Tuesday, August 28, 2012

MLB Premium Play 08/27: St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates


MLB - 901 St Louis Cardinals @ 902 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs A. Burnett)

The Cardinals are coming from winning a big series in Cincinnati and they have now the chance to get away from Pittsburgh in the wildcard race, so this will be another key series for the reigning champions. They will start Lohse today and he has been so impressive lately that he hasn't allowed more than four hits in any of his four starts in August! He has now produced 14 quality starts on his last 15 games and he keeps being one of the most consistent pitchers in the league. He will face a Pirates offense who has been missing in action for some time now, especially due to McCutchen's current slump, as he is just hitting .234 BA in August. Pittsburgh are the 4th worst team in the league in BA over the last 14 days with .221 and in a game against a good SP like Lohse, I expect the Pirates to struggle on offense once again.

The Pirates will start their ace Burnett, but he is clearly struggling in August, just like the rest of the team. In fact, he has posted a 5.27 ERA, 4.74 FIP and 3.44 xFIP in a combined of his August starts, while allowing his opposing batters to hit .277 BA. He has lost some of his effectiveness with his fastball and that has been making him struggle lately. With the Cardinals offense looking in fine form right now and with their roster hitting .322 BA and .779 OPS in 115 AB's against Burnett, I believe he will be in trouble tonight.

With St Louis having edges for this contest in terms of hitting, momentum and even in pitching, I believe the Cardinals will have a comfortable win tonight and so, I'll take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ K. Lohse) @ -114 / 1.88 on 5Dimes

Monday, August 27, 2012

MLB Free Premium Play 08/27: Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians

  
Oakland  at Cleveland 

MLB - 915 Oakland Athletics @ 916 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: B. Anderson vs R. Hernandez)


This is a good spot for Oakland, as they had a day off to rest yesterday and they are coming from a great series win in Tampa Bay. They will start Anderson today and he was amazing on his first start since returning from Tommy John surgery. He allowed just one run and four hits in seven innings against Minnesota and he looked sharp with 62 strikes in 86 strikes. He will now face an Indians lineup full of LH batters and they are clearly a team who struggles against LH pitchers by being just 27th in the league with a .658 OPS against LH pitchers. Due to his good return and the struggles that the Indians have against left handed pitchers, I believe Anderson will have another solid outing tonight.

On the other hand, Cleveland will start Hernandez tonight and he is struggling right now, as shown on the four runs allowed in six innings against Seattle on his last outing. He had terrible numbers on his two starts this season with 6.00 ERA, 5.60 FIP and 4.90 xFIP + 7.50 ERA, 7.93 FIP and 4.82 xFIP, so he is definitely in poor form and against an Athletics' roster that is hitting .282 BA and .728 OPS against him in 110 AB's, I believe Oakland will have a field day against the struggling Hernandez, formerly known as Fausto Carmona.
With Oakland having an edge in terms of spot, pitching (both SP and bullpen) and hitting, I expect the Athletics to keep showing their good moment tonight and have a comfortable win in here. Therefore, I'll be taking Oakland tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915 Oakland Athletics ML (w/ B. Anderson) @ -134 / 1.75 on Betonline

Sunday, August 26, 2012

MLB Premium Play 08/26: Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers


MLB - 977 Minnesota Twins @ 978 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: C. De Vries vs S. Feldman)

The Twins will be starting De Vries today and he is coming from an outing in Oakland, where he needed 112 pitches to get through 5.2 innings, while allowing two runs, six hits and three walks. De Vries just keeps struggling and against a red hot Texas offense right now, he'll be crushed today. 

On the other hand, the Rangers will start Feldman today, who is coming from an outing against Baltimore, where he allowed four runs and seven hits last Tuesday. He has been solid lately and he hasn't given up more than four earned runs since June 4. He allowed 4, 3 and 4 runs on his last three outings, but those games were against Baltimore, the Yankees and Detroit, so they were actually decent performances from him. Now against a much weaker Twins lineup, I believe Feldman will have a solid outing today.

With Texas having a clear SP edge and a huge hitting edge for this contest, I believe the result of this game will be the same that happened in the first two games of this series: two blowouts from Texas. Therefore, I'll be taking the Rangers on the runline today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 978 Texas Rangers RL -1.5 (w/ S. Feldman) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/26: New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians


MLB - 969 New York Yankees @ 970 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: F. Garcia vs U. Jimenez)

The Yankees will start Garcia today and he is coming from an outing against the White Sox, where he allowed five runs in 4.1 innings in a no decision. His recent game logs shows that he had a FIP lower 4.50 just once on his last five games, with that start being in Toronto with the Blue Jays almost presenting a AAA lineup. Just like his teammate Kuroda, Garcia struggles against LH hitters with 5.24 FIP and 4.50 xFIP and therefore, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Garcia struggles today against the Indians lineup full of lefties, especially when the Indians roster is hitting .339 BA and .932 OPS in AB's against him.

Cleveland will start Jimenez today and he is clearly struggling right now. His fastball has been terrible and with the Yankees being the best team in the league in hitting fastballs, Jimenez is into some big trouble today, especially when the Yankees are needing a bounce back on offense after struggling on their hitting in the first two games of this series. Jimenez has had some terrible outings already in August against the Angels and Detroit, therefore I believe the Yankees will also take advantage of Jimenez's struggles and pound him big time today.
 
With Garcia struggling against Cleveland's LH batters and with Jimenez being likely to have a nightmare outing against the Yankees, I believe this will be a high-scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969/970 Over 9 (w/ F. Garcia & U. Jimenez) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 08/26: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers


MLB - 967 Los Angeles Angels @ 968 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: E. Santana vs M. Scherzer)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

After Detroit's comeback win yesterday, the series is now tied at 1-1, with today's game deciding the winner of this key series for the wildcard race. The Angels will start Santana today and he has been having a poor season, with a 5.46 ERA, 5.65 FIP and 4.57 xFIP, even though he looked a bit better on his last two outings against Boston and Cleveland, where he had 2.84 ERA/4.84 FIP/4.18 xFIP and 1.29 ERA/2.38 FIP/3.01 xFIP respectively. Still, Santana keeps walking more batters than ever, while striking out less batters and having a much bigger HR/9 rate than usual as well. Now facing a powerful Tigers lineup on the road, I believe Santana will struggle a bit today and allowed some runs to the powerful Tigers.

Detroit will start Scherzer, who has already set a personal best for strikeouts in a season with 186 and he keeps looking impressive on his outings, as it happened once again on his last start against Toronto, where he allowed just one run on five hits, while having eight strikeouts and two walks, in seven innings. He didn't start the season well, but he is now one of the best pitchers in the league, with a 2.82 FIP and 2.55 xFIP. The Angels will play today without Pujols and even though the LA team has another quality batters on their lineup, the truth is that Scherzer is very likely to have another quality start today due to his amazing form.

With a clear SP edge on this contest and with both teams being in a similar level in terms of batters, I believe Detroit will be able to put Santana in more trouble than the Angels with Scherzer and therefore, I'll be taking the Tigers today in a Single Dime Play. With Pujols missing from the LA Angels lineup and Cabrera missing from the Tigers lineup, I believe both SP will be able to have at least average performances today and with the assist of the wind, I believe this will be a relatively low-scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be also taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ M. Scherzer) @ -146 / 1.69 on 5Dimes
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 967/968 Under 9 (w/ E. Santana & M. Scherzer) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/26: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies


MLB - 957 Washington Nationals @ 958 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Zimmernann vs C. Lee)

Washington will try to avoid getting swept on this series today and for that, they will start Zimmermann who has been having a superb season with a 2.54 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but he has just pitched six innings or less in his last eight starts. He is coming from an outing against Atlanta where he threw 102 pitches in just 5.0IP, while allowing 8 hits and 4 earned runs, while having just 2 strikeouts. Philadelphia's roster is hitting .289 BA and .770 OPS in 76 AB's against him and with Zimmermann struggling a bit right now, I believe Philadelphia will be able to make some damage on him today.

On the other hand, Philadelphia will start Lee who is coming from an outing against Cincinnati, where he had another quality start without getting a positive result out of it. He allowed just three runs (two earned) in 6.2IP, but he still didn't get a decision. Lee is coming from three outings against Cincinnati, Milwaukee and St Louis (the three top offenses vs LHP in the NL) and therefore, he slightly struggled on these contests. However, this time against an easier opponent, I believe Lee will dominate the Nationals' batters, who have lived better days on this season than they are right now.

I believe Philadelphia has a SP edge for this contest, while the Phillies are certainly hitting at least as well as the Nationals right now. Therefore, I'll be taking Cliff Lee and the Phillies to win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ C. Lee) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 08/26: St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds


MLB - 951 St Louis Cardinals @ 952 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: A. Wainwright vs H. Bailey)

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

With the series tied at 1-1, these two teams will fight today for the win that gives them the victory on this series. For that, the Cardinals will start today their ace Wainwright, who is coming from a complete game against Houston, where he shutout the Astros while allowing just five hits, while striking out 12 batters. He is now back on his best form and after a month of July where he had 2.18 FIP and 2.73 xFIP, he keeps being impressive in August as well, with 1.16 ERA, 2.00 FIP and 2.63 xFIP. He had a few struggles earlier on the season against the Reds when he was still looking for his best form, however looking at this current form and the fact that the Reds' roster is hitting .198 BA and .586 OPS in 131 AB's against him, I believe Wainwright will have another quality outing today.

On the other hand, Cincinnati will start Bailey today, who is coming from an outing in Philadelphia, where he allowed two runs and seven hits in 6.1 innings. Bailey keeps being impressive on the road with a 2.91 ERA and 3.11 FIP, but he definitely struggles much more at home with a 5.42 ERA and 5.63 FIP! Bailey has faced the Cardinals twice previously on this season and while on the first game, he was pounded with 4 earned runs in 5.2 IP, he was very lucky on his second outing against St Louis, with a 1.13 ERA on that game, but with a 4.97 FIP and 4.64 xFIP, in a game where he allowed 9 hits and had just 2 strikeouts, but he still only allowed 1 earned run. And if Wainwright dominates the Reds, the same doesn't happen with Bailey against the Cardinals, as the Cards' roster is hitting .328 BA and .979 OPS against him in 122 AB's. 

After Cincinnati's blowout win yesterday, I expect Wainwright to help the Cardinals bounce back with a dominant performance, while the in-form Cards batters should put Bailey in a lot of trouble today. Therefore, I'll be taking St Louis on this contest. Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 951 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ A. Wainwright) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline



MLB - 953 Houston Astros @ 954 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: L. Harrell vs J. Hefner)

NOTE: No writeup for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Houston Astros ML (w/ L. Harrell) @ +147 / 2.47 on Betonline