NBA - 803 Miami Heat @ 804 Philadelphia 76ers
Play #1
They have now 3 games in a row so there is a sense of urgency from them for tonight:
"We need to get connected," coach Erik Spoelstra said after Wednesday's 114-97 loss at Washington. "It's not a matter of knowing what we do, knowing where to go. It's a matter of connecting and doing it.
"We have to own it. We can't just slide this one under the rug. That won't benefit us."
With a fired up MIA team on the court tonight, good luck 76ers!
I won’t take much team explaining why the Heat offense has some huge edges vs. PHI defense… basically, we have the #2 ranked offense in the league vs. #25 ranked defense in the league.
The X factor for tonight is related w/ the matchup MIA defense vs. PHI offense and there are 2 big factors that will work favorably for MIA:
1) PHI isn’t a good offensive rebounding team, for the season they are ranked #19 in Offensive Reb./rate but in the L10 games they had really a subpar number of 21.9% off. reb/rate%. As we know, MIA is a poor defensive rebounding team and so, by not being “owned” on the defensive glass, MIA will be able to get the def. reb and get out in transition…
2) Because they play at such fast pace & out of control, PHI is one of the worst teams in the league in committing TO’s – ranked #28 in Turnovers per Possession and this is super problematic against one of the best ball pressure defensive teams in the league. MIA will create TO’s with some ease and we can expect this contest to be a dunk-fest for MIA in transition.
MIA is looking for a big bounce back after being humiliated @WAS in their last game, and tonight’s matchup is super favorable for them. In normal conditions, MIA would “relax” vs. lowly PHI team, but not tonight…
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Miami Heat (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 805 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 806 Toronto Raptors
Play #2
Tonight’s game snapped an 11-games streak for TOR in which they have faced Eastern Conference teams… that says it all about how relatively easy their schedule has been during this 11-games span (they had only 3 “tough games” vs. MIA & IND).
TOR’s defense has been excellent; but again, just look for their opponents Offensive Rtg. rankings:
NYK #19
CHI #29
IND #17
WAS #21
MIA #2
DET #20
BKN #18
MIL #30
BOS #24
They have faced only one Top 10 offensive team in the league! I’m not saying that MIN offense is near the level of MIA’s offense but MIN is ranked #8 right now and they will cause more problems for TOR.
TOR’s frontline is a bit banged up for tonight’s contest: Tyler Hansbrough most likely will miss the game; Amir Johnson has a bad ankle and Jonas Valanciunas played sick in the last game @TOR. In the last game @BOS, TOR was completely dominated by BOS frontcourt – they had only 43.5% reb/rate and J. Sullinger completely owned them w/ 7-14 FG, 10-14 FT, 25 pts & 20 rebounds!
Well, MIN has Kevin Love & Nikola Pekovic on their frontcourt…
MIN is coming from a bad loss at home vs. SAC. I had a play w/ SAC+10 in the game because in a fast paced contest, this Kings team is a dangerous opponent for any team in the league and they simply outgunned the Wolves. TOR isn’t used to play in such fast tempo and I think that tonight’s flow of the game will favor MIN.
Rick Adelman was upset after another bad defensive performance from his team:
"We're so hands-off defensively," coach Rick Adelman said. "It almost takes an act of Congress to foul somebody. You have to get after people in this league."
So I expect MIN to be more active defensively tonight while their edge down low on the offensive end will be enough to win on the road and that’s why I’m taking them tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NBA - 815 Sacramento Kings @ 816 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #3
They were able to defeat OKC & MIL in L2 games via their defense b/c their offense was held to just 90 and 82 points. In those two games, MEM simply wasn’t effective down low near the basket, despite scoring 42 and 44 points in the paint, MEM went only 14-25 FG & 16-29 FG at the rim – subpar marks of 56% & 55.2%! However…just check it out OKC’s & MIL’s defensive rankings at the rim so far this season:
OKC #2
MIL # 6
What about SAC rim defense?
SAC #30!
Yep, the Grizzlies will face the worst rim defense in the league that is allowing almost 70% FG at the rim in L10 games – we can expect them to just pound SAC down low for +50pts in the paint. If we add the fact that Mike Conley is playing at a high level and will face Isaiah Thomas, then it’s easy to understand why I like MEM to enjoy an efficient performance tonight.
On the other side, SAC offense has been effective mainly because D. Cousins is dominating every big man in the league right now. If Roy Hibbert couldn’t defend him down low, I don’t think that “rusty” Marc Gasol will do better tonight.
MEM has been a subpar transition defensive team all season long - ranked #27, and this is good news for a SAC offense that are averaging 17.5 fast break points per game in L8 games.
With MEM feeling so confident right now, I think that they will have the mindset of “outgunning” the Kings in a fast paced affair, and therefore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Over 199.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 809 Charlotte Bobcats @ 810 Orlando Magic
Play #4
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
*GAME OF THE MONTH*
ORL was involved in a triple OT game vs. CHI in their last game, their Head Coach Jacques Vaughn usually doesn’t rotate his players and so, all their “key players” logged some major minutes:
Nelson 54min
Oladipo 57 min
Davis 47min
Harris 43min
They were able to hang around w/ CHI b/c they scored 60 points in the paint while having a good efficiency, but still they dished only 24 assists for 53 FGM -> assist/rate of just 45%!
Vucevic is still OUT for tonight’s game and the Magic has been completely outrebounded lately w/ subpar 46.1% reb/rate% L5 games.
It’s quite natural for them to have a physical letdown tonight…
The bad news is that CHA is really a tough matchup for them! CHA rim defense has been excellent all season long, so I don’t expect ORL to have such great numbers like they did vs. CHI. CHA is struggling to be competitive lately but note that most of their games have been against the best teams of West. Conference – fast paced game in which CHA’s really struggles to be competitive, this scenario won’t happen tonight.
Kemba Walker & Al Jefferson are the only CHA’s consistent players on the offensive end and both will enjoy some great edge on their individual matchups: Kemba will face the “old and slow” Jameer Nelson that is coming from playing 54 minutes in the last game! While Big Al will face an ORL team that really don’t have good interior defensive player that could stop him – ORL post up defense lately has been truly awful!
I understand that A. Afflalo will return tonight, but I expect him to be rusty and even if he is sharp offensively, CHA’s has now “back” on the rotation their best perimeter player in MKG!
I expect CHA to take advantage of their better physical for tonight while enjoying a favorable matchup w/ the Magic on the offensive end.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 809 Charlotte Bobcats ML @ -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 817 Portland Trail Blazers @ 818 San Antonio Spurs
Play #5
POR has been in “low cost” mode vs. lowly teams as of late but tonight’s game will be a good challenge and I expect them to be more focused. SAS is having some problems to beat the best teams in the league in this season and w/ 2 key players banged up I really think tonight’s game will be a tight one decided only in the last few possessions, and therefore I’m taking the points w/ POR in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 817 Portland Trail Blazers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 821 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 822 Denver Nuggets
Play #6 & #7
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
I really don’t think that suddenly, they will change their mindset for tonight’s game vs. CLE…
CLE interior’s defense has been awful lately – they are allowing their opponents to shot almost 70% FG at the rim in L10 games while their P&R defense has been awful as well… w/ Irving, Jack and Waiters, we really couldn’t expect anything different, right?
For some reason, CLE has allowed 102 pts @ UTA, 124 pts @SAC, 118 pts @ LAL & 108 pts @POR in their last game!
However, I also expect CLE to have some great edges on the offensive end. First of all, I don’t think that DEN will be 100% focused on defense…after all, they defeated the Warriors on the road while outgunning them, their mindset will be the same tonight…
The problem is that CLE is one of the best P&R ball handler offensive teams in the league as their guards are extremely aggressive in attacking the rim off P&R’s and DEN’s defense is ranked #28 in the league!
CLE was super competitive last game @POR w/ the game tied at 96 w/ 2:30 to go, and I expect them to be once again competitive while this contest is going to be a shootout!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 821/822 Over 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 821 Cleveland Cavaliers (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 823 Golden State Warriors @ 824 Oklahoma City Thunder
Play #8 & #9
Kevin Durant played 43 minutes, Ibaka 37 minutes and Reggie Jackson 35 minutes! Despite scoring 104 points, once again OKC struggled to have a decent A/TO ratio – only 18 assists for 38 FGM! They had 25 FT’s for the night but Kevin Durant alone had 20 of them, so we can say that OKC’s offense without Westbrook is yet to impress…
I expect GSW to be more focused on defense tonight than in their last game vs. DEN at home. They were rested and their mindset in that game was to play @ DEN’s tempo and outscore them and the final outcome was a disaster so for tonight, I expect them to be once again be more defensive oriented!
NOTE: Westbrook’s numbers vs. GSW this season are simply amazing: G1: 13-20 FG, 31 pts, 9reb and 5 assists; G2: 10-25 FG, 12-15 FT, 34pts, 7 assists and 5 steals, he won’t play tonight…
The X factor IMO for tonight is related w/ matchup between Durant and Iguodala! Just look for Durant’s minute’s numbers in L3 games: 40, 41 and 43min! Fatigue is going to be an issue tonight especially against such a terrific defensive player like Iggy is! W/ Durant struggling a bit in the second half w/ tired legs, OKC’s offense is really stagnant and that’s why I like GSW to win tonight in a relatively low scoring game!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 823/824 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 823 Golden State Warriors (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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