NBA - 509 Los Angeles Clippers @ 510 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: 205 points
On the first game of the season between these two teams, I correctly took the Over 202. There was some unfamiliarity between the two teams and both teams were able to shoot very well at the rim, with Denver shooting 28-33 FG and the Clippers 22-28 FG! The LA team also shot 6-10 FG from 3-9 feet. This was something strange to happen, as Denver is #1 on rim defense by allowing just 59.7% FG at this area, while the Clippers are #9 while allowing 62.7% FG! With some defensive adjustments for tonight and with a lot more physicality between the two teams, I expect these two teams to have much worse numbers at the rim today! Of course, some layups and dunks in transition will be inevitable, however they won't be repeating these ridiculously good numbers from the first game for sure!
Both teams were also great on transitions in that game, with the Clippers shooting 11-16 FG and Denver 10-16 FG! Finally, the Clippers were also excellent from the perimeter with 11-25 3pts! Basically, these two teams were on their best offensively in that game, while their defenses should have had played better, especially near the basket. I believe this game will be much more physical than the first one was, while both teams will also make a better job in defending the rim this time around. Therefore, I don't believe in a repeat of the complete shootout that the first game of the season between these two teams was and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 207,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment