NBA Premium Card 03/20

NBA - 707 Milwaukee Bucks @ 708 Golden State Warriors

Play #4

We’ve lost our Over play w/ GSW vs. ORL, but it wasn’t because GSW didn’t produce on the offensive end. Actually, GSW toyed w/ the Magic in the first three quarters by scoring 87 points.

For this contest, they will face the awful perimeter defense of the Bucks (who are allowing 39.3% from 3pts in L10 games), so we can expect the Warriors to be super efficient on the offensive end especially via Curry and Klay Thompson.

This Bucks team doesn’t have a true identity. Usually, it is their opponent that dictates the pace of the game. For example, according to my numbers, the game vs. slow footed NYK had pace factor = 83.6 but against the fast tempo Blazers in the last game = 100.1! Obviously, I expect this contest to be a fast paced game because the Warriors will want to push the pace…

MIL’s offense has improved dramatically as of late…their ball movement is better: L6 games 24.5 assists/game vs. 12.8 TO/game and w/ Bogut banged up and without Iguodala, MIL’s guards will have some favorable matchups vs. Curry and Thompson.

GSW’s next game after tonight’s contest will be vs. SAS so it’s pretty legit to expect them to “relax” a bit vs. this lowly Bucks team. My fair line in here is 209/210 points and therefore, I’m taking the Over as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 703 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 704 Houston Rockets

Play #1 & #2

I understand that the Wolves are in a bad physical spot after playing last night @DAL in a game that went to OT and so, 3 MIN’s players logged more than 40 minutes.

However, I really liked the way the Wolves played vs. DAL w/ great offensive flow and w/ the “best” Ricky Rubio of the season. MIN’s aggressive defense created 16 TO’s while feeding their transition game that was spectacular, especially in the first quarter. This can be important for tonight because the Rockets are a team prone to commit a high number of TO’s.

Even though rookie G. Dieng played well last night, the Wolves would be eaten alive by Dwight Howard down low. The good news is that Howard is OUT for tonight and Asik simply doesn’t have the same (if any) offensive skill to punish the Wolves down low.

I expect this contest to be a pure run and gun affair. HOU’s game plan will be to push the pace and wear down the fatigued Wolves but I expect MIN to answer pretty well and therefore, I’m taking both the Wolves and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 215 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Minnesota Timberwolves (+7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 705 Washington Wizards @ 706 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #3

In this contest we have two teams that are coming from OT games and so, a potential physical letdown isn’t out of sight in my opinion.

We are dealing w/ two teams that basically are jump shooting teams w/ few to little presence down low. LMA is OUT for POR while Nene Hilario will miss the game as well. POR is averaging just 37.8 pts per game in L8 games and coincidently, the Wizards are averaging the exact same number in L8 games.

With both teams primed to attempt a ton of outside jumpers, note that both WAS and POR are defending pretty well from 3pts in L10 games, WAS is allowing 35.7% (ranked #11 in the league during this stretch) while POR is allowing 34.8% (ranked #8).

Without Aldridge, the Blazers will run a ton of PNR’s and the Wizards defense is ranked #3 in the league defending those “plays”. Actually, the Wizards were able to defeat the Blazers at home early on the season mostly because they held POR to just 2-16 FG in PNR ball handler plays.

My fair line for this contest is 204 points and so, in my opinion we have the proper edge to play w/ Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker