Champions League Group Stage Week 1 Free Premium Play: Borussia Dortmund @ SSC Napoli

 

Borussia Dortmund @ SSC Napoli

Game Time: Wednesday, 2:45 PM EST

Borussia Dortmund has been one of the top European teams over the last few years, especially last season when they made the CL final. They are favored today at Napoli mostly because of this recent success. However, Napoli is such a good team that it can't have +220 ML odds (31% chances to win) against anybody right now! It's obvious that the oddmakers conversion to Asian handicap lines set this line into +0.25 for them and as long as we have this line, we have great value with the Italian team in here.

We are in presence in here of a renewed Italian team that will give a huge fight to Juventus in the Italian league this season. In fact, they are showing exactly that with three wins in three games, with nine goals scored and just two allowed. Napoli's main signings for the new season are all players with previous experience on these games (Reina, Albiol, Callejon and Higuain), besides their coach Rafa Benitez is an expert on European cups, with three European trophies with three different teams! Napoli always has a huge home crowd edge on these big games and it's always tough to beat an Italian team at home, let alone this very improved team. In fact, Bayern Munich last season couldn't win at Napoli against an inferior version of the Italian team in comparison with this year's team. 

On the other side, Borussia Dortmund had a good start at the Bundesliga this season, but they are currently playing without some key players in the midfield: Gundogan, Kehl and Piszczek, something important as Napoli has a great midfield line. Bottom line: we are in front of two powerful teams and so, I expect a tight game in here. Therefore, a +0.25 line for Napoli has a lot of value in here and so, I'll be taking the Italian team in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on SSC Napoli (+0.25) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

Champions League Group Stage Week 1 Free Premium Play: Ajax @ Barcelona

 

Ajax @ Barcelona

Game Time: Wednesday, 2:45 PM EST

Barcelona has a dream matchup today for their playing style, as Ajax will allow them to have some great moments of offensive soccer. Both teams have a similar system with an offensive minded soccer with a high percentage of ball possession: Johan Cruyff is the big influence in the soccer of both teams, so it's natural that both Barcelona and Ajax play in the same way.

The problem is that there is a huge difference between the individual talent of these two teams. Just like almost every Dutch team, Ajax has huge defensive problems. They are out of trouble when they can maintain the ball possession, but when they can't, their poor defense gets massively exposed, just like it will happen today. Ajax won't have the same approach that almost everybody has against Barcelona: put 11 men behind the ball. This has been reaffirmed by their coach Frank De Boer:

“Lots of teams have tried to beat them but if we stick to our style, I'll be happy.”

This will be Barcelona's first CL match this season and they saw their main rivals Real Madrid having a huge win at Galatasaray, including a hat trick by Cristiano Ronaldo. This will certainly make Barcelona be fired up for tonight, as these two teams always try to upstage the other at their first opportunity.

But the key matchup in here is to know what Ajax's offense will do tonight and I don't expect them to do a lot. Their best midfielder over the last few seasons Eriksen was sold to Tottenham at the trade deadline, something that is making Ajax struggle while finding a new playmaker with similar class. Siem De Jong is also still far from his best form after an injury layoff. So, Ajax will miss offensive flow tonight and with the Dutch team having a big domestic clash next weekend against PSV Eindhoven on the road, I believe De Boer will manage the effort of Ajax's players in the best way possible, especially if Barcelona takes an early lead like I expect to happen in here.

Last season, a much better Ajax team went to Madrid to face Real in the group stage and even though Real Madrid was already qualified and playing with a lineup of a mixture between starters and backups, they still defeat Ajax by 4-1. I expect something similar in here, so I'll be taking Barcelona today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Barcelona AH (-2.25) @ -138 / 1.72 on Pinnacle OR -139 / 1.72 on 5Dimes

Champions League Group Stage Week 1 Game Preview: Bayer Leverkusen @ Manchester United

Champions League Group Stage Week 1 Game Preview:

 

Bayer Leverkusen @ Manchester United

Game Time: Tuesday, 2:45 PM EST

Manchester United is as usual one of today's biggest public teams, with the oddmakers currently giving them a 55% chance to win, something that I completely disagree by the way. Their new head coach David Moyes is definitely not Sir Alex Ferguson and with that, Man Utd has been struggling on this early season. I'm not even talking about results, as getting a home draw against Chelsea or losing 1-0 at Liverpool isn't a big drama, but the truth is that they have been having several subpar offensive performances on this early season. They struggled to create scoring chances against Chelsea and Liverpool, but last week on a favorable matchup at home against Crystal Palace to bounce back and make an offensive statement. Even though they won that game by 2-0, their performance didn't convince me at all. The chemistry between the midfielders is lacking most of the time, with Robin van Persie being completely alone in the front. Man Utd's is normally a very quick team, with strong wingers, but Valencia, Nani and Young have been quite poor so far on this season. In fact, Man Utd was very benefited by the referees against Crystal Palace with a penalty kick resulting from a foul that clearly happened outside the area.

On the other hand, Bayer Leverkusen is clearly German's third team after Dortmund and Bayern, who are at the top of the European soccer right now. So, it's no surprise that Leverkusen is currently #3 in the Bundesliga, with four wins on their first five games. Just like Man Utd, they look forward to play using their wingers, but unlike Man Utd, Leverkusen is in excellent form right with Sidney Sam and Heung-Min Son creating a lot of scoring chances in both wings. Therefore, I expect a tight game, where Man Utd shouldn't really have a 55% winning chance, as they are only getting this treatment because of the team's reputation and not from their current level.

Late Info: The only issue with Leverkusen is that they have two key midfielders questionable for tonight: Gonzalo Castro and Lars Bender, something that makes me think twice in taking them tonight. I was also hoping for a AH +1 line, but I also don't think I'll be lucky in getting such excellent line in here.

Champions League Group Stage Week 1 Free Premium Play: Paris Saint Germain @ Olympiakos

 

Paris Saint Germain @ Olympiakos

Game Time: Tuesday, 2:45 PM EST

This totals line of 2.25 goals is the lowest totals line of today's game, but I don't agree with it, as it should have been dealing with a classic 2.5 totals line. The reason for such a low line is due to how PSG has been struggling to score goals at their domestic league, with eight goals in five games. However, the French league is known for being a competition for a quite low number of goals scored due to the defensive approach that most teams have. This is why that after five rounds, the French team with the most goals scored in the league has just 9 goals scored and the worst defense has eight goals allowed! The difference is that PSG will have a lot more space today that they have normally on their domestic league. Olympiakos is coached by Michel, an offensive minded coach, who stated the following about today's game: 

“We won't change our tactics from game to game because our team has been built to play a certain way. It's about being strong at both ends of the pitch. Our style of play has yielded some impressive results on the domestic front and we hope to carry that form into Europe.”

Now imagine players like Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Edinson Cavani and Ezequiel Lavezzi with more freedom on the front...

On the other side, I expect PSG to have problems on their defense today. They sold Sahko to Liverpool at the trade deadline and Alex is injured for tonight's game. So, PSG will have to improvise at the center back position today. Of course we are talking about different levels of competition, but Olympiakos scored 5 and 4 goals on their last two games, something that shows how much their coach Michel is obsessed with offensive football, while Mitroglou and Saviola are a solid duo on the front. Therefore, we should have been dealing with a 2.5 goals and not with the current 2.25 goals line, so I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.25 @ -110 / 1.91 on Pinnacle OR @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes

Champions League Group Stage Week 1 Free Premium Play: Juventus @ FC København

 

Juventus @ FC København

Game Time: Tuesday, 2:45 PM EST

This play might be considered as today's sucker bet, but I can't avoid taking Juventus on an easy win today. The group stage draw put the Italian team in the same group as Real Madrid, so both teams are very likely to stay in the top of this group at the end. However, it's important to win the group to secure an easier opponent on the knock-out stage, so Juventus will make sure they don't lose stupid points to have a chance of beating Real Madrid for the top place of the group.

Normally, domestic league champions from minor leagues tend to dominate their league but struggle in the group stages of the Champions League. Things aren't happening like this for Copenhagen, as they are just 10th in the Danish league right now with seven points in eight games! When you can't win consistently against inferior opponents, how can you be competitive against a top team like Juventus? You can't!

Juventus with Antonio Conte as their manager is back into being a top team in Europe. I don't include them into the tier 1 teams, where Barcelona, Real Madrid or Bayern Munich are, but they aren't that far from that level. Their tactic scheme is almost unique in Europe due to Andrea Pirlo's positioning and a team like Copenhagen will struggle to defend them today. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Juventus today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Juventus (-1) @ -141 / 1.71 on Pinnacle OR -155 / 1.65 on 5Dimes

Champions League Group Stage Week 1 Free Premium Play: Real Madrid @ Galatasaray

 

Real Madrid @ Galatasaray

Game Time: Tuesday, 2:45 PM EST

This contest is a perfect matchup for a high scoring game, so we are getting some good value in taking the Over in here. We don't even need to talk a lot from Real Madrid's offensive power, especially in the European competition. Cristiano Ronaldo was the Champions League's topscorer last season and for the new season, not only Real signed Gareth Bale who should be at the bench today, as also the young Spanish player Isco, who has been connecting the team's offensive game extremely well.

However, not everything has been great for Real this season. Their defense is struggling and their best defensive player Raphael Varane is out for today's game, so coach Carlo Ancelloti will have to make changes on defense due to injuries with Aberloa at left full back and Carvajal at right full back. Pepe is in terrible shape and Sergio Ramos just isn't reliable. On their last game at Villarreal, Real allowed 19 total shots and their keep Diego Lopez was the man of the match with some incredible saves. But on Champions League, it's Iker Casillas who will be the team's goalkeeper. So, Real Madrid is currently a world class offensive team with a subpar defense.

Galatasaray has a solid attack led by Sneijder, who didn't play in the team's last weekend game to save energy for today, and Drogba. I expect Drogba to single-handedly destroy Real's poor defense, while the crowd support will be huge as well as it always in Turkey. However, Galatasary's defense isn't good enough to handle Real's super offense. These two teams faced each other on the group stage of the Champions League as well, with Real Madrid scoring a combined of five goals in the two teams! I expect today's game to be another high scoring contest between these two teams and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.75 @ -132 / 1.76 on Pinnacle OR 5Dimes (same line)

Champions League Group Stage Week 1 Free Premium Play: CSKA Moscow @ Bayern Munich

 

CSKA Moscow @ Bayern Munich

Game Time: Tuesday, 2:45 PM EST

This totals line is the biggest one in today's game and it's in my opinion completely inflated, as it's taking in consideration the offensive level that Bayern showed last season with 15 goals scored in the six games of the group stage and not their current level.

Bayern Munich under Pep Guardiola is still trying to find its identity and this process might still take a while. They're trying to introduce Guardiola's famous "Tiki Taka", but they haven't been effective so far. They scored "just" nine goals on their first five games in the German Bundesliga, while showcasing some of the boring style that Barcelona had shown under Guardiola as well. Bayern has also several injured midfielders and that doesn't help them one bit, but bottom line Bayern isn't currently the same offensive threat to their opponents that they were last season. The good news for the German team is that their defense has been phenomenal with just two goals allowed so far in the Bundesliga. The fact that they have a very high ball possession percentage helps them, as it prevents their opponents from having the ball to try scoring chances.

The German team will be facing CSKA Moscow tonight, who has its game based on a solid defense led by world class goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev. CSKA is already leading the Russian league once again, but they have just 12 goals scored in eight games (the worst mark of the league's Top 7!). They compensate that lack of offensive production with an excellent defense, with just six goals allowed. I have no doubt that CSKA will put all their 11 men behind the ball today, however they are a comfortable team on this kind of tactic. Their offense will be weaker than usual, as their best player Alan Dzagoev will be out of today's game and so, I don't expect CSKA to have a lot of scoring chances today.

Therefore, my projected totals line for this game would be 2.5/2.75 goals, but due to Bayern's great offensive production last season, we have this overrated line today. So, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 3,25 @ -114 / 1.88 on Pinnacle OR -116 / 1.86 on 5Dimes