehill, Blaine Gabbert and Terrelle Pryor. Philip Rivers (#4 in the league with 8.5 Y/C) will definitely be a much tougher opponent for the untested Colts pass defense. I believe San Diego has a clear spot edge in here and I also believe that they will be a tough matchup for an Indianapolis team that will be on both a letdown and lookahead spot tonight. So, I'll be taking the Chargers in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 230 San Diego Chargers (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NFL Premium Play 09/15: Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts & Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers

NFL Week 2 - 201 Miami Dolphins @ 202 Indianapolis Colts
NFL Week 2 - 207 Washington Redskins @ 208 Green Bay Packers

***6,5 points Teaser***

I expect Andrew Luck to struggle today against the Dolphins. The Colts' OL was very poor last week against the Raiders and things will only get tougher for them today, as they will face Miami, a team that has one of the best pass rushes in the league. With Luck being rushed several times today and with his limited number of good receiving options being even more limited today due to TE Dwayne Allen's absence due to injury. On the other side, Miami's offense isn't a great unit and so, I don't expect them to have a big game today. Ryan Tannehill struggled last week when he was under pressure from the Browns' defense and I expect the Colts to try to get to the QB today, especially via Robert Mathis. Mike Wallace was barely featured on week 1's game at Cleveland due to Tannehill's struggles and I wouldn't be surprised if that happens once again today. Miami's running game is also quite weak, so I don't see how this game will be a high scoring one at all. 

Green Bay lost at San Francisco last week, but they left a good image especially from their passing game. They were up in the scoreboard at the end of the scoreboard and they only lost the game because of one or two plays that could have gone either way and went into 49ers's way. On the other hand, Washington was comfortable defeated by Philadelphia last Monday, when their defense just couldn't stop Chip Kelly's offense, while Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris heavily disappointed with some really poor play. Even though I expect the Redskins' offense to play better today, I believe their defense will get crushed by Aaron Rodgers in bounce back mode. On a short week spot, after facing the very fast paced game of the Eagles, I believe this is the worst possible play for Washington's defense and so, they'll get crushed by Green Bay's powerful offense today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 201/202 Under 50 x 208 Green Bay Packers (-0,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker