NBA Premium Play 05/17: Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 519 Los Angeles Clippers @ 520 San Antonio Spurs

Projected line: 200 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

What San Antonio did in Game 1 was just routine for them. They had an offensive rating of 116.9, nothing special having in account that in their first three games against Utah, they had offensive rates of 114.6, 127.1 and 115.9! Naturally that it will be hard for San Antonio to repeat the 13-25 numbers behind the arc, however note that most of those 3pts shots were a result of an excellent ball movement. No team in the league can even get close to the excellency of the Spurs floor spacing. 

Even though these numbers are very good, I believe that the Spurs can still improve in some aspects. It isn't normal for them to have 18 TO and some of them were actually quite sloppy. Tony Parker has been their best player this season, but he is coming from a really subpar game with 1-9 FG! That won't happen again tonight for sure! San Antonio also missed some easy shots at the rim, as their 15-26 FG mark proves it. Bottom line, San Antonio may not be as good behind the arc as they were in Game 1, but that should be more than compensated with less turnovers and with a better game from Parker.

In terms of the Clippers, Chris Paul played terribly in Game 1! He shot 3-13 FG, with 0-7 FG in the 2nd half. San Antonio decided to change the defensive coverage on him by daring him to go to the side instead of the top of the key, where he really excels and Paul really struggled to adjust to that. So, it was Bledsoe the star of the Clippers in Game 1 and his speed is a plus for the team: one of the weakest links of the Spurs defense is in fact their transition defense and Bledsoe can surely hurt them.

Game 1 had a pace of 92.6, the kind of pace San Antonio have been playing their postseason games and so, I'll expect this game to be a player in a similar pace. San Antonio's offense will shine once again as usual, while Chris Paul will bounce back today and lead his team to fine offensive night as well. Therefore, I believe this game will once again go Over the total posted and so, I'll take the Over in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 519/520 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 05/17: Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 517 Miami Heat @ 518 Indiana Pacers

Projected line: Miami by 8 points

***TOP PLAY***

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

So now that Chris Bosh is out with injury, Lebron "choked" again down the stretch and even Wade missed his 4 final FG attempts in the Game 2, are the Heat done? Not so fast!

The truth is that Game 2 was a hard fought game where Miami's defense didn't feel the absence of Bosh. Even by using Lebron in the PF position the majority of the time while Haslem/Anthony/Turiaf rotated in the center position, the Heat were great on defense, especially in the 1st half. Miami held the Pacers to 31.7% FG and forced 10 turnovers, as Indiana scored just 33 1st half points. They completely shutdown the Pacers' perimeter, who shot 3-15 3pts and 2-17 FG in spot up plays!

The real issue that Miami had in Game 2 was with Indiana's two big men Roy Hibbert and David West. These two players helped the Pacers to have the edge in rebounding (54% of the boards), when in Game 1 they had been outrebounded by the Heat (Indiana only grabbed 44% of the boards). Hibbert was an important factor when Miami decided to go small and that's why despite having just 8 points, Hibbert was so important for Indiana. On the other hand, West was important as always to the team, as he was the team's leading scorer with 16 points.

So, what will be the problem for Indiana in Game 3?

Well, Coach Vogel was forced to use both Hibbert and West way too much in Game 2. Note that his two backups Hansbrough and Amundson played only 5 and 7 minutes! For Hibbert, playing 33 minutes in a high intensity game can be problematic for a player who averaged less than 30 minutes per game during the regular season. In fact, until now his Playoff highest mark in minutes was 34 minutes against Orlando in Game 1, with him struggling in Game 2 by shooting 2-5 FG and scoring just 4 points against an undersized Orlando frontline. The same can be said about West. Until now, he played +40 minutes in two games and in the following next he struggled by not only grabbing 8 rebounds in each game (Playoff low), as he shot just 2-9 FG in the Game 3 against Orlando! With Miami playing with their usual stellar perimeter defense, if these two Indiana players have subpar performances, then the Pacers will really struggle on the offensive end, while they won't dominate the glass like they did in Game 2.

On the other side, Miami's offense really needs Bosh in order to be an elite team. However, I believe they have some margin of improvement from the first two games. First of all, it won't be hard to improve their 1-22 3pts mark in the first two games of the series. But the X factor will really be in Miami's stellar perimeter defense. Their defense was able to force 20 turnovers to Indiana, but that the Heat couldn't convert, as they had just 6 fast break points in 14 transition plays, with a poor 2-9 FG mark.

Also with coach Vogel deciding that Leandro Barbosa should be the Pacers' sixth man in this series, as he played 25 minutes in Game 2. Barbosa may be a good offensive player, however he has no court vision and he is a clear liability on defense that Miami will surely explore that in Game 3.

With all of these, I expect an easy win from Miami on this game, taking advantage of all the physical effort that Indiana's big men had in the previous game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Heat on the Moneyline today in a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 517 Miami Heat ML @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 05/16: Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 515 Los Angeles Lakers @ 516 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected line: Oklahoma City by 15 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The Game 1 of this series was a completely one sided game with Oklahoma City easily winning it. For today, we had 1 day off for these two teams to make some adjustments and naturally that the Lakers will try to adjust on the defensive end, something that won't be enough in my opinion to stop the Thunder once again. 

I've read some reports that say that the Lakers will try to make a better job defending Oklahoma City's Pick n Roll plays and even that Kobe will defend Westbrook since the start. In fact, 27% of the plays that Oklahoma City used in Game 1 were Pick n Roll ball handler plays and they performed well by shooting 9-22 FG on these plays with a nice mark of 1.00PPP. Their guards penetrated at will and then they made the right decision in shooting or passing the ball to the open man. This won't dramatically change for tonight's game or even throughout the whole series because both Bynum and Gasol won't suddenly stop being slow footed centers. Watching Bynum trying to close the gap in the roll man was almost comical and a bizarre exercise. This is the biggest weakness of the Lakers defense and that would be completely explored by the Thunder, as in all the four previous games between the two teams, Oklahoma City had always a DD points lead over the Lakers!

I said in my Game 1 write up that unlike Denver, the Thunder are a terrific outside shooting team and they proved that by shooting 9-15 FG from 10-15 feet, 7-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-17 3pts! Sure that they won't shoot like that tonight, but they won't certainly repeat those 3-19 3pts numbers that the Nuggets were doing against the Lakers in the previous round as well. Kobe decided to defend Westbrook in the second half of the Game 1 and the result of that was the Thunder starting the half with 7-7 FG! Kobe was never a good roll screener defender and it's silly for him and for coach Brown to think that he can match Westbrook's speed! He will burn out quickly and in this scenario, the "bad Kobe" forcing bad shots will most likely happen tonight. It would be a wise decision if Westbrook would have to defend Bryant as well, as the two players would spend a tough time on the defensive end, however Westbrook won't need to defend him, as Sefolosha is a defensive specialist and his solo role on the team is to defend Kobe on this series, with him being pretty good at it. So, it's clear to me that this decision about Kobe's new defensive assignment will hurt more the Lakers than Oklahoma City!

Perkins is questionable for tonight, as he is a gametime decision, but his presence or absence won't actually mean a lot to this game. Bynum had some success on offense during Game 1, even with him being defended straight up by Perkins. Bynum had 7-12 FG, 6-6 FT, 20pts and 14reb, with 4 offensive boards and 5-5 FG at the rim. So, it's clear that Bynum can have a "big game" that Oklahoma City will still be more than fine.

Even with the recent adjustments, I don't think that the Lakers will be capable of coming even near the score of Oklahoma City on this game. There are two clear great teams in the West and the Lakers aren't simply one of them. I expect another blowout from the Thunder today and so, I'll take them in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 516 Oklahoma City Thunder (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/16: Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers

NBA - 513 Boston Celtics @ 514 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected line: 168 points | Boston by 2 points

***The 172 points line is also available on Bodog and on Pinnacle***

Boston lost the Game 2 and they could really be down 0-2 in the series, but it's also true that they were leading the Game 2 down the stretch, but this time they've committed some bad errors on the offensive end. I would really enjoy for the teams to have 2 days off to rest and prepare the game, as in that scenario I would have a Top Play on Boston. I believe fatigue was the main reason why the Celtics lost the Game 2, as their best players just tried to hang around and finish off the Sixers late in the game. 

After the brutal effort from Rondo, Pierce and Garnett in Game 1, these three players were on the court less minutes during Game 2. Coach Rivers knew that they wouldn't be ready to play major minutes with the same level of energy and tried to manage their minutes. But this management was catastrophic in the second quarter, as they started the quarter with the following lineup: Dooling-Allen-Pietrus-Garnett-Stiemsma! Even though this lineup is consistent on the defensive end, they just couldn't generate good looks on the offensive end. I even saw for two and half minutes Stiemsma playing alongside with Hollins, yikes! Rondo, Pierce and especially Garnett tried to manage their energy and when the 4th quarter arrived, Garnett suddenly exploded and dominated in both ends of the floor. He scored 11 of his 15 points in the final quarter. but his energy was so overwhelming that he also committed some offensive fouls late in the game. Pierce also struggled not only by dealing with a bad knee, but also because Iguodala is simply one of the best perimeter defensive players in the league.

So, why do I like Boston for today?

Naturally, this has to do with the level of play from Philadelphia that has been far from convincing me. When I mentioned the bad lineups that coach Rivers was forced to use due to his tired starters, the Sixers should have blown out the Celtics during those stretches and instead of that, they simply hang around with Boston. When the Celtics decreased their offensive level, the Sixers simply hang around with them in this department and this is why it was ugly to watch the game during the 2nd and 3rd quarters. This makes that virtually every single game of this game should end up being a ballgame like the first two games of the series were. 

I haven't seen a lot of people talking about this, but I think that the decisions that coach Collins has been taking haven't been the best ones, especially in terms of lineups used down the stretch that will hurt them in long term. I've already mentioned that Boston has been using some small lineups with Garnett as center and Pierce in the PF position. To counter that, coach Collins used in Game 2 a lineup with Holiday-Louis-Turner-Iguodala-Allen. In my opinion, this lineup is terrible especially on the offensive end because Holiday, Louis and Turner are all players that need the ball in their hands and the ball movement simply wasn't there. When Louis has the ball, he won't give it back while Holiday and Turner aren't good with the ball off their hands. This decision from coach Collins resulted in Game 2, but I don't believe that they will have a lot of success in the future, especially knowing that Doc Rivers will certainly counter that in the following games starting today.

I have this contest to be a ballgame once again and as I don't trust in Collins' "down the stretch unit", I think that the Celtics have a great chance to win this game tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Boston in here. With just 1 day off to rest from Game 2, coach Rivers will be forced to use some bad offensive lineups once again today, while Philadelphia won't take advantage of that on the offensive end. I expect this game to be another ugly one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 172 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Boston Celtics (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Card 05/16

MLB - 951 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 952 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: C. Capuano vs C. Richard)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 952 San Diego Padres ML (w/ C. Richard) @ -103 / 1.97 on Betonline

MLB - 953 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 954 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: E. Bedard vs G. Gonzalez)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ E. Bedard) @ +129 / 2.29 on Betonline

MLB - 955 Miami Marlins @ 956 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs M. Minor)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 Miami Marlins ML (w/ M. Buehrle) @ +104 / 2.04 on Betonline

MLB - 959 Philadelphia Phillies @ 960 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: K. Kendrick vs M. Garza)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 960 Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 (w/ M. Garza) @ +145 / 2.45 on Bookmaker

MLB - 969 New York Yankees @ 970 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: H. Kuroda vs K. Drabek)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 New York Yankees ML (w/ H. Kuroda) @ -123 / 1.81 on 5Dimes

MLB - 973 Boston Red Sox @ 974 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: C. Buchholz vs J. Hellickson)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 973/974 Over 8.5 (w/ C. Buchholz & J. Hellickson) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes

MLB - 975 Oakland Athletics @ 976 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: T. Milone vs Y. Davish)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 976 Texas Rangers RL -1.5 (w/ Y. Davish) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes

MLB - 977 Baltimore Orioles @ 978 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Hunter vs F. Paulino)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 978 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ F. Paulino) @ -133 / 1.75 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 05/15: Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 505 Los Angeles Clippers @ 506 San Antonio Spurs

Projected line: 198 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

After being involved in a brutal physical series against Memphis, the Clippers will now start a series with San Antonio, a series that will be completely different from their previous one and where a good number of points will surely be scored. The differences between Memphis and San Antonio on offense are brutal, in terms of both efficiency and in the way they approach the game. Basically, San Antonio is a terrible matchup for the Clippers and this is clearly reflected in the series odds. The Clippers have some problems with their help defense especially in stopping dribble penetrations and the Spurs have Parker and Ginobili to punish them in this area. 

The Clippers were a terrible defensive team in spot up plays by being just #24 in the regular season in this area, while allowing 0.97 PPP. With the Spurs being #2 on spot up offense, I can surely expect a lot of problems for the Clippers in this series. This weakness of the Clippers wasn't explored by Memphis, as the Grizzlies aren't a good spot up offensive team and their 3pts shooting is just awful. In the 7 games of the series, Memphis had only one good 3pts shooting game, the first game of the series, where they shot 11-16 3pts, but after that, they combined 13-67 3pts in the following six games of the series! That's 19.4% 3pts! By the way, note that the Spurs shot 40.7% 3pts throughout the series against Utah.

But where the Spurs can really punish the Clippers is in the penetrations. The Clippers are especially poor at helping on penetrating guards, especially when Blake is on the court. When he was on the floor against San Antonio, Parker average a ridiculous 25pts 3reb and 10ast per 36 minutes, while shooting 60% FG that included 9-12 FG in the paint and 6-11 FG from midrange shooting. In fact, the Clippers only had success against the Spurs, in the game where Parker didn't play.

The playing style of San Antonio won't change against the Clippers. They will push up the pace and use their superior depth to run over their opponents. I believe the Clippers' defense will heavily struggle in stopping the Spurs offense in every game. On the other side, I also believe that the Clippers can cause some problems to the Spurs defense, especially in comparison to the problems the Jazz caused them. Both Utah and the Clippers have powerful frontcourt units, but the difference is that the Clippers can create problems from the outside, something that Utah couldn't do, as they are a poor outside shooting team. San Antonio lacks a powerful interior defensive team, but they could put a lot of pressure on the Jazz frontcourt, as they knew the Jazz guards couldn't hit a shot: 9-45 3pts! With the Clippers that won't happen, as they have good shooters and San Antonio won't have that huge edge that they had against Utah.

I expect this game to be played at a fast pace, with San Antonio having a huge offensive game and with the Clippers also causing the Spurs some problems on the defensive end. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 190,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/15: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

NBA - 511 Indiana Pacers @ 512 Miami Heat

Projected line: 181 points | Miami by 4 points

Indiana lost an excellent opportunity of stealing one game in Miami due to their incapacity in adjusting to the Bosh-less Heat in the second half. One thing was clear in that game: it won't be easy for Miami to score in half court sets against Indiana and even the Pacers' coach Vogel referred that in a timeout, late in the 4th quarter. However, Indiana had to fight foul trouble throughout the whole game. Miami shot 29-38 FT, but more important than that, it was the fact that they got quickly into the Bonus in every single quarter:

1st quarter: 7:16 to go
2nd quarter: 6:14 to go
3rd quarter: 8:10 to go
4th quarter: 4:31 to go

George Hill, Paul George and Roy Hibbert had to sit on the bench due to foul trouble and the Pacers defense was never able to produce at their standards in the second half. This is weird considering that Miami had to play without Bosh during the whole second half. My opinion is that Indiana couldn't be aggressive as they usually are and they ended up allowing the Heat to score 52 points in the paint, with 17-27 FG at the rim! It was so absurd in the second half that Miami had a 18-4 edge in points in the paint despite playing without a dominant big player.

Indiana also committed some sloppy turnovers that originated 18 points off turnovers from Miami, who also scored a good number of 18 fast break points. So, I believe the game plan for the Pacers tonight is quite obvious: they will try to explore their size advantage against Miami without Bosh. They will also try to slow down the pace and play with a more conservative style, just to avoid committing turnovers and then punish Miami in the half court, as in fact, the Pacers good first half in Game 1 was the result of the Pacers big men having solid games: West 4-5 FG 12pts, 4-8 FG 10pts and Hansbrough 4-4 FG 8pts! Then, Indiana lost their rhythm down the stretch, but they were competitive nonetheless.

It seems clear that this series won't be easy for Miami. Sure that they have Lebron and Wade, but the Pacers have good wing defenders in Granger, Hill and Jones. These players just took an expected blow in Game 1, as it is completely different playing against a non-aggressive offensive team like Orlando and then having to play against two of the best wing offensive players in the league, so we can expect the Pacers to be even more ready for the fight tonight.

Miami may have the edge down the stretch, but this spread line of 7 points is way too much for them on this contest, as I expect this game to be a slower half court game where Indiana can surely give the Heat a lot of problems. Therefore, I'll take the Pacers tonight. As I expect this game to be played at a slow pace and with the Pacers causing a lot of problems to the Heat offense, I'll be also taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 185,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Indiana Pacers (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker