Sunday, December 30, 2012

NBA Premium Play 12/29: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets


NBA - 515 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 516 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 10 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Houston will play their fourth game in five nights, with this game being also a back to back game, as they lost last night in San Antonio. On the other hand, Oklahoma City had one day to rest and prepare for this game, after beating Dallas at home on overtime last Thursday Night. This is a very poor spot for the Rockets and this is especially bad for them, as they have very little depth on their roster. They depend a lot from their starting lineup and yesterday against the Spurs, Chandler Parsons played 44 minutes, James Harden 41 minutes and Jeremy Lin 36 minutes. With Carlos Delfino questionable due to illness, the options the Rockets have on their roster get even more reduced. Now against a top team like Oklahoma City, they will heavily struggle tonight.

The Thunder are #1 on pick and roll ball handler defense and therefore, I believe they will do a good defensive job, especially with Thabo Sefolosha and Russell Westbrook defending the Rockets backcourt. Houston's defense is quite poor as seen yesterday and they are especially bad on transitions, where Oklahoma City will absolutely pound them tonight. With the Rockets on a poor spot, they won't be able to hang in the score on a very fast paced game against a team in a decent spot and with players like Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Martin. I expect an easy win for the Thunder in here and so, I'll be taking them on this contest on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 515 Oklahoma City (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 12/29: Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls


NBA - 509 Washington Wizards @ 510 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: 177 points | Chicago by 15 points

Washington is coming from a rare win against Orlando last night, where Nene Hilario and Kevin Seraphin pounded the Magic down low. However, one thing is facing Cleveland and Orlando, while another completely different thing is facing a Bulls defense that is #1 on post up defense and has allowed just 59% FG at the rim over the last ten games. With no edge down low on offense, Washington will heavily struggle on offense, as their perimeter shooting is quite bad, while Chicago's perimeter defense is also good by being #4 on 3pts defense and #10 on 16-23 feet defense.

With the postponement of their game at Indiana, Chicago had a lot of time to prepare for this game. They are coming from a humiliating home blowout loss against Houston on Christmas Day, so with Luol Deng and Richard Hamilton probable for tonight, I expect them to pound Washington's poor defense today and get an easy win. Therefore, I'll be taking the Bulls in here. I expect the Wizards offense to get shutdown tonight, so I'll be taking the Under in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 181 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Chicago Bulls (-10,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 12/29: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets


NBA - 507 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 508 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Line: 51 points

NOTE: No writeup for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 48 FIRST QUARTER @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 12/29: New Orleans Hornets @ Charlotte Bobcats


NBA - 505 New Orleans Hornets @ 506 Charlotte Bobcats

Projected Line: 186 points

Both teams will play their third game in four nights, while this being also a back to back game. New Orleans is coming from an overtime home loss against Toronto. Greivis Vasquez torched Jose Calderon and this is why the Hornets ended the game with 6-16 FG in pick and roll ball handler plays. On the other hand, Kyle Lowry did a much better defensive job on Vasquez. They will now play in Charlotte, with Eric Gordon making his season debut but on limited basis of course. The first game between these two teams was a high scoring game where both teams were on a good spot, something that doesn't happen in here.

Both Greivis Vasquez and Austin Rivers played more than 40 minutes and they will now face a Bobcats defense that is #8 on pick and rolls defense! So, it won't be easy for the Hornets to score tonight, as Greivis Vasquez will be limited tonight. They will be able to have some damage on the outside, but the Hornets have been regressing on 3pts%, something normal as Ryan Anderson is their sole good shooter on the roster.

Charlotte's offense depends on transitions and pick and roll ball handler plays and the truth is that New Orleans's defense is just #13 on fast break points allowed. However, they played on such a slow paced rhythm that they never get torched on transitions. The problem with the Hornets defense is on the perimeter, as they are #27 on 3pts defense. However, Charlotte's offense is just #24 on 3pts%, so they won't take advantage of that today. Therefore, I expect a slow paced game in here, with both teams having average offensive performances, not enough for this game to be a relatively high scoring game. So, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 12/29: Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic


NBA - 503 Toronto Raptors @ 504 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: 178 points

*** TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Both teams will play their third game in four nights, while this being also a back to back game. The Magic lost at Washington yesterday, in a game where they started well, but then everything fell apart. Washington shot a lot from the perimeter without success, but they did very well on transitions and down low with Nene Hilario and Kevin Seraphin dominating. Washington shot 20-24 FG at the rim! On the other hand, Orlando's offense looked good on pick and rolls with 9-18 FG, but their problem was on spot ups (8-25 FG from 16-23 feet and 10-28 3pts) and no interior game (13-20 FG at the rim).

In theory, Orlando won't get pounded tonight against Toronto in the same way they were against the Wizards last night, as Toronto doesn't have skilled frontcourt players to pound anybody down low. Toronto is a jump shooting team, but Orlando has a decent perimeter defense. This will be the third game between these two teams and even though Toronto scored 93 points in the last game, they scored just 28 points in the paint and 10 fast break points, no damage in the previously mentioned areas. They had good numbers on the outside shooting. Toronto's defense now with Kyle Lowry back should be able to guard Jameer Nelson better and with the Magic having Glen Davis injured, Toronto will be able to repeat the good defensive job they had in their previous game against Orlando. Therefore, I expect a very low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

***NOTE: Jameer Nelson is banged up. The play would be a Double Dime Play, but it will be a Triple Dime Play instead!***

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 12/29: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks


NBA - 501 Indiana Pacers @ 502 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: 178 points | pk line

Atlanta will play their third game in four nights, while also being on a back to back spot, while Indiana is on a back to back spot today. Atlanta has Anthony Morrow, Josh Smith and Ivan Johnson questionable for today, while Devin Harris is doubtful. With the Hawks being shorthanded right now, Atlanta is now using some players on heavy minutes, especially Josh Smith, Al Horford, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver and Louis Williams. The Hawks is coming from a road win at Cleveland, where they ended the game with a 9-0 run. Cleveland was very perimeter oriented with 13-23 FG at the rim, while they shot 10-22 FG from 16-23 feet and 8-21 treys! Atlanta showed again a poor dribble penetration defense, with Kyrie Irving shooting 12-20 FG and Dion Waiters 7-21 FG! On the other hand, Jeff Teague had 11-19 FG, 27 points and 8 assists. Atlanta did very well on their jumpers with 8-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 12-24 3pts!

Indiana is coming from a home win against Phoenix, where they started well with 58 points and 56% FG in the first half, just to almost lose at the end. The Pacers showed little effort on defense during the second half and this is why David West and some timely defense had to rescue the team down the stretch. With Goran Dragic out, George Hill had a big game with 9-13 FG. Phoenix shot a lot from the perimeter with 18-38 FG from 16-23 feet and 2-14 3pts. They also did well on cuts and Luis Scola and Marcin Gortat did well on the frontcourt at some moments of the game.

Atlanta's spot for tonight is much worse and against a physical team like Indiana, this can easily become a very serious problem. Atlanta was able to play well on transition over their last two games with 36 and 13 fast break points, however Indiana won't allow the Hawks to have this kind of plays, as they are #1 on transition defense and #1 on fast break points allowed per game. Indiana is also #1 on 3pts% allowed, so they won't allow the Hawks to shoot well from the perimeter. With Al Horford having big minutes again and with Josh Smith banged up, Atlanta will struggle to score against Indiana's defense. The Pacers will make this game a half court game and Atlanta's offense will struggle with their poor spot and poor matchup against Indiana's defense.

Atlanta's shorthanded backcourt is struggling to stop the dribble penetrations from their opposing guards, so this is a good chance for George Hill to have a big game. Atlanta defends post ups rather well and Zaza Pachulia will have big minutes today to prevent the Pacers frontcourt to have a big offensive game. This should be a tight game, but with Indiana's good defense and better spot making the difference, on a low scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking both Indiana and the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 183,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Indiana Pacers (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Saturday, December 29, 2012

NBA Free Premium Play 12/29: Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves

  
Phoenix  at Minnesota 
NBA - 513 Phoenix Suns @ 514 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Line: 191 points


Phoenix will play their third game in four days, with this being also a back to back game, while Minnesota had two days off to prepare this game. With Goran Dragic questionable for tonight and with their lack of alternatives for the PG position, Sebastian Telfair is now forced to play heavy minutes. He played almost the whole second half against the Knicks and yesterday, he played 41 minutes at Indiana. Phoenix's biggest struggle for tonight will be on the boards battle, as they are the #28 team on defensive rebounding, while Minnesota is #3 on offensive rebounding. The good news for the Suns is that they won't get torched on their perimeter defense today (#30 on spot up defense), as Minnesota doesn't have a lot of good outside shooters to torch them from the perimeter and that's why they are #30 in 3pts shooting with just 29.9% FG!


With Goran Dragic questionable, Phoenix's offense will be very predictable. The Suns attempted a ridiculous amount of shots from the perimeter with 18-38 FG from 16-23 feet and 2-14 3pts! They managed to have a decent game on cuts and on the frontcourt at times, but when Indiana forced on defense, Phoenix's offense disappeared. Minnesota is #30 on cuts defense, while Phoenix is #2 on cuts offense, so the Suns has an offensive edge in here, however Minnesota is a good defensive team on pick and roll ball handler plays and also on spot up defense, so with Dragic injured and on this poor spot for them, I heavily doubt Phoenix will have a decent offensive game. Therefore, I see this game becoming a low scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes