NBA Premium Card 03/25

NBA - 651 Toronto Raptors @ 652 Cleveland Cavaliers

Play #1

Despite playing without Kyrie Irving, the Cavaliers’ offense has been decent lately mostly because D. Waiters and J. Jack are finally playing aggressively on the offensive end. CLE completely torched NYK defense (especially in the second half) by shooting 60% from the field. They did their damage primarily via PNR’ plays by Waiters & Jack attacking off the dribble vs. slow footed NYK’s guards.

Obviously, TOR’s perimeter defense is way better vs. NYK but the TOR’s PNR ball handler defense as of late has been subpar (at best). In my opinion that is happening mostly because Lowry & DeRozan are playing so many minutes that their effort on the defensive end has been inconsistent. Also, Spencer Hawes could cause some problems to J. Valanciunas due to his good shooting range.

On the other side, the Raptors are coming from a nice win vs. ATL even though they struggled offensively in the first 3 quarters. I had a play w/ Under in that game and I really predicted such struggles because TOR was coming from a brutal effort in the previous game vs. OKC (double OT) and w/ early start, they wouldn’t be able to play their best basketball.

For this contest, I expect Lowry and DeRozan to have decent offensive numbers because as good Waiters & Jack are on the offensive end, the same thing simply cannot be said on the defensive end.

My fair line for this contest is 197/198 points and w/ the current totals line, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ OVER in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651/652 Over 194.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 653 Portland Trail Blazers @ 654 Orlando Magic

Play #2

As expected, the Blazers had tremendous problems to score last night vs. MIA even though the Heat defense is far from being “elite” while we easily cashed w/ Under in that game. Without LMA, POR really need to be efficient via PNR’s w/ their guards but unfortunately for them, they were facing the #1 ranked PNR defense in the league. The final outcome wasn’t pretty as Lillard went just 3-15 FG while POR as a team combined 2-10 FG in total PNR plays.

However, the Blazers’ defense bounced back after their disastrous performance @CHA and for tonight, I really expect them to come out fired up… they won’t overlook the lowly Magic!

The good news is that ORL PNR defense is ranked #21 and the Magic perimeter defense is really struggling as of late: In L10 games, ORL is allowing 36.9% from 3pts (ranked #20) and in L5 games = 40.7%!!! We can expect POR offense to bounce back in this favorable matchup…

On the other end, ORL will play without Jameer Nelson and their ball movement without him is subpar. They have only in A. Afflalo a legit outside shooter so POR will put Matthews or Batum on him. Also, ORL don’t have an imposing inside game so POR defense has all the conditions to be decent tonight and therefore, I expect them to win this contest by a safe margin.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653 Portland Trail Blazers (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 657 New York Knicks @ 658 Los Angeles Lakers

Play #3

For this contest w/ this 217 total pts line, we are basically dealing w/ a potential “run and gun” contest, but the problem is that this won’t be a run and gun game!

First of all, note that NYK is coming from a truly pathetic defensive performance vs. CLE where they allowed CLE to hit 60% of their shots while they simply couldn’t stop Waiters and Jack to attack them off the dribble. CLE torched them via PNR’s as NYK didn’t have their best perimeter defensive player Iman Shumpert available.

The good news for today is that LAL guards’ are more “spot up” shooters instead of being aggressive off the dribble. Also Shumpert is back and will play tonight.

 On the other end, LAL is now playing w/ two post players w/ J. Hill and K. Kaman (P. Gasol is OUT for tonight and he will be replaced by Kaman in the starting lineup). With these two players, LAL will play a bit slower while their interior defense improves a bit vs. the times LAL played a SF @ PF position.

The X factor of this contest will be the “TEMPO” IMO… the Knicks don’t want to run! I’ve lost one “Under” play by a ton of points w/ NYK vs. PHI simply because I was WAY off on my pace factor projections…basically, I expected the 76ers to dictate the tempo of the game turning the contest into a fast paced game, but the reality was that the game was a slow paced one. I expect the same thing to happen in here while the Knicks will be a bit more focused defensively after their defensive collapse vs. CLE in the last game and so, we have some value w/ Under in this particular Totals Line of 217 points.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 657/658 Under 217 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker