I have a small lean for SAS to win the NBA Finals this season, but at the current prices, (SAS priced about @ -140) simply there isn’t the proper value in my opinion to give SAS more than 58/60% of chances to win the title.
Some interesting thoughts about this matchup:
In the playoffs, MIA has faced CHA, BKN & IND. While these 3 teams have different styles of play (especially BKN when compared to CHA & IND), all of them played at some serious slow pace:
Regular Season Pace Factor Rankings:
CHA #21
BKN #25
IND #20
…
SAS #10
MIA opponent’s game plans were similar through the playoffs – slow down the pace and dominate down low. I have some major doubts that the Spurs will employ the same strategy in the Finals because simply that’s not their style.
Tiago Splitter could possibly be the X factor of this series. In the last year’s finals, when MIA downgraded their lineup to a more “small ball” unit w/ Mike Miller instead of U. Haslem, they didn’t care about Splitter and things have worked pretty well for them. I’m curious to see what Popovich will do if the Heat keeps using the same strategy… He was flexible enough to not start Splitter in games 5 and 6 vs. OKC, so we can expect Pop to be more active in adjustments this season vs. last season, when he was clearly outcoached by Erik Spoelstra in my opinion.
For this first game both teams are rested and almost 100% healthy (Tony Parker’s injury is the only question mark). If you remember, this didn’t happen last season as the Spurs were coming from a sweep 4-0 series against MEM and had 9 DAYS to rest & prepare G1, while the Heat had a brutal physical series vs. IND that went to the distance and therefore, they had just 2 days to prepare the first game of the NBA Finals.
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Daily Message 06/05
Daily Message 06/05:
NBA 2013-14 Reg. Season RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 440-368-13 ATS | +140.1 units
NBA 2013-14 Reg. Season RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 440-368-13 ATS | +65.3 units
NBA 2013-14 PLAYOFFS RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 40-49-0 ATS | -43.4 units
NBA 2013-14 PLAYOFFS RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 40-49-0 ATS | -13.5 units
Daily Message:
I’ve been preparing the NBA Finals and the upcoming soccer World Cup in the last week while I’ve made some adjustments to my MLB handicapping and started to release detailed write ups for all plays – this will be the norm from now on.
For the first game of the NBA Finals, I’ve made a small series preview focusing in some key points. I’m releasing TWO plays for tonight’s game.
I’ve also released my first preview for the World Cup focused in the “group of death” w/ Germany, Portugal, Ghana and USA. I’ll make some future bets for the tournament and write more previews…
As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
For the first game of the NBA Finals, I’ve made a small series preview focusing in some key points. I’m releasing TWO plays for tonight’s game.
I’ve also released my first preview for the World Cup focused in the “group of death” w/ Germany, Portugal, Ghana and USA. I’ll make some future bets for the tournament and write more previews…
As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
MLB Premium Card 06/04
MLB - 953 Philadelphia Phillies @ 954 Washington Nationals
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Washington Nationals ML x 974 Tampa Bay Rays ML @ +126 / 2.26 on Betonline
I think that we are getting some nice value w/ TOR in here, as not only they are the best offensive team in the league but also, I believe that Dickey is in better form than Porcello. Dickey is coming from a subpar outing vs. KC in which he allowed 10 hits & 5 ER’s but, his 7/1 K/BB was a good indicator along w/ nice 3.46 FIP & 2.43 xFIP! He has good numbers vs. DET batters including a nice game LY w/ 7.0 IP, 2ER & 4/1 K/BB, so I expect him to be solid.
On the other end, we have a wild Rick Porcello on the mound. Porcello is a “pitching to contact” player and the fact that he is allowing so many walks lately is a bad sign – 9 BB’s in L3 outings! By putting so many base runners on the bases is dangerous especially when you are facing the hottest offense in the league – TOR is batting 0.300 in L14 days w/ 0.850 OPS! Good luck Porcello!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ R. Dickey) @ +102 / 2.02 on Bookmaker
MLB - 973 Miami Marlins @ 974 Tampa Bay Rays
WAS ML:
WAS easily dismantled PHI last night and I think that they will keep rolling in this series. WAS collectively had a nice .286 BA & .901 OPS in that game while R. Zimmerman collected 2 hits & 1 RBI. They will face Burnett in here and after a strong start for the season, Burnett is clearly fading lately. In L5 starts he has allowed 6, 3, 3, 4 and 5 ER’s while his K/BB ratios were subpar as well. Curiously, his last great start was against WAS @ 05/03 in which Burnett held WAS to just 1 ER. However, things have changed… not only Burnett is struggling a bit lately, but also, WAS offense is rolling right now. On the other end, the struggling PHI offense will face a rested S. Strasburg that is coming from an easy win vs. TEX, so like yesterday, I expect PHI offense to struggle in here.
TB ML:
TB has lost the last 8 games – all on the road! So their price for tonight is a bit inflated and so, no way I’m going to take them @Runline. However, I expect them to be focused and motivated to bounce back in here. TB offense is struggling heavily lately, but note that in the two games @MIA, TB had more hits than MIA in both of them! MIA SP T. Koehler is one of the most overrated pitchers in the league w/ 3.18 ERA but w/ 4.34 FIP & 4.54 xFIP! Curiously, the reverse has been happening w/ Price: 4.27 ERA vs. 3.24 FIP & 2.83 xFIP!
(Starting Pitchers: A. Burnett vs. S. Strasburg)
(Starting Pitchers: T. Koehler vs. D. Price)
Play #1
Play #1
***PARLAY PLAY***
WAS easily dismantled PHI last night and I think that they will keep rolling in this series. WAS collectively had a nice .286 BA & .901 OPS in that game while R. Zimmerman collected 2 hits & 1 RBI. They will face Burnett in here and after a strong start for the season, Burnett is clearly fading lately. In L5 starts he has allowed 6, 3, 3, 4 and 5 ER’s while his K/BB ratios were subpar as well. Curiously, his last great start was against WAS @ 05/03 in which Burnett held WAS to just 1 ER. However, things have changed… not only Burnett is struggling a bit lately, but also, WAS offense is rolling right now. On the other end, the struggling PHI offense will face a rested S. Strasburg that is coming from an easy win vs. TEX, so like yesterday, I expect PHI offense to struggle in here.
TB ML:
TB has lost the last 8 games – all on the road! So their price for tonight is a bit inflated and so, no way I’m going to take them @Runline. However, I expect them to be focused and motivated to bounce back in here. TB offense is struggling heavily lately, but note that in the two games @MIA, TB had more hits than MIA in both of them! MIA SP T. Koehler is one of the most overrated pitchers in the league w/ 3.18 ERA but w/ 4.34 FIP & 4.54 xFIP! Curiously, the reverse has been happening w/ Price: 4.27 ERA vs. 3.24 FIP & 2.83 xFIP!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Washington Nationals ML x 974 Tampa Bay Rays ML @ +126 / 2.26 on Betonline
MLB - 963 Toronto Blue Jays @ 964 Detroit Tigers
(Starting Pitchers: R. Dickey vs. R. Porcello)
Play #2
Play #2
On the other end, we have a wild Rick Porcello on the mound. Porcello is a “pitching to contact” player and the fact that he is allowing so many walks lately is a bad sign – 9 BB’s in L3 outings! By putting so many base runners on the bases is dangerous especially when you are facing the hottest offense in the league – TOR is batting 0.300 in L14 days w/ 0.850 OPS! Good luck Porcello!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ R. Dickey) @ +102 / 2.02 on Bookmaker
MLB - 965 Boston Red Sox @ 966 Cleveland Indians
(Starting Pitchers: B. Workman vs. C. Kluber)
Play #3
Play #3
I’m taking CLE to win the first 5 IP’s of the game! Corey Kluber has been pretty phenomenal as of late… he finished the month of May w/ stellar 1.74 FIP & 1.77 xFIP while facing some of the best offenses in the league – COL, BAL, DET & TOR! His matchup tonight, Brandon Workman is coming from b2b outings vs. TB. While he managed the damage w/ 2 and 3 ER’s allowed, he struggled a bit w/ pitch count (17.6 & 16.7 P/IP) and had poor 3/3 & 4/3 K/BB ratios to show. Note that he faced a cold TB offense while the Indians are hitting pretty well in this home span so I expect him to struggle heavily early on the game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Cleveland Indians 1st 5 Innings ML (w/ C. Kluber) @ -150 / 1.67 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Cleveland Indians 1st 5 Innings ML (w/ C. Kluber) @ -150 / 1.67 on Bookmaker
MLB - 969 Los Angeles Angels @ 970 Houston Astros
(Starting Pitchers: G. Richards vs. J. Cosart)
Play #4
Play #4
Garrett Richards got crushed in his last start vs. OAK, but I expect him to bounce back tonight. Richards has been solid all season long w/ 3.65 ERA and his advanced numbers are even better w/ 2.79 FIP, so I think that his disastrous performance vs. potent lineup of OAK was just an off day for him. On the other side, Jarred Cosart has overachieved and is due for a letdown. Despite allowing “only” 3, 3 and 1 ER’s in L3 starts, Cosart’s pitch count was super high w/ 20.4, 16.6 & 19.0 P/IP, obviously, he didn’t last long in those 3 starts (5.0, 6.1 & 5.0). Also note that his 2/4, 6/4 and 1/2 K/BB ratios were poor as well. He is a good matchup for the Angels’ offense tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ G. Richards) @ -135 / 1.74 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ G. Richards) @ -135 / 1.74 on Bovada
MLB Premium Card 06/03
MLB - 901 Philadelphia Phillies @ 902 Washington Nationals
(Starting Pitchers: D. Buchanan vs. J. Zimmermann)
Play #1
Play #1
In my opinion, the Nationals have a great spot to win easily vs. PHI tonight. They enjoyed a nice day-off yesterday, and we are dealing w/ the #3 ranked offense in the league in L7 days according to my numbers w/ 0.370 wOBA. Also, note that Ryan Zimmerman has returned to the lineup, so we expect WAS to be decent offensively. They will face David Buchanan in here, and I simply don’t trust him. Buchanan had just “OK” numbers in AAA w/ 3.98 ERA & 4.17 FIP and he was solid in his first start vs. LAD in which he had game log numbers of 3.60 ERA & 2.27 FIP! However, he had only 2 K’s and quite naturally, he was due for a letdown in the next start that indeed happened: 4 R’s, 3 ER’s and again, just 2 K’s vs. 2BB’s! I expect him to have some troubles tonight vs. WAS.
On the other end, Jordan Zimmermann is due for some quality outings. In his L4 outings, he has allowed 5, 3, 4 and 3 ER’s but his advanced numbers showed that he has been a bit unlucky as of late:
Vs. MIA: ERA=5.40 vs. FIP=2.47
@ PIT: ERA=6.00 vs. FIP=5.40
Vs. NYM: ERA=4.50 vs. FIP=3.74
@ ARI: ERA=7.94 vs. FIP=3.95
As you can see, in all those L4 starts, Zimmerman had ERA > FIP numbers! PHI offense is struggling lately – I have them ranked #25, #21 and #22 in the last month / L14 days & L7 days and so, we have a clear mismatch on the mound & offensively as well favoring the Nationals tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 (w/ J. Zimmermann) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker
On the other end, Jordan Zimmermann is due for some quality outings. In his L4 outings, he has allowed 5, 3, 4 and 3 ER’s but his advanced numbers showed that he has been a bit unlucky as of late:
Vs. MIA: ERA=5.40 vs. FIP=2.47
@ PIT: ERA=6.00 vs. FIP=5.40
Vs. NYM: ERA=4.50 vs. FIP=3.74
@ ARI: ERA=7.94 vs. FIP=3.95
As you can see, in all those L4 starts, Zimmerman had ERA > FIP numbers! PHI offense is struggling lately – I have them ranked #25, #21 and #22 in the last month / L14 days & L7 days and so, we have a clear mismatch on the mound & offensively as well favoring the Nationals tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 (w/ J. Zimmermann) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker
MLB Premium Card 06/01
MLB - 907 San Francisco Giants @ 908 St. Louis Cardinals
(Starting Pitchers: T. Hudson vs. L. Lynn)
Play #1
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ T. Hudson) @ -102 / 1.98 on Betonline
Play #1
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ T. Hudson) @ -102 / 1.98 on Betonline
NBA Premium Card 05/31
NBA - 523 San Antonio Spurs @ 524 Oklahoma City Thunder
Play #1 & #2
It is pretty curious that the L5 games of this series went all “Under” the total posted. The winning team of those games scored 112, 106, 105 and 117 points, so there was an obvious correlation between all those contests being blowout games w/ the fact that the losing team didn’t "show up" on the offensive end.
For tonight’s contest and for the first time in 6 games, I really think this contest is going to be a close game and naturally, both teams will score @ decent rate.
SAS’s coach Popovich made a smart move for G5, w/ Matt Bonner being inserted in the starting line instead of Tiago Splitter. Note that Bonner wasn’t particularly good at all… actually, he didn’t score a single point (0-4 FG!), but his presence made a big difference. Instead of facing a clogged paint, SAS offense had room to operate, and they were super aggressive. After being denied around the rim for two straight games + scoring just 3 fast break points, San Antonio bounced back to shoot 15-21 FG @ the rim & they scored 14 fast break points!
Not only the presence of Bonner created much more space for SAS offense, but also, it separated the Duncan-Splitter duo that has been very ineffective especially with the return of Ibaka.
In order to defeat OKC in G5, coach Pop was more focused w/ their own offensive problems than in stopping OKC offense…a good blueprint for tonight’s game.
I don’t think that OKC can make any substantial and impactful adjustments for tonight… by playing w/ a “stretch four”, OKC has to play small ball w/ SAS! They can play Ibaka @ center but still, he’ll have to deal w/ Duncan 1*1 and so, he won’t have the same room and space to help @ weak side.
Bottom line, I don’t expect SAS to struggle on the offensive end in the same way they struggled in G3 & G4!
Obviously, we can expect a strong bounce back from OKC - effort wise. OKC didn’t manage well the minutes of their star players in G4 (Durant played 41min and Westbrook 45min!) and they paid the price: they scored only 4 fast break points + “just” 20 free throws! We can expect them to be ultra aggressive for sure. However, the good news for SAS is that Popovich is a tremendous coach, and in the last game, only Leonard logged more than 30 minutes of action (33min), so fatigue won’t be an issue for SAS.
My fair line for this contest is OKC being a “marginal” factor and therefore, this 4-pts spread line has some value for SAS! I’m also playing w/ OVER because with the game on the line @ 4th quarter, we will get more points than the previous contests (trash time) in which both teams combined to score 38, 47, 44 & 36 pts!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 523 San Antonio Spurs (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
Play #1 & #2
It is pretty curious that the L5 games of this series went all “Under” the total posted. The winning team of those games scored 112, 106, 105 and 117 points, so there was an obvious correlation between all those contests being blowout games w/ the fact that the losing team didn’t "show up" on the offensive end.
For tonight’s contest and for the first time in 6 games, I really think this contest is going to be a close game and naturally, both teams will score @ decent rate.
SAS’s coach Popovich made a smart move for G5, w/ Matt Bonner being inserted in the starting line instead of Tiago Splitter. Note that Bonner wasn’t particularly good at all… actually, he didn’t score a single point (0-4 FG!), but his presence made a big difference. Instead of facing a clogged paint, SAS offense had room to operate, and they were super aggressive. After being denied around the rim for two straight games + scoring just 3 fast break points, San Antonio bounced back to shoot 15-21 FG @ the rim & they scored 14 fast break points!
Not only the presence of Bonner created much more space for SAS offense, but also, it separated the Duncan-Splitter duo that has been very ineffective especially with the return of Ibaka.
In order to defeat OKC in G5, coach Pop was more focused w/ their own offensive problems than in stopping OKC offense…a good blueprint for tonight’s game.
I don’t think that OKC can make any substantial and impactful adjustments for tonight… by playing w/ a “stretch four”, OKC has to play small ball w/ SAS! They can play Ibaka @ center but still, he’ll have to deal w/ Duncan 1*1 and so, he won’t have the same room and space to help @ weak side.
Bottom line, I don’t expect SAS to struggle on the offensive end in the same way they struggled in G3 & G4!
Obviously, we can expect a strong bounce back from OKC - effort wise. OKC didn’t manage well the minutes of their star players in G4 (Durant played 41min and Westbrook 45min!) and they paid the price: they scored only 4 fast break points + “just” 20 free throws! We can expect them to be ultra aggressive for sure. However, the good news for SAS is that Popovich is a tremendous coach, and in the last game, only Leonard logged more than 30 minutes of action (33min), so fatigue won’t be an issue for SAS.
My fair line for this contest is OKC being a “marginal” factor and therefore, this 4-pts spread line has some value for SAS! I’m also playing w/ OVER because with the game on the line @ 4th quarter, we will get more points than the previous contests (trash time) in which both teams combined to score 38, 47, 44 & 36 pts!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 523 San Antonio Spurs (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 523/524 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
MLB Premium Card 05/31
MLB - 961 Cincinnati Reds @ 962 Arizona Diamondbacks
(Starting Pitchers: J. Cueto vs. B. McCarthy)
Play #1
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 962 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ B. McCarthy) @ -106 / 1.94 on Bovada
Play #1
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 962 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ B. McCarthy) @ -106 / 1.94 on Bovada
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